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Brexit Deal agreed ( updated )


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9 hours ago, Boy Daniel said:

Yes it happened. My wife who is a Health Visitor has families on her case load with children she never saw simply because they lived in their home county. 

 

Which benefits were they claiming?

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36 minutes ago, The Mighty Thor said:

I heard a guy from NI today who is of the opinion that the unintended consequence of Brexit is the over-performance of NI with the EU due to still being a part of the CU and this is making the Brexit project look like the sack of shite that it clearly is. 

The flat earthers of the DUP are raging that NI is becoming more aligned with the Republic and that puts the fear into them, the backward ^^^^s that they are.

 

He reckons that the Tories can't have the CU being a proven success and they're desperate to scupper the current arrangement.

 

Wouldn't surprise me in the slightest.

Agreed. When the DUP first kicked off at the NIP one of their number was confronted on BBC (can't recall by whom   , but a Tory "grandee") who basically said - the DUP need to stop making out this is a consitutional crisis, it clearly isn't.  And he said it quite forcibly. The DUP guy was abolutely ragin'.  But more to the point, no one at the BBC seems to want to call the DUP out on their "constitutional" BS. 

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17 minutes ago, Boy Daniel said:

Child allowance. 

 

It's the first I've heard of it, did this actually cause much of a stir?

And I assume we're talking people long established in this country as you can't get benefits in the first 3 years.

 

At least they're easily caught out if they don't send the kids to school, nursery, for jabs, etc.

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Just now, Smithee said:

At least they're easily caught out if they don't send the kids to school, nursery, for jabs, etc

That’s why my wife is aware of it. 
 

regarding benefits the time you wait is base on what category you are in when you arrive in the UK. 

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1 hour ago, Ulysses said:

 

Which benefits were they claiming?

It's to do specifically with Child Benefit which was being paid for  children of EU ex pats .

I don't know how widespread it was but it did happen IIRC. 

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41 minutes ago, Smithee said:

 

It's the first I've heard of it, did this actually cause much of a stir?

And I assume we're talking people long established in this country as you can't get benefits in the first 3 years.

 

At least they're easily caught out if they don't send the kids to school, nursery, for jabs, etc.

That wasn't the case at first but Cameron changed the law to prevent EU workers getting UK benefits on arrival as a sop to the ERG nutters. But needless to say, it was never going to be enough. This was mainly down to the flood of Polish workers moving here : the home office totally miscalculated the numbers they expected to move here. 

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Paisley jnr now claiming that Boris told him that he always intended to rip up or ignore the Protocol.

 

UK in the shite now.

 

Signs a legally binding international treaty for purely domestic political reasons, now trying to renege on that legally binding international treaty.

Talk about negotiating in bad faith(!)

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The Mighty Thor
18 minutes ago, Cade said:

Paisley jnr now claiming that Boris told him that he always intended to rip up or ignore the Protocol.

 

UK in the shite now.

 

Signs a legally binding international treaty for purely domestic political reasons, now trying to renege on that legally binding international treaty.

Talk about negotiating in bad faith(!)

Mail & Express spin it as EU persecution and the half wits that support him will lap it up.

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The Mighty Thor

temporary drivers, temporary butchers, temporarily allowing foreign drivers working time in the UK?

 

Temporary fixes, one permanent problem.

 

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From the Torygraph - who knew they kept ferrets ? 

 

Lord Frost will demand that Brussels allows the free movement of British pets in Northern Ireland as it emerged that "ferret wars" is the latest front in Britain's battle with the EU over a new Brexit deal

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3 hours ago, Boy Daniel said:

Child allowance. 

 

Fair enough.  It's unusual for someone to answer that question.  Usually they know somebody who knows somebody, etc. etc, but when asked for specifics they don't deliver.

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2 hours ago, NANOJAMBO said:

It's to do specifically with Child Benefit which was being paid for  children of EU ex pats .

I don't know how widespread it was but it did happen IIRC. 

 

Ireland is full of stories like this that never turn out to be true.  Perhaps the UK experience is different.  I always wondered about "Schrödinger's immigrants" - you know the ones, coming over here and taking our jobs while simultaneously coming over here and living on welfare.

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41 minutes ago, The Mighty Thor said:

temporary drivers, temporary butchers, temporarily allowing foreign drivers working time in the UK?

