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Brexit Deal agreed ( updated )


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3 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

 

 

Good to see you making an effort at finding sources instead of asking everyone else to do it for you.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Thanks?

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4 minutes ago, Dawnrazor said:

So, how does his business success and experience compare to yours? 

I prosume he knows nothing through years of running a successful business but you do because you're good at finding things on the Internet that suit you remain point of view? 

 

Guy runs a successful business so he must be right.

Yet much, much, larger businesses like Nissan are worried about it. They're bigger, more experienced and more successful, so they must be more right - right?

 

I see you've given an article with businesses that supported brexit two years ago, but what's that got to do with no deal brexit being a good idea?

 

 

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7 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

 

 

 

 

So, one news report in the Telegraph, dating from before the referendum, and including business leaders who were no longer in business at the time the article was published.

 

 

First one I found, my point is that there are business people, very successful business people, who are for Brexit, you and others make out its only the stupid, racist, ignorant leave voters who are for it. There are I'm sure other articles supporting a pro Brexit argument if you, who seems to be very good at finding things on the Internet, if you want to look for them, I just googled and saw that first to show how easy it was!! 

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2 minutes ago, Smithee said:

 

Guy runs a successful business so he must be right.

 

 

Not right, there is no right and wrong in this! 

But do I listen to a successful business man who for years has built up a multi million pound business and employs god knows how many people or do I listen to Smithee who is good at finding things on the Internet? 

 

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2 minutes ago, Dawnrazor said:

Not right, there is no right and wrong in this! 

But do I listen to a successful business man who for years has built up a multi million pound business and employs god knows how many people or do I listen to Smithee who is good at finding things on the Internet? 

 

 

Yet you aren't listening to Nissan, responsible for a third of Britain's car industry, a global behemoth worth billions and employer of many many times more people than wetherspoons.

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4 minutes ago, Smithee said:

 

Yet you aren't listening to Nissan, responsible for a third of Britain's car industry, a global behemoth worth billions and employer of many many times more people than wetherspoons.

Where did I say I wasn't listening to Nissan? 

Edited by Dawnrazor
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17 minutes ago, Dawnrazor said:

First one I found, my point is that there are business people, very successful business people, who are for Brexit, you and others make out its only the stupid, racist, ignorant leave voters who are for it. There are I'm sure other articles supporting a pro Brexit argument if you, who seems to be very good at finding things on the Internet, if you want to look for them, I just googled and saw that first to show how easy it was!! 

 

I'm in favour of the UK leaving the European Union. 

 

Why?  Not because it's good, and not because it's bad, but because there was a vote and the leave argument won.

 

So, in the world that we have to inhabit, the real debate is not between Leave and Remain.  It is about the nature of the UK's exit.  I have demonstrated the damaging effects of a no-deal Brexit by comparison to leaving with a deal.   I didn't do that by posting an opinion - I posted economic analysis produced by your own independent sources. You have posted an opinion, with no backup whatsoever.  I've asked you for something other than your own opinion or the opinion of someone else on JKB to back up your position.  You haven't posted anything.  You've posted something that has nothing to do with the question - it is a news article about a couple of hundred people in business who wanted the UK to to vote Leave in the referendum, but has nothing to do with the debate about the effects of leaving with no deal.  Who cares what a couple of hundred business people think when the Confederation of British Industry - which has 55,000 members - wants a deal done?

 

Your position is nothing other than an opinion, and it is not backed up by any objective and independent source.  If you want to get some evidence for your position go find it, and stop asking others to do it for you. 

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2 minutes ago, Dawnrazor said:

Where did I say I wasn't listening to Nissan! 

 

I didn't say you said it, but you're not giving them as much credence as a guy with a much smaller business, while claiming to use business success as a barometer.

 

I've been trying to find an advocate of no deal brexit who can talk about how the immediate aftermath would be dealt with, but I haven't found one yet who seems to appreciate the problems we face.

