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The 2015 General Election Megathread


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Disagree. Both are not wanting to cede power from Westminster. It's a power grab nothing to do with what the home counties think.

 

What I meant was that those key marginals are what deliver power at Westminster.  PR would screw all of that up.  This is why Labour & Tory are so similar in policy, so as to win these marginals. Wales, Scotland (until recently I suppose!), the South East, South West, North East all tend to return a specific party so, in that sense, they are seen as a given.  PR would of course shatter that, thus making the MP's returned more representative of the electorates wishes.

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I'm expecting more calls for PR after the election if the polls play themselves out and the SNP get 56 seats with 4% of the vote, while UKIP get 4 with 15%, Greens 1 with 7% and the Lib Dems 25 with 7%.

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Jambos - help me to understand what is going on here?

 

Yet another poll showing the SNP winning lots of seats from Labour today.  Why are so many people prepared to back a party that just a few months ago asked us to back their plan for an independent Scotland based on oil at $110 a barrel?  Thanks to Labour and Gordon Brown stepping in at the last minute 55% said no.  If the country had backed Alex Salmond's plan, his first meaningful act as PM of an Independent Scotland would have been to go looking for a massive financial bail out.

so you know for a fact what the oil price will be in 15 months time then????

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Federalism - so nice and fluffy and neat and so not going to happen.

 

Quite.

 

A huge own goal by the Unionist parties to fail to comprehend the ramifications of devolution.  Appease by giving more power, but incapable of seeing that the centre (Westminster) needs changed too.

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Guest Trapper John

so you know for a fact what the oil price will be in 15 months time then????

 

Its pretty clear from what senior analysts and the industry itself are saying that the price is going to remain low for some time. It may never recover to such heights again.

 

You now tell us how honest John would have filled the gap in his (already screwed up while the price was $113 a barrel) figures?

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Its pretty clear from what senior analysts and the industry itself are saying that the price is going to remain low for some time. It may never recover to such heights again.

 

You now tell us how honest John would have filled the gap in his (already screwed up while the price was $113 a barrel) figures?

 

As posted previously, Chief of OPEC seems to think things have bottomed out and the only way is up!

 

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2015/02/03/opec-sees-oil-prices-exploding-to-200-a-barrel/22800331/ 

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There is something kind of unsettling about the level of glee that so many unionists seem to have about the lower oil price. It's almost like they're pleased that the Scottish economy isn't doing as well.

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There is something kind of unsettling about the level of glee that so many unionists seem to have about the lower oil price. It's almost like they're pleased that the Scottish economy isn't doing as well.

Quite the opposite. It is worrying despite someone above saying it's no big deal either way.

 

What people, including myself, do take glee in is highlighting the utter tosh that the SNP put before us.

 

'Oil is just a bonus' - aye, good one.

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http://may2015.com/breaking-news/the-snp-may-win-more-than-50-scottish-seats-but-only-have-35-parliamentary-candidates/

 

Interesting to note. Why so long in getting candidates? Risky to leave the selection process so late. Could end up with a Bill Walker or a Eric Joyce.

 

They only have two candidates still to select, and one of those is Orkney and Shetland, which is not exactly a top target. That doesn't seem a problem with over three months to go. Also, I think the risks are pretty minimal, given that it's going to be hard to get selected if you didn't do well in the referendum. As well, spotting Bill Walker types in advance is often hard - most people aren't going to stand up and say that they might not be an ideal candidate as they have a lengthy record of domestic violence.

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Guest Trapper John

There is something kind of unsettling about the level of glee that so many unionists seem to have about the lower oil price. It's almost like they're pleased that the Scottish economy isn't doing as well.

Balls.

 

Why shouldn't I be happy with cheaper oil prices and the knock on effect in the economy?

 

It's your Nat party of delusionists and snake-OIL salesmen who have to come up with the missing billions that would be required to keep your Utopia going through such a 'crisis'.

 

Why should 1.6m dictate to the other 60 million in the United Kingdom anyway?

