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The 2015 General Election Megathread


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^^^ Word salad.

Not really. To this English friend of mine it would be a vote of intent to leave the UK. Much like a UKIP majority in the EU Parliament seats has governments in the EU preparing for a UK exit from the EU.

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Still think once the campaign begins the SNP gloss will fade when people actually meet their candidates.

Something Ashcroft's polling data suggests. He makes the point that in some seats the vote may narrow and the SNP lead may diminish. We can only wait and see.

 

2 factors should be considered with an SNP majority in Scotland:

 

1. With UK wide polls this narrow it makes it easier to see a Tory government being returned.

 

2. The above happening is bad for Scotland because the SNP have ruled out working with them. So the Tories work around them in order to pass what they want.

 

Fun times ahead.

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Psychedelicropcircle

Not really. To this English friend of mine it would be a vote of intent to leave the UK. Much like a UKIP majority in the EU Parliament seats has governments in the EU preparing for a UK exit from the EU.

 

 

Only leaving through referendum, no other way, it's simple the scottish people want federalism. It works elsewhere why not here. These polls indicate scottish people lack trust in scottish labour. All the things JM put his name to whilst serving Wm are not the things he's saying he is now. IMO it's about MP numbers in WM and less about powers for scotland, **** them

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dobmisterdobster

The tag Red Tories has long been applied by the far left. But as Neil Findlay remarked in the leadership election there's not a fag paper between 90% of Labour and SNP policies. So I guess they are Yellow Tories?

Instead of comparing policies which are fairly meaningless. Compare voting patterns in the Commons.

 

In the past few weeks SLab MPs have been pro-austerity, pro-trident and neutral on fracking.

 

 

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Only leaving through referendum, no other way, it's simple the scottish people want federalism. It works elsewhere why not here. These polls indicate scottish people lack trust in scottish labour. All the things JM put his name to whilst serving Wm are not the things he's saying he is now. IMO it's about MP numbers in WM and less about powers for scotland, **** them

 

 

If the scottish people really want federalism, why then do they not vote lib dem. The only party that actually has argued for this?

 

http://issuu.com/scotlibdems/docs/federalism_-_the_best_future_for_sc_494e8456310ada/13?e=0

Edited by IMac
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Something Ashcroft's polling data suggests. He makes the point that in some seats the vote may narrow and the SNP lead may diminish. We can only wait and see.

 

2 factors should be considered with an SNP majority in Scotland:

 

1. With UK wide polls this narrow it makes it easier to see a Tory government being returned.

 

2. The above happening is bad for Scotland because the SNP have ruled out working with them. So the Tories work around them in order to pass what they want.

 

Fun times ahead.

Let's be clear here, a MINORITY Tory government.  A different beast entirely.  Which makes your second point harder to achieve.

 

If the scottish people really want federalism, why then do they not vote lib dem. The only party that actually has argued for this?

 

http://issuu.com/scotlibdems/docs/federalism_-_the_best_future_for_sc_494e8456310ada/13?e=0

 

Because it's the Lib Dems!  ;-)

 

Interestingly, I can't fathom why reform of the Westminster political system hasn't been mooted by any political party yet.  Devolution is a two way street, imo, so its not just about powers to Scotland, but also how Westminster operates too.  I suspect a lot of people voted YES, not out of nationalistic fervour, but as they are fed up with the Westminster system.

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dobmisterdobster

If the scottish people really want federalism, why then do they not vote lib dem. The only party that actually has argued for this?

 

http://issuu.com/scotlibdems/docs/federalism_-_the_best_future_for_sc_494e8456310ada/13?e=0

About that...

 

http://news.stv.tv/scotland-decides/analysis/306442-stephen-daisley-on-willie-rennie-liberal-democrats-home-rule-federalism/

 

 

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Geoff Kilpatrick

No electoral reform Boris? Probably because AV was rejected and the junior coalition partner has been vilified as the bad guys.

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No electoral reform Boris? Probably because AV was rejected and the junior coalition partner has been vilified as the bad guys.

 

Or that Labour & the Conservatives don't really want it as the current system benefits them both.