A simple paperwork change from 2 minutes to 4 minutes for trucks going through ports would result in tailbacks of approx. 20 miles on day one. Day 2 would be worse, I don't even want to think about week 2. We don't have the infrastructure, trained staff, paperwork etc at our ports to deal with this, so 4 minutes is ridiculously optimistic IMO, and we can't get it ready quickly, we need time to sort out standards, best practices, paperwork etc etc etc. And that's just the day to day port stuff, everything in Britain will be affected massively and prices will rise, quickly. 

 

We aren't set up to do business with the world on 30th March and we simply don't have the time to get set up, even if we could afford the massive costs involved in changing everything from buildings to forms to staff to training. 

 

There's a reason that even many pro brexit tory mps don't want a no deal brexit. 

 

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2 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

 

I'm in favour of the UK leaving the European Union. 

 

Why?  Not because it's good, and not because it's bad, but because there was a vote and the leave argument won.

 

So, in the world that we have to inhabit, the real debate is not between Leave and Remain.  It is about the nature of the UK's exit.  I have demonstrated the damaging effects of a no-deal Brexit by comparison to leaving with a deal.   I didn't do that by posting an opinion - I posted economic analysis produced by your own independent sources. You have posted an opinion, with no backup whatsoever.  I've asked you for something other than your own opinion or the opinion of someone else on JKB to back up your position.  You haven't posted anything.  You've posted something that has nothing to do with the question - it is a news article about a couple of hundred people in business who wanted the UK to to vote Leave in the referendum, but has nothing to do with the debate about the effects of leaving with no deal.  Who cares what a couple of hundred business people think when the Confederation of British Industry - which has 55,000 members - wants a deal done?

 

Your position is nothing other than an opinion, and it is not backed up by any objective and independent source.  If you want to get some evidence for your position go find it, and stop asking others to do it for you. 

? ? What an arrogant condescending post??

I'm asking anybody to anything for me, do it for yourself, my opinion is based on what I've seen and heard in the press on on the news, I suspect that's where a massive percentage of people get thier info from. 

As it's been pointed out, you post what suits You!! Everyone does, my opinion differs from yours, I can happily live with that, but seriously, get over yourself?

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18 minutes ago, Lord BJ said:

Apparently a large chunk of cabinet calling for second referendum if/when may deal rejected.  

 

 

 

The leave deal May has negotiated won't be improved and leaving without a deal would be ****ing mental.

 

So that leaves us with either not leaving at all or extending our notice period. Or both. I'm thinking probably both - extend with or without the EU's approval then try to find a way out of a bad situation. 

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5 minutes ago, Smithee said:

 

I didn't say you said it, but you're not giving them as much credence as a guy with a much smaller business, while claiming to use business success as a barometer.

 

I've been trying to find an advocate of no deal brexit who can talk about how the immediate aftermath would be dealt with, but I haven't found one yet who seems to appreciate the problems we face.

A simple paperwork change from 2 minutes to 4 minutes for trucks going through ports would result in tailbacks of approx. 20 miles on day one. Day 2 would be worse, I don't even want to think about week 2. We don't have the infrastructure, trained staff, paperwork etc at our ports to deal with this, so 4 minutes is ridiculously optimistic IMO, and we can't get it ready quickly, we need time to sort out standards, best practices, paperwork etc etc etc. And that's just the day to day port stuff, everything in Britain will be affected massively and prices will rise, quickly. 

 

We aren't set up to do business with the world on 30th March and we simply don't have the time to get set up, even if we could afford the massive costs involved in changing everything from buildings to forms to staff to training. 

 

There's a reason that even many pro brexit tory mps don't want a no deal brexit. 

 

 

6 minutes ago, Smithee said:

 

I didn't say you said it, but you're not giving them as much credence as a guy with a much smaller business, while claiming to use business success as a barometer.

 

 

 

I posted one successful business person who is for Brexit, there are others, you can look for them if you like, I'm not asking you to do it for m by the way, that would have Ulysses tumbling off his ivory tower!!! 