 

Temporary fixes, one permanent problem.

 

In other news, government temporarily suspends "taking back control" as "taking back control" has caused a  lack of control.

Welcome to the 1970s, W  Germany-style gastarbeiter. 

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2 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

 

Ireland is full of stories like this that never turn out to be true.  Perhaps the UK experience is different.  I always wondered about "Schrödinger's immigrants" - you know the ones, coming over here and taking our jobs while simultaneously coming over here and living on welfare.

I paid little attention to it at the time as I thought it was blatant anti EU propaganda. But also because I never really met anyone from Romania, Bulgaria, Poland who had kids ( we had  a fair number of EU workers  in my locale on farms/doing factory work) . They (kids) were few & far between. 

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47 minutes ago, The Mighty Thor said:

temporary drivers, temporary butchers, temporarily allowing foreign drivers working time in the UK?

 

Temporary fixes, one permanent problem.

 

 

How much difference do they actually think this will make?  According to official statistics, cabotage rights usage accounted for a lower percentage of internal freight transport in the UK than in any other country in Europe.  First of all, a lot of foreign haulage firms just aren't operating on UK roads now because the amount of trade with the continent has fallen.  But secondly, even if all the foreign hauliers were still on UK roads, they never accounted for more than 1% of UK domestic road freight.

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4 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

 

How much difference do they actually think this will make?  According to official statistics, cabotage rights usage accounted for a lower percentage of internal freight transport in the UK than in any other country in Europe.  First of all, a lot of foreign haulage firms just aren't operating on UK roads now because the amount of trade with the continent has fallen.  But secondly, even if all the foreign hauliers were still on UK roads, they never accounted for more than 1% of UK domestic road freight.

 

For context, they say this will add thousands of deliveries.  In 2019, HGVs made nearly 180 million deliveries in the UK domestic freight system.

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The Mighty Thor
41 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

 

How much difference do they actually think this will make?  According to official statistics, cabotage rights usage accounted for a lower percentage of internal freight transport in the UK than in any other country in Europe.  First of all, a lot of foreign haulage firms just aren't operating on UK roads now because the amount of trade with the continent has fallen.  But secondly, even if all the foreign hauliers were still on UK roads, they never accounted for more than 1% of UK domestic road freight.

It's a great headline that plays into the 'let me be clear, we're working hard to resolve XXXXXXX' narrative that this mob are renowned for, whilst not addressing the issue they've created for themselves at all.

 

 

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WorldChampions1902
3 hours ago, Smithee said:

 

It's the first I've heard of it, did this actually cause much of a stir?

And I assume we're talking people long established in this country as you can't get benefits in the first 3 years.

 

At least they're easily caught out if they don't send the kids to school, nursery, for jabs, etc.

I don’t give two hoots when people moan about these so-called immigrant benefits-scroungers who are legitimately entitled to what they claim. People who put forward that argument conveniently overlook the bigger picture that these immigrants are net contributors to the U.K. economy. In fact, they are greater net contributors than resident Brits.


To quote this article from The Economist,  “According to the government’s latest review on immigration, by the Migration Advisory Committee (MAC), immigrants contribute more to the public purse on average than native-born Britons do. Moreover, European newcomers are the most lucrative group among them. The MAC reckons that each additional migrant from the European Economic Area (EEA) will make a total contribution to the public purse of approximately £78,000 over his or her lifetime (in 2017 prices). Last year, the average adult migrant from the EEA yielded £2,370 ($3,000) more for the Treasury than the average British-born adult did.

 

 

617A4DBE-49FA-4160-AF4B-C821AEE5DFB7.jpeg

Edited by WorldChampions1902
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22 hours ago, Ulysses said:

 

I'm looking at our politicians here piously commenting on the environment, and then voting against improved public transport and safer segregated cycle routes for Dublin, and I'm not exactly optimistic.

Short term and pressured from interests .

I'm not sure democracy can deliver.

Nor it seems any other political system.

Glad my children dont have children yet.

 

Ach well nice while it lasted and heres hopin

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2 minutes ago, Ked said:

Short term and pressured from interests .

I'm not sure democracy can deliver.

Nor it seems any other political system.

Glad my children dont have children yet.

 

Ach well nice while it lasted and heres hopin

 

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But apart from that.