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The really alarming thing for SLab is that the SNP have taken this position without doing an awful lot of much of anything.

 

"Getting the best deal for the people of Scotland" is clearly working better as a mission statement than "the only way to keep the Tories out".

 

IMac - What are your thoughts on "morality for the Tories, economic restraint for Labour". It feels like Lib Dems are having to fight with one arm tied behind their back dealing with this stuff from head office.

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An English friend of mine equated the SNP winning a Scottish majority to the rest of the UK to UKIP winning a UK election to the EU. Can see the logic there neatly from an English view.

It's exactly the same thing.
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Geoff Kilpatrick

Or that Labour & the Conservatives don't really want it as the current system benefits them both.

There's a saying about turkeys and Christmas springing to mind.
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Federalism has to happen across the whole UK. Unilateral federalism will result in the break up of the UK. Exactly what the SNP/separatists want.

 

I think you will find that federalism is very strong at the fore of the lib dems and most members believe it is the way forward but in needs to be done properly. Not the SNP or tory or even Labour plans that are currently being put forward. These plans are to win an election not improve the system.

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Federalism has to happen across the whole UK. Unilateral federalism will result in the break up of the UK. Exactly what the SNP/separatists want.

 

I think you will find that federalism is very strong at the fore of the lib dems and most members believe it is the way forward but in needs to be done properly. Not the SNP or tory or even Labour plans that are currently being put forward. These plans are to win an election not improve the system.

I agree.

 

A more federal approach must happen for the 4 home nations and should happen soon. If it doesn't the separatists in the UK will get what it is that they seek.

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The really alarming thing for SLab is that the SNP have taken this position without doing an awful lot of much of anything.

 

"Getting the best deal for the people of Scotland" is clearly working better as a mission statement than "the only way to keep the Tories out".

 

IMac - What are your thoughts on "morality for the Tories, economic restraint for Labour". It feels like Lib Dems are having to fight with one arm tied behind their back dealing with this stuff from head office.

 

I think that the Lib Dems do a certain extent do have their hands tied but more from the electorate. They are the middle ground if you want to take a left right approach but for me there is little difference between the 3 parties (SNP, Labour, Tory) isn't that great however if you get your compass out the authoritarian nature of the those parties is what makes the Lib Dems different. 

 

The  "morality for the Tories, economic restraint for Labour" pitch i think is genuine. We look likely to be in a prolonged period of minority governments and need someone to temper the hand of these two. They both want to play to their base and as a result then to forget the big picture. If we want social programs we need to pay for them, if we want the country to prosper we need to bring everyone with us and that is the role of the Lib Dems in my view.

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Federalism has to happen across the whole UK. Unilateral federalism will result in the break up of the UK. Exactly what the SNP/separatists want.

 

I think you will find that federalism is very strong at the fore of the lib dems and most members believe it is the way forward but in needs to be done properly. Not the SNP or tory or even Labour plans that are currently being put forward. These plans are to win an election not improve the system.

 

 

I agree.

 

A more federal approach must happen for the 4 home nations and should happen soon. If it doesn't the separatists in the UK will get what it is that they seek.

 

I have always said this!  But it is the failure of Labour and the Conservatives to understand this.  All they care about are the key marginals in middle england that secure them victory in an outdated, less than democratic, electoral system.

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Psychedelicropcircle

If the scottish people really want federalism, why then do they not vote lib dem. The only party that actually has argued for this?

 

http://issuu.com/scotlibdems/docs/federalism_-_the_best_future_for_sc_494e8456310ada/13?e=0

 

Oh aye they showed how much they want federalism whilst voting in the fracking debate last week. If the LD were a fitba team they'd be hibs!

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Oh aye they showed how much they want federalism whilst voting in the fracking debate last week. If the LD were a fitba team they'd be hibs?

 

Referring to the scottish lib dems?

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dobmisterdobster

Federalism has to happen across the whole UK. Unilateral federalism will result in the break up of the UK. Exactly what the SNP/separatists want.

 

I think you will find that federalism is very strong at the fore of the lib dems and most members believe it is the way forward but in needs to be done properly. Not the SNP or tory or even Labour plans that are currently being put forward. These plans are to win an election not improve the system.