Edited by Trapper John
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The Mighty Thor

you boys do realise that the referendum is past right? I'm sure the referendum superthread still lurks somewhere on the forum.

 

We're rushing headlong into another General Election and a new parliament which is still going to have to administer the greater majority of the austerity required to get the UK back off its arse. It's not about yes and no this time round it's all about who will best represent the interests of the Scottish electorate at Westminster (since we're just all one big happy family). 

 

so to summarise so far it's 

 

vote Tory get Tory

vote Liberal get Tory

vote SNP get Tory

vote Labour get er.......Ed Milliband?

 

Tough choices.

 

I think i'll probably vote for a party that will represent Scottish interests best at Westminster so that rules out the Conservatives,the Liberals and the branch office. :thumb:

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you boys do realise that the referendum is past right? I'm sure the referendum superthread still lurks somewhere on the forum.

 

We're rushing headlong into another General Election and a new parliament which is still going to have to administer the greater majority of the austerity required to get the UK back off its arse. It's not about yes and no this time round it's all about who will best represent the interests of the Scottish electorate at Westminster (since we're just all one big happy family). 

 

 

 

Is austerity the answer though?

 

I'm not so sure...

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Rand Paul's Ray Bans

So a Unite/Survation poll has Labour ahead in Sheffield Hallam over Clegg: 33% to 23%. Lord Ashcroft has the Lib Dems ahead by three points. 

 

Labour are anywhere between 1.5/1 and 3/1 I think in the betting markets. After the Unite/Survation poll we might see them put more resources into the constituency. Looks like a decent value bet. 

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Balls.

 

Why shouldn't I be happy with cheaper oil prices and the knock on effect in the economy?

 

It's your Nat party of delusionists and snake-OIL salesmen who have to come up with the missing billions that would be required to keep your Utopia going through such a 'crisis'.

 

Why should 1.6m dictate to the other 60 million in the United Kingdom anyway?

 

Good to note that you are actually cheering bad news for the Scottish economy.

 

In any case, it's pretty simple really. A thing that was not very predictable happened - the UK Government forecast was around $100/barrel, which is not that different from the Scottish Government prediction, and the vast majority of independent experts predicted broadly similar numbers. It's not a long term thing because the global demand for oil is increasing over time, especially as China and India continue to industrialise, therefore prices will recover, so you borrow the extra money to plug a short-term deficit. You don't want to have to do it, but it's what governments do when their revenues aren't what they would expect. You know, like the UK Government does. It borrowed ?107,700,000,000 in the last year.

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So a Unite/Survation poll has Labour ahead in Sheffield Hallam over Clegg: 33% to 23%. Lord Ashcroft has the Lib Dems ahead by three points. 

 

Labour are anywhere between 1.5/1 and 3/1 I think in the betting markets. After the Unite/Survation poll we might see them put more resources into the constituency. Looks like a decent value bet. 

 

I think 3/1 on Labour is excellent value if you can get it.

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The Mighty Thor

Is austerity the answer though?

 

I'm not so sure...

 

It may or may not be the answer, but we are sure as hell getting it, like it or not.

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So a Unite/Survation poll has Labour ahead in Sheffield Hallam over Clegg: 33% to 23%. Lord Ashcroft has the Lib Dems ahead by three points. 

 

Labour are anywhere between 1.5/1 and 3/1 I think in the betting markets. After the Unite/Survation poll we might see them put more resources into the constituency. Looks like a decent value bet. 

 

I'm sure you are expecting me to bite but perhaps you should read the details of the poll.

 

poll was paid by a trade union and packed with questions about trade unions.  30 point swing. give me strength.  

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Rand Paul's Ray Bans

I'm sure you are expecting me to bite but perhaps you should read the details of the poll.

 

poll was paid by a trade union and packed with questions about trade unions.  30 point swing. give me strength.  

 

I was being genuine - I didn't even know you're a Lib Dem.

 

Yes: that's why I also cited an Ashcroft poll that shows the race to be, at least, close; and therefore likely to be a value bet. 

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I was being genuine - I didn't even know you're a Lib Dem.