I completely accept that Nissan have a different opinion, but, as I said before, there are busines people of varying degrees of size and success, I mentioned Wetherspoons, it seems you and others completely ignore and discount thier view and opinions, opinions based on knowledge and experience, as Nissans views will be based on the same. 

I voted leave, my reasons were to see agricultural reform, immigration, laws and a few other things. I'd have been happy to stay in the EU if they'd change and improve, seems a very dictatorial thing to me. 

I, others disagree, feel that a democratic decision was made and must be accepted, others will disagree, I'm OK with that.

But a few people belittle others that can't just find and post links at the drop of a hat, it's like "aha, youre not a expert at finding articles so you know feck all"!!! 

That's all Im getting at. 

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11 minutes ago, Smithee said:

 

The leave deal May has negotiated won't be improved and leaving without a deal would be ****ing mental.

 

So that leaves us with either not leaving at all or extending our notice period. Or both. I'm thinking probably both - extend with or without the EU's approval then try to find a way out of a bad situation. 

Is there any evidence that "remain" would win a second referendum? 

Has there been much movement from leave to remain? 

I presume the second referendum idea is being pushed by remain voters thinking they'll win, what if leave win the second one with a bigger margin? 

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1 minute ago, Dawnrazor said:

 

I posted one successful business person who is for Brexit, there are others, you can look for them if you like, I'm not asking you to do it for m by the way, that would have Ulysses tumbling off his ivory tower!!! 

I completely accept that Nissan have a different opinion, but, as I said before, there are busines people of varying degrees of size and success, I mentioned Wetherspoons, it seems you and others completely ignore and discount thier view and opinions, opinions based on knowledge and experience, as Nissans views will be based on the same. 

I voted leave, my reasons were to see agricultural reform, immigration, laws and a few other things. I'd have been happy to stay in the EU if they'd change and improve, seems a very dictatorial thing to me. 

I, others disagree, feel that a democratic decision was made and must be accepted, others will disagree, I'm OK with that.

But a few people belittle others that can't just find and post links at the drop of a hat, it's like "aha, youre not a expert at finding articles so you know feck all"!!! 

That's all Im getting at. 

 

We face incredible, sudden, difficulties on 30th March if we leave without a deal, the likes of which we've never had to deal with. I'm still waiting for someone, anyone, from the no deal side who's prepared to go into them and put my fears to rest. 

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2 minutes ago, Dawnrazor said:

Is there any evidence that "remain" would win a second referendum? 

Has there been much movement from leave to remain? 

I presume the second referendum idea is being pushed by remain voters thinking they'll win, what if leave win the second one with a bigger margin? 

I don't know, you should ask someone who wants a second referendum. 

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15 minutes ago, Dawnrazor said:

? ? What an arrogant condescending post??

I'm asking anybody to anything for me, do it for yourself, my opinion is based on what I've seen and heard in the press on on the news, I suspect that's where a massive percentage of people get thier info from. 

As it's been pointed out, you post what suits You!! Everyone does, my opinion differs from yours, I can happily live with that, but seriously, get over yourself?

 

Of course it's neither arrogant nor condescending.  Asking a person who is rational, fair-minded and intelligent to back up their opinion with evidence is never arrogant or condescending..

 

Of course our opinions are different.  All I'm doing is asking if you favour no deal and if you do, can you support that with evidence in light of the substantial case for reaching a deal.  You, on the other hand, are flatly refusing to consider that question and instead you are pretending we disagree about Britain leaving the EU and arguing with me over that.  But we agree about Britain leaving the EU.

 

So, do you favour the UK exiting without a deal or don't you?  And if you do, what about the extra £110 billion of economic output that will be lost annually?  What about the approximately £37 billion a year lost in tax receipts?  What about the cost to taxpayers?  Or the damage to people who need public services?