Real federalism would be a US style system.

Have England, Scotland, Wales and NI as autonomous states and London as a District of Columbia style city.

Replace the Commons with an English Parliament and the Lords with a British Senate.

 

That's real Federalism and a million miles from the Unitary system we have now.

Simply vowing to devolve powers over Road Signs to Holyrood and calling it Home Rule or Federalism isn't going to work.

 

 

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Geoff Kilpatrick

Real federalism would be a US style system.

Have England, Scotland, Wales and NI as autonomous states and London as a District of Columbia style city.

Replace the Commons with an English Parliament and the Lords with a British Senate.

 

That's real Federalism and a million miles from the Unitary system we have now.

Simply vowing to devolve powers over Road Signs to Holyrood and calling it Home Rule or Federalism isn't going to work.

 

 

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Except that isn't how the US works.

 

There's a federal system here in Oz, although there are slight differences between the six states and the two territories. Interestingly, all taxes are paid to the Commonwealth, with the exception of land, property and gambling taxes which go to the individual States, plus car registration too. GST (VAT) is used to balance revenues between states (not without controversy). The states are autonomous in health, education, transport etc but can seek federal funding for infrastructure projects, such as hospital and road building.

 

All of this is very different to the "vow" rollout which to me seems to have increased the levels of asymmetric devolution in the UK.

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dobmisterdobster

Except that isn't how the US works.

 

There's a federal system here in Oz, although there are slight differences between the six states and the two territories. Interestingly, all taxes are paid to the Commonwealth, with the exception of land, property and gambling taxes which go to the individual States, plus car registration too. GST (VAT) is used to balance revenues between states (not without controversy). The states are autonomous in health, education, transport etc but can seek federal funding for infrastructure projects, such as hospital and road building.

 

All of this is very different to the "vow" rollout which to me seems to have increased the levels of asymmetric devolution in the UK.

Can you explain how it's not like the US? I appreciate my explanation is pretty basic but I feel it's accurate.

The Australian system you described is quite interesting.

 

No major Westminster party is seriously proposing a move to a federal system from the unitary status quo.

Federalism when used by a party like the Lib Dems is just a buzzword and not to be taken in the literal sense.

 

 

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Edited by dobmisterdobster
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Psychedelicropcircle

Referring to the scottish lib dems?

The lib dems the same ones who want to frack under yer hoose ......tomorrow.

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The lib dems the same ones who want to frack under yer hoose ......tomorrow.

 

Meh. I'm willing to talk about it. I don't really want to live in a country where we just do what the loudest person(s) say. Can we not have a grown up debate on issues anymore?

 

Also they have taken coal from under my house.

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When did franking become anti-Scottish or anti-working class?

 

A discussion should be had about it - instead though we've seen the SNP make up lies about it and use it to fuel their grievance politics.

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When did franking become anti-Scottish or anti-working class?

 

A discussion should be had about it - instead though we've seen the SNP make up lies about it and use it to fuel their grievance politics.

 

Is that you back on about stamp duty again?

 

:tumbleweed:

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:lol:

 

Bloody autocorrect!

 

*fracking*

 

Hahaha!

 

Back on topic, what are the SNP lies?  It's an emotive subject and, as you say, does need to be discussed (as does TTIP but DC seems to want to railroad that on through) as there is a lot of stuff out there.

 

I'm happy though that the Scottish Govt has issued a moratorium on planning at the moment, thereby giving the opportunity to research and reassure any misgivings.

 

Personally, I'm minded to give fracking a wide berth, but that's based on what (little) I've read and a natural scepticism to MNCs.

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Psychedelicropcircle

Meh. I'm willing to talk about it. I don't really want to live in a country where we just do what the loudest person(s) say. Can we not have a grown up debate on issues anymore?

 

Also they have taken coal from under my house.

 

I'm not against it but an 18 month look at it wouldn't do any harm it'll still be there.

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I have always said this! But it is the failure of Labour and the Conservatives to understand this. All they care about are the key marginals in middle england that secure them victory in an outdated, less than democratic, electoral system.