 

Yes: that's why I also cited an Ashcroft poll that shows the race to be, at least, close; and therefore likely to be a value bet.

I think we will see something very similar to the referendum. One side way out front before the campaign begins. Once people think about the issues and think about the candidates the snp surge will fade. First past the post will see them win a maybe a dozen. Don't blame us for that we gave you a vote to change the system. ... Edited by IMac
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It's no wonder the SNP haven't selected all their candidates yet. It'll take a while to pick ones whose internet footprint isn't too embarrassing.

 

http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/video-watch-snp-candidate-mhairi-5113388

 

Here's the SNP candidate that may unseat Alexander. Telling a crowd about how it took everything she had 'not to put the nut on' labour members at the referendum count.

 

FFS guys. How can anyone vote for this?

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It's no wonder the SNP haven't selected all their candidates yet. It'll take a while to pick ones whose internet footprint isn't too embarrassing.

 

http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/video-watch-snp-candidate-mhairi-5113388

 

Here's the SNP candidate that may unseat Alexander. Telling a crowd about how it took everything she had 'not to put the nut on' labour members at the referendum count.

 

FFS guys. How can anyone vote for this?

Do you really want to start this debate? Given the behaviour of numerous Conservative MPs over the last 50+ years.

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Do you really want to start this debate? Given the behaviour of numerous Conservative MPs over the last 50+ years.

Nah crack on. Put your cross next to this person's name. She'll do a great job and won't be at all embarrassing for Scotland.
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Nah crack on. Put your cross next to this person's name. She'll do a great job and won't be at all embarrassing for Scotland.

So only the SNP have arseholes in your world. You are embarrassingly narrow minded at times.

 

Out of interest would you vote for the Tory candidate regardless of who it was?

Edited by RosscoC
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So only the SNP have arseholes in your world. You are embarrassingly narrow minded at times.

 

Out of interest would you vote for the Tory candidate regardless of who it was?

Whataboutery. What we have here is an SNP candidate talking about wanting to put the nut on her political opponents.

 

Of course all parties have arseholes. If you want to highlight another party candidate for the next general ejection doing something like this id be pleased to listen.

 

No is the answer to your last question.

 

So, would you vote for this candidate if you were in that constituency?

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Whataboutery. What we have here is an SNP candidate talking about wanting to put the nut on her political opponents.

 

Of course all parties have arseholes. If you want to highlight another party candidate for the next general ejection doing something like this id be pleased to listen.

 

No is the answer to your last question.

 

So, would you vote for this candidate if you were in that constituency?

Probably not but it doesn't seem like she'll get the chance to stand anyway.

 

I think some loud mouth idiot is a lot less dangerous than someone like Liam Fox for example - his track record on abuses of his position is pretty unbelievable.

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Tend to agree with IMac. Once the debate begins and peoples' minds focus on policy and the media focuses on a two horse race for number 10 polls will narrow. The SNP will need to answer two hard questions;

 

1. What will they do if the Tories win? A genuine question to be answered after the vow not to work with them or prop them up. That'd diminish their influence and that of Scotland. Frankly it's a nonsense for them to rule out anything here if the aim is more powers and getting good deals for Scotland as a nationalist party. The creed is nationalism, not social democracy or Socialism or anti-Toryism or green politics, but nationalism. As a result they'll surely happily work with whoever to make gains for Scotland. Parnell did at the turn of the last century for Ireland, as it was for Ireland's sake not a creed of politics. They'll need to answer that.

 

2. What is best for Scotland? What is the Scottish interest? What does this mean in policy terms? Is a 3% corporation tax cut a scottish interest? Or is it an interest for certain people? What's the policy on rents and house prices? On energy reform? On private vs public in he economy? On the living wage? On pensions? The problem develops that nationalism as a base creed of a party is you can be all things to all people. You don't need to offer policy, you offer a narrative based on national interest dressed up in a certain tone. Policy flies out the window and you can blow with the wind. That could be an Achilles heel if attacked properly.