Does anyone see any hope in any political system ideology party independence movement or anything that has the answer to what unless you are a complete dingle  to what's coming?

 

Nothing else matters imo.

Sorry for the ub40 tune .

Just read up on the acceleration of predictions of climate change.

My 4 kids.

3 in their 30s 

Blessing is 14.

It really is all about them .

 

 

Not sure this thread is right one but you know.

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Why would anyone trust doing business with Boris' government.

8 hours ago, Cade said:

Paisley jnr now claiming that Boris told him that he always intended to rip up or ignore the Protocol.

 

UK in the shite now.

 

Signs a legally binding international treaty for purely domestic political reasons, now trying to renege on that legally binding international treaty.

Talk about negotiating in bad faith(!)

 

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2 hours ago, Ked said:

But apart from that.

Does anyone see any hope in any political system ideology party independence movement or anything that has the answer to what unless you are a complete dingle  to what's coming?

 

Nothing else matters imo.

Sorry for the ub40 tune .

Just read up on the acceleration of predictions of climate change.

My 4 kids.

3 in their 30s 

Blessing is 14.

It really is all about them .

 

 

Not sure this thread is right one but you know.

Independence. 

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1 minute ago, ri Alban said:

Why would anyone trust doing business with Boris' government.

 

If you didn't see Question Time , you really missed something. 

 

England bottled it because in 2019 England was  in meltdown. They signed a "deal " because of internal issues - and threats of a 2nd ref  from Labour. 

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1 minute ago, NANOJAMBO said:

If you didn't see Question Time , you really missed something. 

 

England bottled it because in 2019 England was  in meltdown. They signed a "deal " because of internal issues - and threats of a 2nd ref  from Labour. 

Stopped watching it lately. Total cringe.

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4 minutes ago, ri Alban said:

Stopped watching it lately. Total cringe.

First time in 3 years, was not disappointed.

 

It's f king awful.

 

Fiona " that's a nice  painting" Bruce must  go. 

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ciaran the euro courier Flag of European UnionFlag of Ireland
 
@donnyc1975
· 5h
The government Allowing unlimited cabotage in the U.K. by foreign trucks is a direct failure to fill the 5000 temp vacancies - they are desperateThe government Allowing unlimited cabotage in the U.K. by foreign trucks is a direct failure to fill the 5000 temp vacancies - they are desperate
 
Edited by NANOJAMBO
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WorldChampions1902
4 hours ago, ri Alban said:

Stopped watching it lately. Total cringe.

Stopped watching BBC QT just before the General Election when she shut down a rare Remainer member of the audience who tried to ask questions about the proven illegality of the Leave campaign. She said that “wasn’t proven” or similar.Then at the start of the next weeks QT Fiona Brexit, I mean Bruce announced that she wanted to correct her error about that question around Leave illegality during last weeks programme as it was a fact and not debatable or words to that effect. But it was job done because it suppressed the discussion.

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The brass neck of this. Johnson literally begging EU drivers to bail him out being spun as giving rights to EU workers which the EU is not reciprocating. 

 

 

Gavin Barwell

@GavinBarwell

This will help, but it is another example of how unequal the UK/EU trading relationship now is. We grant rights to EU drivers without anything in return for UK drivers BBC News - Lorry driver shortage: Government to lift rules on foreign haulier deliveries

Edited by NANOJAMBO
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6 minutes ago, NANOJAMBO said:

The brass neck of this. Johnson literally begging EU drivers to bail him out being spun as giving rights to EU workers which the EU is not reciprocating. 

 

 

Gavin Barwell

@GavinBarwell

This will help, but it is another example of how unequal the UK/EU trading relationship now is. We grant rights to EU drivers without anything in return for UK drivers BBC News - Lorry driver shortage: Government to lift rules on foreign haulier deliveries

 

Truly absurd comment.  I would call him something but it doesn't seem appropriate today.

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22 minutes ago, NANOJAMBO said:

 

 

 

Gavin Barwell

@GavinBarwell

This will help, but it is another example of how unequal the UK/EU trading relationship now is. We grant rights to EU drivers without anything in return for UK drivers BBC News - Lorry driver shortage: Government to lift rules on foreign haulier deliveries

 

Yes dear, you chose to be a 3rd nation.

 

This is how that works.