Disagree. Both are not wanting to cede power from Westminster. It's a power grab nothing to do with what the home counties think.

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Hahaha!

 

Back on topic, what are the SNP lies? It's an emotive subject and, as you say, does need to be discussed (as does TTIP but DC seems to want to railroad that on through) as there is a lot of stuff out there.

 

I'm happy though that the Scottish Govt has issued a moratorium on planning at the moment, thereby giving the opportunity to research and reassure any misgivings.

 

Personally, I'm minded to give fracking a wide berth, but that's based on what (little) I've read and a natural scepticism to MNCs.

The Scottish Government expert panel on Fracking declared it safe and that as long as safeguards via planning, ie x miles away from drinking water reservoirs it'd be fine. The current moratorium is a sham. They've got a green light from a mixed panel of experts. They aren't stopping the Forth coal gasification project either. Its good politics through the election cycle.

 

It'll happen in Scotland unless the Greens win. Ineos at Grangemouth want it or they're off. Atm they spend huge amounts on importing shale gas from the USA whens there's a supply under ground.

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The really alarming thing for SLab is that the SNP have taken this position without doing an awful lot of much of anything.

 

"Getting the best deal for the people of Scotland" is clearly working better as a mission statement than "the only way to keep the Tories out".

 

IMac - What are your thoughts on "morality for the Tories, economic restraint for Labour". It feels like Lib Dems are having to fight with one arm tied behind their back dealing with this stuff from head office.

On Scottish Labour I've always said that the idea of running vote us to stop x, y and z getting power was pish. At all times they should just talk policy, someone asks you about polls, respond I don't talk about what ifs but I am here to say we'll do this on the living wage and this on rents and this on house building. Ignore who you're fighting and talk about your ideas.

 

It'd show a vacuum in SNP policy plans.

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Hahaha!

 

Back on topic, what are the SNP lies? It's an emotive subject and, as you say, does need to be discussed (as does TTIP but DC seems to want to railroad that on through) as there is a lot of stuff out there.

 

I'm happy though that the Scottish Govt has issued a moratorium on planning at the moment, thereby giving the opportunity to research and reassure any misgivings.

 

Personally, I'm minded to give fracking a wide berth, but that's based on what (little) I've read and a natural scepticism to MNCs.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/energy/fracking/11382948/SNP-fabricated-reasons-for-fracking-ban-says-expert.html

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On Scottish Labour I've always said that the idea of running vote us to stop x, y and z getting power was pish. At all times they should just talk policy, someone asks you about polls, respond I don't talk about what ifs but I am here to say we'll do this on the living wage and this on rents and this on house building. Ignore who you're fighting and talk about your ideas.

 

It'd show a vacuum in SNP policy plans.

Scottish Labour seem to be suffering from the same problem as Ed's lot in that they are scared stiff to actually talk about their policies. Don't know if it was the Myleene Klass affair or just general cowardice due to the British press but right now they are having the worst of both worlds in terms of alienating their base whilst soaking up mockery from their enemies.

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Scottish Labour seem to be suffering from the same problem as Ed's lot in that they are scared stiff to actually talk about their policies. Don't know if it was the Myleene Klass affair or just general cowardice due to the British press but right now they are having the worst of both worlds in terms of alienating their base whilst soaking up mockery from their enemies.

Totally agree and the sad thing is they have a great story to tell. The campaign needs to be bolder and I think people like Ed Balls who are naturally "centrist" and cautious are holding them back.

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Jambos - help me to understand what is going on here?

 

Yet another poll showing the SNP winning lots of seats from Labour today.  Why are so many people prepared to back a party that just a few months ago asked us to back their plan for an independent Scotland based on oil at $110 a barrel?  Thanks to Labour and Gordon Brown stepping in at the last minute 55% said no.  If the country had backed Alex Salmond's plan, his first meaningful act as PM of an Independent Scotland would have been to go looking for a massive financial bail out.

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Jambos - help me to understand what is going on here?