 

Another issue could be the TV debates. Sturgeon will likely do them. Arguably she should've lead them in the referednum. But depending on the structure, if it's 7, 3, 2 on leaders in a row, then one bad performance may hobble the lead enough to save some face. And never underplay incumbancy of the MP. Kennedy for example could well hold in, as could say a Gilmore or Davidson. Or an Alexander. Chisolm did such a miracle in the collapse of Edinburgh Labour's constituency MSPs.

 

It's not all over yet.

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AlphonseCapone

Interesting how it's a UK general election but there are still a few posters getting their knickers in a twist about the SNP.

 

Is anyone on here a member of a party? If so, why?

 

I personally don't like the idea of joining one party and toeing the line on most major issues.

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Interesting how it's a UK general election but there are still a few posters getting their knickers in a twist about the SNP.

 

Is anyone on here a member of a party? If so, why?

 

I personally don't like the idea of joining one party and toeing the line on most major issues.

It's looking like they're going to horse the Scottish vote. Talking about them couldn't be more relevant as it's them that'll likely be forcing Scottish issues. It is them that'll be representing Scottish interests, why should our knickers remain untwisted?

 

I've never joined a party. I don't think I would either. But you don't have to follow the party line on everything unless you're joining the SNP. I think, though, if you were keen enough to join a party you'd like agree with most of their main policies.

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AlphonseCapone

It's looking like they're going to horse the Scottish vote. Talking about them couldn't be more relevant as it's them that'll likely be forcing Scottish issues. It is them that'll be representing Scottish interests, why should our knickers remain untwisted?

 

I've never joined a party. I don't think I would either. But you don't have to follow the party line on everything unless you're joining the SNP. I think, though, if you were keen enough to join a party you'd like agree with most of their main policies.

By all means discuss them but it's the desperation that comes oozing out from some folk when discussing them I find amusing.

 

If they do horse Scotland, shouldn't the discussion be about why some many Scottish people seem to view all the other parties with nothing but contempt?

 

I realise you despise them but for them to be in Government for so long and having just lost a vote on their whole reason for existence yet are on course for a record number of seats says either a lot about them or the rest.

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Interesting how it's a UK general election but there are still a few posters getting their knickers in a twist about the SNP.

 

Is anyone on here a member of a party? If so, why?

 

I personally don't like the idea of joining one party and toeing the line on most major issues.

Across the UK it's a hard election. What's worrying is that like 1983 the left is split again. Sadly in our electoral system that's bad for the left overall and can only cede power to the Tories. With that will be the EU vote and another referendum. Imo, the SNP will call another vote either way in 2016. But this in a British historical context is looking more like 1918 and the final election of Irish MPs than 1910 and the final push for home rule.

 

Mad thing is, the SNP's vision of home rule would be bad for Scotland and effectively sideline Scottish MPs totally. We voted for the union. We're still in it. By virtue of that the institutions and systems of the Union should rightly continue that means devolution or home rule or federalism is shaped within union and at the agreement of those in the club.

 

The arguments we are hearing now reject that and set us up for a big big fall.

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What I meant was that those key marginals are what deliver power at Westminster. PR would screw all of that up. This is why Labour & Tory are so similar in policy, so as to win these marginals. Wales, Scotland (until recently I suppose!), the South East, South West, North East all tend to return a specific party so, in that sense, they are seen as a given. PR would of course shatter that, thus making the MP's returned more representative of the electorates wishes.

Yup. But the divide between the two parties is the biggest policy wide in decades. Watch last nights BBCQT and see Johnathan Freedland set that out.

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By all means discuss them but it's the desperation that comes oozing out from some folk when discussing them I find amusing.

 

If they do horse Scotland, shouldn't the discussion be about why some many Scottish people seem to view all the other parties with nothing but contempt?

 

I realise you despise them but for them to be in Government for so long and having just lost a vote on their whole reason for existence yet are on course for a record number of seats says either a lot about them or the rest.

I agree with this somewhat. I honestly think the ability to blame London/Westminster etc has allowed the actual failures across the board of SNP governments to be swept under the rug to many voters. A worrying situation.