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2 minutes ago, Smithee said:

 

We face incredible, sudden, difficulties on 30th March if we leave without a deal, the likes of which we've never had to deal with. I'm still waiting for someone, anyone, from the no deal side who's prepared to go into them and put my fears to rest. 

There were always going to be difficulties, the whole thing I think can be laid at the door of the EU, change and reform was called for and refused. 

I'm not sure about the effect on the EU Britain leaving will have, financially it has got to hurt, I think a last minute deal will be agreed, this seems to be the way the EU opporates. 

 

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1 minute ago, Ulysses said:

 

Of course it's neither arrogant nor condescending.  Asking a person who is rational, fair-minded and intelligent to back up their opinion with evidence is never arrogant or condescending..

 

 

And yet you manage to make sound both?

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Just now, Dawnrazor said:

And yet you manage to make sound both?

 

Do you favour the UK exiting without a deal or don't you?  And if you do, what about the extra £110 billion of economic output that will be lost annually?  What about the approximately £37 billion a year lost in tax receipts?  What about the cost to taxpayers?  Or the damage to people who need public services? 

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1 minute ago, Dawnrazor said:

There were always going to be difficulties, the whole thing I think can be laid at the door of the EU, change and reform was called for and refused. 

I'm not sure about the effect on the EU Britain leaving will have, financially it has got to hurt, I think a last minute deal will be agreed, this seems to be the way the EU opporates. 

 

 

The deal we have is the last deal they'll offer, it won't be improved, and no deal brexit is a mental idea if you even start to look into the ramifications. 

 

Re your referendum questions by the way, if there is another one, all they need to do is include the 2 million + British citizens living in the EU 27, it affects them heavily after all. Guess which way they're voting.

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3 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

 

 

 

Of course our opinions are different.  All I'm doing is asking if you favour no deal and if you do, can you support that with evidence in light of the substantial case for reaching a deal.  You, on the other hand, are flatly refusing to consider that question and instead you are pretending we disagree about Britain leaving the EU and arguing with me over that.  But we agree about Britain leaving the EU.

 

 

If a deal can be reached, I think and hope it will, then I'd much prefer that of course, if it can't then I think we need to leave, whether you like it or not, the biggest democratic decision was taken with the information we had at the time, of course things change and more information for both sides has moved on, this was inevitable in the time between the referendum and the vote. 

Ive seen and heard, on the news and press as I've said and no, I'm not going to post a link to everything I've seen or heard! both sides, I don't think the sky will fall in and we'll all die because we've no medicines or starve due to lack of food, I know there will be change and I'm not playing down the possible effects, but in a democracy surly the winning vote must be respected!? 

 

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8 minutes ago, Smithee said:

 

The deal we have is the last deal they'll offer, it won't be improved, and no deal brexit is a mental idea if you even start to look into the ramifications. 

 

Re your referendum questions by the way, if there is another one, all they need to do is include the 2 million + British citizens living in the EU 27, it affects them heavily after all. Guess which way they're voting.

I'm not convinced that nothing will happen on this deal, I know what they've said but I think a lot of this is posturing, how many times have last minute deals been done with the EU. 

If the first referendum excluded people living outwith the UK then surely the second referendum should and will be the same? 

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15 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

 

Do you favour the UK exiting without a deal or don't you?  And if you do, what about the extra £110 billion of economic output that will be lost annually?  What about the approximately £37 billion a year lost in tax receipts?  What about the cost to taxpayers?  Or the damage to people who need public services? 

See, you'll have to give me a bit time to reply, I'm on a mobile with fingers like bananas and can't type as fast as you ?

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10 minutes ago, Dawnrazor said:

If a deal can be reached, I think and hope it will, then I'd much prefer that of course, if it can't then I think we need to leave, whether you like it or not, the biggest democratic decision was taken with the information we had at the time, of course things change and more information for both sides has moved on, this was inevitable in the time between the referendum and the vote. 