 

You won, get over it.

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I wonder if anyone's drawn Barwell a picture yet to explain that the more time UK drivers spend on European roads means less time spent driving on UK roads.

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On 14/10/2021 at 00:39, Ulysses said:

 

........ or (ii) a more important problem comes along that's bigger and tougher and that needs everyone's shared attention.

 

Good analysis, Uly.  👍  But surely there's already a growing queue of "bigger problems"  now facing the UK and the EU ?   Covid, climate catastrophe, energy crisis, China, Russia, N Korea, record debts throughout the western world, etc etc.   

 

From what I can tell, the EU has largely moved on from Brexit (although their positive response to the NI protocol complaints could be viewed as an admission that they got it wrong  during the trade negotiations 2 years ago ...... which for some bizarre reason BJ still signed up to ).     The EU's focus seems to have moved to the under-fire  legal & democratic structures in Poland & Hungary, as well as all things Covid...... and controversial Russian "offers" to supply more gas. 

 

The UK government is all over the place right now, with ridiculous sound bites being repeated by ministers at every opportunity.

 

"High skill, high wage economy"   can mean absolutely anything.   Covid has shown just how much society really depends on millions of  jobs related to moving goods around the country as part of vast supply chains.  It seems reasonable to ask politicians if they're happy for industry to start giving huge wage increases to warehouse workers & drivers (which would have t be paid for by consumers).   Same goes for the supply chains around farmers.

 

Meanwhile, the RHA wants government to help with recruitment  & training of new drivers - yet is now blaming the government for relaxing the rules on EU drivers touting for haulage jobs within the UK after they've  delivered their original load here, on the basis that they'll undercut UK drivers on job cost. 

 

As for "levelling up" ....   :facepalm:

 

 

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They simply don't care if inflation rises.

 

The Bank of England will put up interest rates to counter it.

They don't care if this then makes mortgages even more unaffordable for the young and the not well-off.

Their purple-rinse voting base will benefit from their savings getting better returns.

 

Inflation is around 4% already and at least one bank has jumped the gun and put their interest rates up.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Lone Striker said:

Good analysis, Uly.  👍  But surely there's already a growing queue of "bigger problems"  now facing the UK and the EU ?   Covid, climate catastrophe, energy crisis, China, Russia, N Korea, record debts throughout the western world, etc etc.   

 

From what I can tell, the EU has largely moved on from Brexit (although their positive response to the NI protocol complaints could be viewed as an admission that they got it wrong  during the trade negotiations 2 years ago ...... which for some bizarre reason BJ still signed up to ).     The EU's focus seems to have moved to the under-fire  legal & democratic structures in Poland & Hungary, as well as all things Covid...... and controversial Russian "offers" to supply more gas. 

 

The UK government is all over the place right now, with ridiculous sound bites being repeated by ministers at every opportunity.

 

"High skill, high wage economy"   can mean absolutely anything.   Covid has shown just how much society really depends on millions of  jobs related to moving goods around the country as part of vast supply chains.  It seems reasonable to ask politicians if they're happy for industry to start giving huge wage increases to warehouse workers & drivers (which would have t be paid for by consumers).   Same goes for the supply chains around farmers.

 

Meanwhile, the RHA wants government to help with recruitment  & training of new drivers - yet is now blaming the government for relaxing the rules on EU drivers touting for haulage jobs within the UK after they've  delivered their original load here, on the basis that they'll undercut UK drivers on job cost. 

 

As for "levelling up" ....   :facepalm:

 

 

 

I think the "shared problem" needs to be one that requires direct bilateral collaboration between the EU and the UK rather than something more multilateral in nature.

 

The UK was in a mad rush to "get Brexit done".  The EU tried to refine many aspects of the Protocol, but the UK government wasn't interested and the parties ran out of time - also, because of the sensitive and tricky negotiations that led to the Protocol, neither side was willing to re-open it in the closing weeks of the TCA negotiations for fear of everything unravelling.  I suspect that many of the concessions are a case of the EU unilaterally putting in ideas now that were suggested at the time but that couldn't be agreed by the parties.  The medicines one is interesting, though, because (AFAIK) the EU made a similar offer in 2019, but it was conditional on some reciprocal offer by the UK, but this proposal isn't conditional.