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By all means discuss them but it's the desperation that comes oozing out from some folk when discussing them I find amusing.

 

If they do horse Scotland, shouldn't the discussion be about why some many Scottish people seem to view all the other parties with nothing but contempt?

 

I realise you despise them but for them to be in Government for so long and having just lost a vote on their whole reason for existence yet are on course for a record number of seats says either a lot about them or the rest.

It says that the majority of people that vote for them will continue to vote for them regardless of their record - why? Independence. Ask the majority of them what the SNP's position is on the points JX2 raised above. You won't get much back.

 

It's the non-hard liners that will play a major part in this election.

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Psychedelicropcircle

 

7 years in power, 7 years keeping budget, whilst in seven years the establishment parties have increased the U.K. total debt by two thirds. Creating austerity for the people who didn't cause it but are paying for millionaires to continue. Selling off assets at half bat with no benefit to the public. Not ruling out TTIP. You'll find the difference is no difference at all. We're in that much debt they have no direction to turn. Then there is the small matter of trust.

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The Mighty Thor

I agree with this somewhat. I honestly think the ability to blame London/Westminster etc has allowed the actual failures across the board of SNP governments to be swept under the rug to many voters. A worrying situation.

 

Are the failures of the SNP government any different from those of preceding governments at a Scottish or Westminster level?

 

A worrying situation indeed if the current SNP Government at Holyrood is the first to fail to deliver on anything. 

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Across the UK it's a hard election. What's worrying is that like 1983 the left is split again. Sadly in our electoral system that's bad for the left overall and can only cede power to the Tories. With that will be the EU vote and another referendum. Imo, the SNP will call another vote either way in 2016. But this in a British historical context is looking more like 1918 and the final election of Irish MPs than 1910 and the final push for home rule.

 

Mad thing is, the SNP's vision of home rule would be bad for Scotland and effectively sideline Scottish MPs totally. We voted for the union. We're still in it. By virtue of that the institutions and systems of the Union should rightly continue that means devolution or home rule or federalism is shaped within union and at the agreement of those in the club.

 

The arguments we are hearing now reject that and set us up for a big big fall.

 

Except in Scotland, the split is on the right, not the left. But you still have this thing that the SNP will prop up the Tories, and that if Labour loses seats to the SNP that lets the Tories in. It's nonsense.

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Tend to agree with IMac. Once the debate begins and peoples' minds focus on policy and the media focuses on a two horse race for number 10 polls will narrow. The SNP will need to answer two hard questions;

 

1. What will they do if the Tories win? A genuine question to be answered after the vow not to work with them or prop them up. That'd diminish their influence and that of Scotland. Frankly it's a nonsense for them to rule out anything here if the aim is more powers and getting good deals for Scotland as a nationalist party. The creed is nationalism, not social democracy or Socialism or anti-Toryism or green politics, but nationalism. As a result they'll surely happily work with whoever to make gains for Scotland. Parnell did at the turn of the last century for Ireland, as it was for Ireland's sake not a creed of politics. They'll need to answer that.

 

2. What is best for Scotland? What is the Scottish interest? What does this mean in policy terms? Is a 3% corporation tax cut a scottish interest? Or is it an interest for certain people? What's the policy on rents and house prices? On energy reform? On private vs public in he economy? On the living wage? On pensions? The problem develops that nationalism as a base creed of a party is you can be all things to all people. You don't need to offer policy, you offer a narrative based on national interest dressed up in a certain tone. Policy flies out the window and you can blow with the wind. That could be an Achilles heel if attacked properly.

 

Another issue could be the TV debates. Sturgeon will likely do them. Arguably she should've lead them in the referednum. But depending on the structure, if it's 7, 3, 2 on leaders in a row, then one bad performance may hobble the lead enough to save some face. And never underplay incumbancy of the MP. Kennedy for example could well hold in, as could say a Gilmore or Davidson. Or an Alexander. Chisolm did such a miracle in the collapse of Edinburgh Labour's constituency MSPs.