Ive seen and heard, on the news and press as I've said and no, I'm not going to post a link to everything I've seen or heard! both sides, I don't think the sky will fall in and we'll all die because we've no medicines or starve due to lack of food, I know there will be change and I'm not playing down the possible effects, but in a democracy surly the winning vote must be respected!? 

 

 

 

Why are you asking me the question highlighted in bold red?  Why are you saying to me the item highlighted in bold blue?

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5 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

 

 

Why are you asking me the question highlighted in bold red?  Why are you saying to me the item highlighted in bold blue?

Aye, to be fair they are more aimed at people who want a second referendum because "thier side" didn't win, sort of went on a wee rant there, sorry. 

 

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27 minutes ago, Dawnrazor said:

I'm not convinced that nothing will happen on this deal, I know what they've said but I think a lot of this is posturing, how many times have last minute deals been done with the EU. 

If the first referendum excluded people living outwith the UK then surely the second referendum should and will be the same? 

 

The first referendum shouldn't have excluded British citizens living in the EU. How can it be democratic to take a vote on something that affects their lives so massively without them having a say? 

 

But at the end of the day, those in charge make up the rules. It's not based on what you or I think it should be, so who actually knows?

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24 minutes ago, Lord BJ said:

 

Tend to agree, feels that’s where it’s going. The politicians will not let a no deal happen. That seems pretty clear to me, despite the noise they make hard brexiteeers are a very minority in parliament.

 

May is a dead duck now so she can call a referendum without any real consequence. She done when this is done. 

 

I doubt the EU will be too difficult to deal with if we ask for an extension or cancellation. The status quo suits imo. 

 

(Hard brexit happens good chance I’m pestering you for where to buy in Amsterdam)

Agree with all of that, and in short, Haarlem! :)

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1 minute ago, Smithee said:

 

The first referendum shouldn't have excluded British citizens living in the EU. How can it be democratic to take a vote on something that affects their lives so massively without them having a say? 

 

But at the end of the day, those in charge make up the rules. It's not based on what you or I think it should be, so who actually knows?

I'm not disagreeing, I think they should've been in the vote, like I thought Scots not living in Scotland should've been allowed to vote in the Scottish referendum. 

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7 minutes ago, Dawnrazor said:

I'm not disagreeing, I think they should've been in the vote, like I thought Scots not living in Scotland should've been allowed to vote in the Scottish referendum. 

 

Yep, I lived in Holland for both, but who can honestly say they didn't affect me and mine?

Not being allowed to vote in general elections I understand, but a referendum on things with such far reaching, long term consequences is different. 

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5 hours ago, Smithee said:

 

Yep, I lived in Holland for both, but who can honestly say they didn't affect me and mine?

Not being allowed to vote in general elections I understand, but a referendum on things with such far reaching, long term consequences is different. 

 

I have to disagree.  If you want a say on the running of your chosen country it is only fair that you be a resident there and pay taxes.

 

If not, should only people who were born in Scotland but now live elsewhere get a vote or can long term residents or people with Scottish parentage have a say when they leave?  Where do you stop?

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22 minutes ago, frankblack said:

 

I have to disagree.  If you want a say on the running of your chosen country it is only fair that you be a resident there and pay taxes.

 

If not, should only people who were born in Scotland but now live elsewhere get a vote or can long term residents or people with Scottish parentage have a say when they leave?  Where do you stop?

 

I'd be inclined to agree with you.  There are moves to give Irish citizens abroad votes in our elections, and I can't say I'm all that gone on the idea.  We allow some voting by people who aren't citizens, but you have to be a citizen to vote on constitutional changes.

 

That said, my recollection is that UK expats could vote in the Brexit referendum if they were resident abroad for less than 15 years, though I'm open to correction on that.

 

Also, the "be resident there and pay taxes" argument trips over itself when you bear in mind that EU citizens living in the UK weren't allowed vote in the Brexit referendum, unless they were citizens of Cyprus, Malta or Ireland.