 

Brexit matters less to the EU than it does to the UK, because in relative terms EU-UK trade is less important to us.  The level of interest varies, and is highest in those EU countries closer to the UK.  The EU itself has some major strategic thinking to do, and it has issues arising from its flawed expansion to the East that are bigger than its relationship with the UK.

 

It'll be interesting to see how the reaction to the EU proposals goes over the next while.  I've spotted a couple of potential "devils in the detail", but I'm saying nothing. :laugh:

Edited by Ulysses
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13 hours ago, Cade said:

They simply don't care if inflation rises.

 

The Bank of England will put up interest rates to counter it.

They don't care if this then makes mortgages even more unaffordable for the young and the not well-off.

Their purple-rinse voting base will benefit from their savings getting better returns.

 

Inflation is around 4% already and at least one bank has jumped the gun and put their interest rates up.

 

 

 

Not forgetting that inflation is a particularly cruel and inequitable thing across the spectrum of wealth and income.  Inflation is bloody serious for those already counting every penny.  Those with larger living costs budgets and savings have infinitely more in the way of choices to mitigate the effects of inflation.

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The Real Maroonblood
13 hours ago, Cade said:

They simply don't care if inflation rises.

 

The Bank of England will put up interest rates to counter it.

They don't care if this then makes mortgages even more unaffordable for the young and the not well-off.

Their purple-rinse voting base will benefit from their savings getting better returns.

 

Inflation is around 4% already and at least one bank has jumped the gun and put their interest rates up.

 

 

I just wish I had hair never mind the purple bits.

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14 hours ago, Cade said:

They simply don't care if inflation rises.

 

The Bank of England will put up interest rates to counter it.

They don't care if this then makes mortgages even more unaffordable for the young and the not well-off.

Their purple-rinse voting base will benefit from their savings getting better returns.

 

Inflation is around 4% already and at least one bank has jumped the gun and put their interest rates up.

 

 

My missus works for a mortgage broker/finaniclal services company : for some time now (over a year ?) borrowers  are being asked if they can afford interest rates of 15%. 

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13 hours ago, Ulysses said:

 

 

The UK was in a mad rush to "get Brexit done".  The EU tried to refine many aspects of the Protocol, but the UK government wasn't interested and the parties ran out of time - also, because of the sensitive and tricky negotiations that led to the Protocol, neither side was willing to re-open it in the closing weeks of the TCA negotiations for fear of everything unravelling.  I suspect that many of the concessions are a case of the EU unilaterally putting in ideas now that were suggested at the time but that couldn't be agreed by the parties.  The medicines one is interesting, though, because (AFAIK) the EU made a similar offer in 2019, but it was conditional on some reciprocal offer by the UK, but this proposal isn't conditional.

 

 

I follow Tony Connolly of RTE and he's written an interesting article today on the EU "concessions".  The medicine issue seems to have been a matter of common sense prevailing over interpretation but more intersting is the spat over steel imports which he claims arose due to a lack of understanding on both side about how this should be managed. More worryingly is his analysis that the EU is ready for targetted retaliation under the TCA (think Harley - Davidson but in a UK context) if this all goes belly up - and the Telegraph is saying today the UK "could bear a trade war" with the EU. Those sunlit uplands just keep on giving. 

 

 

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11 hours ago, NANOJAMBO said:

I follow Tony Connolly of RTE and he's written an interesting article today on the EU "concessions".  The medicine issue seems to have been a matter of common sense prevailing over interpretation but more intersting is the spat over steel imports which he claims arose due to a lack of understanding on both side about how this should be managed. More worryingly is his analysis that the EU is ready for targetted retaliation under the TCA (think Harley - Davidson but in a UK context) if this all goes belly up - and the Telegraph is saying today the UK "could bear a trade war" with the EU. Those sunlit uplands just keep on giving. 

 

 

 

Tony's excellent. 

 

In any negotiation, the trick is to increase your leverage and take measures that damage the other guy more than you.  In broad terms, the EU has more scope to do that generally, whereas the UK has more scope in specific areas.  In broad brush terms, I'd say that the EU's best tactical approach would be to target particular sectors, goods and services, whereas the best tactical approach by the British would be to target countries - not directly, but by targeting particular sectors which would in turn affect particular countries.  One way or the other, Ireland is likely to be a central feature.

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