 

Yet another poll showing the SNP winning lots of seats from Labour today.  Why are so many people prepared to back a party that just a few months ago asked us to back their plan for an independent Scotland based on oil at $110 a barrel?  Thanks to Labour and Gordon Brown stepping in at the last minute 55% said no.  If the country had backed Alex Salmond's plan, his first meaningful act as PM of an Independent Scotland would have been to go looking for a massive financial bail out.

 

The snp wouldn't push for another referendum at a holyrood election, so they certainly won't push for one off the back off a westminister election, so any concerns on that score are unlikely to enter the heads of the majority of the electorate. Perhaps you could consider instead why the labour vote appears to die a death. Generations of labour voters look likely to cease. I'd say that was easily as pertinent as any consideration of what Alex Salmond would've done had we voted yes.

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Jambos - help me to understand what is going on here?

 

Yet another poll showing the SNP winning lots of seats from Labour today.  Why are so many people prepared to back a party that just a few months ago asked us to back their plan for an independent Scotland based on oil at $110 a barrel?  Thanks to Labour and Gordon Brown stepping in at the last minute 55% said no.  If the country had backed Alex Salmond's plan, his first meaningful act as PM of an Independent Scotland would have been to go looking for a massive financial bail out.

 

a) Angry Yes voters who consider the referendum to have been stolen by the British state / the BBC / Jim Murphy's damned soul

 

B) Moderate Yes & No voters who take the view that the Scottish National Party will be able to force better results for Scotland than a party tied down by their rUK commitments and this is a thing that appeals to them.

 

c) Decent Yes voters who viewed independence as the best means for a whole variety of positive things who will now hold their nose and vote SNP as the quickest way to their preferred goal

 

d) Full blown psychopaths whose weakness at spelling is only rivaled by their dodgy photoshop skills

 

So it's all that lot versus a scared of their own shadow Labour party who are trying to pick up votes from the reminder of population which consists mostly of the centre-right, the right and the uninterested.

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I get it that Yes voters have a kind of evangelical blind belief that independence is the only way but Moderate Yes & No voters must have doubts.  Would independence or a scrapping of the Barnet formula really produce better results for Scotland?  All the SNP tactics are working towards forcing a situation where there will be another referendum.  

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I get it that Yes voters have a kind of evangelical blind belief that independence is the only way but Moderate Yes & No voters must have doubts.  Would independence or a scrapping of the Barnet formula really produce better results for Scotland?  All the SNP tactics are working towards forcing a situation where there will be another referendum.  

 

How would you describe your politics?

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Still think once the campaign begins the SNP gloss will fade when people actually meet their candidates.

 

That's the difference though, a lot more people will meet their SNP candidates than they will meet their Labour MPs. The lack of an incumbency factor in the Ashcroft polling for many of the MPs says a huge amount (some are even polling below their party). A good MP should stand a much better chance of holding their seat against a swing.

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I get it that Yes voters have a kind of evangelical blind belief that independence is the only way but Moderate Yes & No voters must have doubts.  Would independence or a scrapping of the Barnet formula really produce better results for Scotland?  All the SNP tactics are working towards forcing a situation where there will be another referendum.  

 

Of course moderates will have doubts. That's why they are moderates. Look at the alternatives though. Labour have been discussed, you've got Ruth Davidson who seems more interested in Twitter celebrity than actually doing any politicking, the Scottish Greens who eschew moderation, UKIP who showed their respect of Scotland by giving David Cockburn the gig and the Lib Dems who i'm sure is just Danny Alexander and IMac from JKB at this point.

 

The SNP are doing again what they did so well during the referendum campaign. Their supporters will say it's painting a compelling narrative and Maganator will say it's nationalist propaganda akin to the Nazis. Whoever is right the important thing is that it works.

 

I don't know if you have Newsnight on but if you do and saw that interview with Jim Murphy you'd probably have a much better understanding of why Scottish politics are a mess right now.

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http://may2015.com/breaking-news/the-snp-may-win-more-than-50-scottish-seats-but-only-have-35-parliamentary-candidates/

 

Interesting to note. Why so long in getting candidates? Risky to leave the selection process so late. Could end up with a Bill Walker or a Eric Joyce.

I think its been down to the change in the SNP rules allowing new party members to stand and also to vote. 

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