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6 hours ago, Smithee said:

 

The first referendum shouldn't have excluded British citizens living in the EU. How can it be democratic to take a vote on something that affects their lives so massively without them having a say? 

 

But at the end of the day, those in charge make up the rules. It's not based on what you or I think it should be, so who actually knows?

It should not have excluded EU citizens living and working here either. 

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3 hours ago, frankblack said:

 

I have to disagree.  If you want a say on the running of your chosen country it is only fair that you be a resident there and pay taxes.

 

If not, should only people who were born in Scotland but now live elsewhere get a vote or can long term residents or people with Scottish parentage have a say when they leave?  Where do you stop?

 

Thats why I agree people who leave shouldn't get a vote in general elections, they're for deciding how the country's run. But we're not talking about having a say in the running of the country, we're talking about removing people's EU citizenship when they live in the EU. How can it possibly be fair for them not to have a say in their future?

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The Mighty Thor

I can't believe anyone is seriously holding up serial opprtunist Tim Martin as a barometer of how brexit will work out.

 

He's a ****ing rocket.

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39 minutes ago, The Mighty Thor said:

I can't believe anyone is seriously holding up serial opprtunist Tim Martin as a barometer of how brexit will work out.

 

He's a ****ing rocket.

Is that the Australian who owns Wetherspoons?  An Australian and German (Can't remember her name) telling locals what to do about other foreign people.

 

 

I'll take it back, he's English, with a New Zealand accent. Still a prick.

Edited by ri Alban
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The Mighty Thor
9 minutes ago, ri Alban said:

Is that the Australian who owns Wetherspoons?  An Australian and German (Can't remember her name) telling locals what to do about other foreign people.

 

 

I'll take it back, he's English, with a New Zealand accent. Still a prick.

Tim Martin is interested in Tim Martin's bank balance so if he thinks Brexit is great then it'll be great for his personal fortune, that's all.

 

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13 minutes ago, The Mighty Thor said:

Tim Martin is interested in Tim Martin's bank balance so if he thinks Brexit is great then it'll be great for his personal fortune, that's all.

 

I don't really think that's so bad, unless you gain it by pissing all over everyone and everything. Like Boris, JRM and this cant.

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The Mighty Thor
5 minutes ago, ri Alban said:

I don't really think that's so bad, unless you gain it by pissing all over everyone and everything. Like Boris, JRM and this cant.

It's not great in the context of certain posters using this tool as a poster boy for the great philanthropic Brexit which will enrich the UK beyond our wildest dreams. 

Tim Martin gives not one single shit about the average punter in the UK. Fact.

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Just now, The Mighty Thor said:

It's not great in the context of certain posters using this tool as a poster boy for the great philanthropic Brexit which will enrich the UK beyond our wildest dreams. 

Tim Martin gives not one single shit about the average punter in the UK. Fact.

 

Especially if using as a comparison to an organisation like Nissan. Who, I'd guess import most of their parts for just in time manufacturing. And probably export a fair percentage of the cars they build. They'll also employ a lot of people in decent paid jobs in an area of the country that badly needs employers like that.

 

I'd be listening to them first.

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The Mighty Thor
5 minutes ago, pablo said:

 

Especially if using as a comparison to an organisation like Nissan. Who, I'd guess import most of their parts for just in time manufacturing. And probably export a fair percentage of the cars they build. They'll also employ a lot of people in decent paid jobs in an area of the country that badly needs employers like that.

 

I'd be listening to them first.

Nissan technically just assemble at Sunderland. Everything is made off site and shipped in.  

Or listen to Honda at Swindon who have two cavernous warehouses next to their plant which only hold 24 hours worth of components. They think they will need 9 days of stock to cover Brexit import issues. They calculate that they'd need 300,000 sq m of storage or the worlds biggest building if you like.

But a cut price publican kens best?