 

It's not all over yet.

 

Some straw clutching going on here. It's a little rich for you to decide you know what the purpose of the SNP is, what they stand for and what they should do in a hung Parliament. I think the SNP's own views on these matters are slightly more relevant, and have been set out repeatedly, but you ignore that and suggest that there's a hidden agenda to prop up the Tories. Maybe the real question is whether the Labour Party will, in all circumstances, vote down a Tory Government.

 

Also, it's a bit rich these days for a Labour supporter to start complaining that other parties policies can change and are just based on the political wind.

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Geoff Kilpatrick

Across the UK it's a hard election. What's worrying is that like 1983 the left is split again. Sadly in our electoral system that's bad for the left overall and can only cede power to the Tories. With that will be the EU vote and another referendum. Imo, the SNP will call another vote either way in 2016. But this in a British historical context is looking more like 1918 and the final election of Irish MPs than 1910 and the final push for home rule.

 

Mad thing is, the SNP's vision of home rule would be bad for Scotland and effectively sideline Scottish MPs totally. We voted for the union. We're still in it. By virtue of that the institutions and systems of the Union should rightly continue that means devolution or home rule or federalism is shaped within union and at the agreement of those in the club.

 

The arguments we are hearing now reject that and set us up for a big big fall.

Please define what you mean by the "left" and what parties are in it?
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Psychedelicropcircle

7 years in power, 7 years keeping budget, whilst in seven years the establishment parties have increased the U.K. total debt by two thirds. Creating austerity for the people who didn't cause it but are paying for millionaires to continue. Selling off assets at half bat with no benefit to the public. Not ruling out TTIP. You'll find the difference is no difference at all. We're in that much debt they have no direction to turn. Then there is the small matter of trust.

 

Add to that 11% pay rises with 25% pension increase.....all whilst telling frontline workers here's 1% pay rise.

 

We're in this together.

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That's what Westminster MPs have paid themselves.....The Scottish Parliament has only paid itself 1%.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/dec/09/scottish-parliament-rejects-westminster-pay-rises

 

they havent paid themselves. The pay rise was awarded following an independent pay review. You either think MPs should set their own salaries or not. Dammed either way it would seem.
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they havent paid themselves. The pay rise was awarded following an independent pay review. You either think MPs should set their own salaries or not. Dammed either way it would seem.

No....the "independent" pay review made a recommendation, which the MPs then voted for. 

They could have turned it down or award themselves a lower amount but claimed to have been "forced" into taking an 11% pay rise.

 

:seething:

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Are the failures of the SNP government any different from those of preceding governments at a Scottish or Westminster level?

 

A worrying situation indeed if the current SNP Government at Holyrood is the first to fail to deliver on anything.

Botched police reform, consecutive failures on reforming council tax, failure to abolish student debt which won them the 2007 election, corroboration reform totally alienating the legal profession and judiciary, no progress on land reform and a total erosion of local government are big failings.

 

Failure to deliver is nothing new, but there's been bad with the good.

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No....the "independent" pay review made a recommendation, which the MPs then voted for.

They could have turned it down or award themselves a lower amount but claimed to have been "forced" into taking an 11% pay rise.

 

:seething:

With major scaling back of expenses the salary also goes to the wages of their office staff in home constituencies and the cost of running an office. In effect their increase supports others.

 

MSPs and MPs cant win.

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I think he means left as in how many MPs Labour will have left, rather than in the left...

Not at all. Mean Labours usual vote is going all ways, Green SNP Plaid etc. Under FPTP that isn't always the best to guaranteeing a centre left government.

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The Mighty Thor

 

 

Botched police reform, consecutive failures on reforming council tax, failure to abolish student debt which won them the 2007 election, corroboration reform totally alienating the legal profession and judiciary, no progress on land reform and a total erosion of local government are big failings.

 

Failure to deliver is nothing new, but there's been bad with the good.

As you said, failure to deliver is nothing new. The next governments at holyrood & Westminster will fail to deliver about 30% of their manifesto.

In other news bears shit in the woods.

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