**** off

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14 hours ago, Smithee said:

 

The deal we have is the last deal they'll offer, it won't be improved, and no deal brexit is a mental idea if you even start to look into the ramifications. 

 

Re your referendum questions by the way, if there is another one, all they need to do is include the 2 million + British citizens living in the EU 27, it affects them heavily after all. Guess which way they're voting.

 

I was informed by the British Ambassador in Luxembourg that there are 3 million British citizens living in the EU and there is legislation going through the UK parliament right now which will allow them to vote in referendums going forward.

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Francis Albert
15 hours ago, Ulysses said:

 

Do you favour the UK exiting without a deal or don't you?  And if you do, what about the extra £110 billion of economic output that will be lost annually?  What about the approximately £37 billion a year lost in tax receipts?  What about the cost to taxpayers?  Or the damage to people who need public services? 

The £37bn is an annual figure for 15 years after we leave. Google "Full fact" for an analysis of (our/my) National Offfice of Statistics figures (it is an independent fact checking charity) and in particular a critique of the way the figures have been abused by the media, politicians and  our own Uly.

Like Dawnrazor I have difficulty with posting links. Sorry)

Edited by Francis Albert
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Just now, Francis Albert said:

The £37m is an annual figure for 15 years after we leave. Google Full fact for an analysis of (our/my) National Offfice of Statistics figures (is an independent fact checking charity) and in particular a critique of the way the figures have been abused by the media, politicians and  our own Uly.

Like Deawnrazor I have difficulty with posting links. Sorry)

+1 on the links posting.

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Francis Albert
1 hour ago, pablo said:

 

Especially if using as a comparison to an organisation like Nissan. Who, I'd guess import most of their parts for just in time manufacturing. And probably export a fair percentage of the cars they build. They'll also employ a lot of people in decent paid jobs in an area of the country that badly needs employers like that.

 

I'd be listening to them first.

Just in time production chains are amazing, and operate efficiently and without physical barriers across not just the EU but the world. I think it is all done with moonbeams and unicorns. Which I guess St Patrick drove out of Ireland along with the snakes.

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The Mighty Thor
8 minutes ago, Francis Albert said:

Just in time production chains are amazing, and operate efficiently and without physical barriers across not just the EU but the world. I think it is all done with moonbeams and unicorns. Which I guess St Patrick drove out of Ireland along with the snakes.

They are amazing and work brilliantly when the components turn up 'just in time'. If your parts are stuck on lorries in the queue to get over the channel then your production lines quickly stop and your high paid workforce are sitting doing feck all. 

Its not moonbeams or unicorns. Its reality. Something the brexiteers are failing to face. 

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25 minutes ago, Francis Albert said:

Just in time production chains are amazing, and operate efficiently and without physical barriers across not just the EU but the world. I think it is all done with moonbeams and unicorns. Which I guess St Patrick drove out of Ireland along with the snakes.

 

Non EU trade shouldn't be affected too much by this. The cargo generally moves through completely different channels at the port. For example in Rotterdam, the short sea and deep sea terminals are 50km apart. The deep sea vessels can be 20 times bigger than short sea.

 

What nobody is going to be ready for, is if short sea requires customs and excise declaration.

 

Talking of Ireland, a big problem for their exports to the EU is that much of it comes through the UK "land bridge". It slashes the journey time and, well there's not enough capacity on the slow ferries leaving Ireland anyway. It's vital for some foodstuffs leaving Ireland for the EU.

 

Industry experts in this don't believe we will not get a transition period. It's genuinely not possible to crash out  in March and the ramifications not to be huge.

Edited by pablo
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Francis Albert
6 minutes ago, The Mighty Thor said:

They are amazing and work brilliantly when the components turn up 'just in time'. If your parts are stuck on lorries in the queue to get over the channel then your production lines quickly stop and your high paid workforce are sitting doing feck all. 

Its not moonbeams or unicorns. Its reality. Something the brexiteers are failing to face. 

You miss my point. Parts turn up in time because the technical solution works inside and outside the EU (but of course could not possibly work in Ireland!).

Of course if we and the EU together choose to commit economic suicide (to adapt a phrase) then for a while they may not work.

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1 hour ago, andrew said:

 

I was informed by the British Ambassador in Luxembourg that there are 3 million British citizens living in the EU and there is legislation going through the UK parliament right now which will allow them to vote in referendums going forward.

 

As many as that? I had in mind there were around 2.2 million in 2014, but your source sounds better than my memory to be fair!

 

53 minutes ago, pablo said:

 

Non EU trade shouldn't be affected too much by this. The cargo generally moves through completely different channels at the port. For example in Rotterdam, the short sea and deep sea terminals are 50km apart. The deep sea vessels can be 20 times bigger than short sea.

 

What nobody is going to be ready for, is if short sea requires customs and excise declaration.

 

Talking of Ireland, a big problem for their exports to the EU is that much of it comes through the UK "land bridge". It slashes the journey time and, well there's not enough capacity on the slow ferries leaving Ireland anyway. It's vital for some foodstuffs leaving Ireland for the EU.

 

Industry experts in this don't believe we will not get a transition period. It's genuinely not possible to crash out  in March and the ramifications not to be huge.

 

Non eu trade will be affected, just not as massively. Right now a ship coming in from, say, Tunisia has to go through standardised eu paperwork, tariffs and their goods have to meet eu standards. 

As of 30th March, we have no standards agreed with Tunisia, no paperwork for them to go through and no agreed tariffs. Even if we go with WTO rules, there's a LOT to set up. We need to enter talks with our trading partners, reach agreement and take action to replace decades of practice. By the end of March. 

Edited by Smithee
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7 minutes ago, Smithee said:

 

As many as that? I had in mind there were around 2.2 million in 2014, but your source sounds better than my memory to be fair!

 

 

Non eu trade will be affected, just not as massively. Right now a ship coming in from, say, Tunisia has to go through standardised eu paperwork, tariffs and their goods have to meet eu standards. 

As of 30th March, we have no standards agreed with Tunisia, no paperwork for them to go through and no agreed tariffs. Even if we go with WTO rules, there's a LOT to set up. We need to enter talks with our trading partners, reach agreement and take action to replace decades of practice. By the end of March. 

They'll have you believe there's only 900,000 Brits living in The EU, and we're swamped by 4m. Total bollox. There's about 2m Brits working in the EU, plus pensioners.

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Francis Albert

For those interested (other than using forecasts, and even things that do not purport to be forecasts as "facts" to support their position), google "GDP Forecast Errors" . My favourite headline is on an FT article - "GDP Forecasts are difficult, especially about the future", based on a Yogi Berra-ism. In fact they are difficult even in relation to the  past - the UK GDP forecast for this year was reduced from 1.3% to 1.1% three quarters of the way through the year. Retrospective adjustments are often made after the year in question.

Yet small changes in annual growth rates more than 15 years ahead are treated or mistreated as gospel.

Edited by Francis Albert
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18 minutes ago, Smithee said:

 

As many as that? I had in mind there were around 2.2 million in 2014, but your source sounds better than my memory to be fair!

 

 

Non eu trade will be affected, just not as massively. Right now a ship coming in from, say, Tunisia has to go through standardised eu paperwork, tariffs and their goods have to meet eu standards. 

As of 30th March, we have no standards agreed with Tunisia, no paperwork for them to go through and no agreed tariffs. Even if we go with WTO rules, there's a LOT to set up. We need to enter talks with our trading partners, reach agreement and take action to replace decades of practice. By the end of March. 

 

I'm talking about the physical infrastructure as well as the customs clearance requirements. The trucks collecting cargo from the US won't be in the same queue as the truck collecting from the EU. 

 

In terms of clearance of non EU goods, you have to make an import declaration to customs and then pay an import duty and VAT. You do this through the classification and value of the goods. 

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