Scottish independence and devolution superthread

[lost in space]

Imagine if we in Scotland had this?

 

Every GP practice must now offer online booking - BBC News

 

Going to have in 2030 though so only 5 years to wait. We do have free prescriptions - if you can get a doctors appointment of course!!!

 

Devolution is fab.

[Gundermann]

3 hours ago, lost in space said:

Imagine if we in Scotland had this?

 

Every GP practice must now offer online booking - BBC News

 

Going to have in 2030 though so only 5 years to wait. We do have free prescriptions - if you can get a doctors appointment of course!!!

 

Devolution is fab.

 

I get a GP no problem. 

 

Scotland does well re GP numbers. Not bad, given the millstone that is the Union. 

 

https://www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk/news-item/is-the-number-of-gps-falling-across-the-uk

[Gundermann]

Pro-independence majority still likely in Scotland and support for independence still in the lead.

 

 

[Cruyff]

The ideal for me is Reform wins UK general election and SNP hold Scot Parliament & a majority in WM. 

 

Then Scotland will be wanting Indy ASAP. 

 

mon' the Nigel. 

 

[Dennis Denuto]

2 minutes ago, Cruyff said:

The ideal for me is Reform wins UK general election and SNP hold Scot Parliament & a majority in WM. 

 

Then Scotland will be wanting Indy ASAP. 

 

mon' the Nigel. 

 

Not for me, as much as I want independence I only want it when enough people in Scotland want it too, not because the UK has become a Fascist Dictatorship run by total clowns.

[AlimOzturk]

3 minutes ago, Dennis Denuto said:

Not for me, as much as I want independence I only want it when enough people in Scotland want it too, not because the UK has become a Fascist Dictatorship run by total clowns.

Us being in the UK won’t stop the it becoming a facsckst dictatorship so independence is essentially the only way out of that now. 

[Dennis Denuto]

4 minutes ago, AlimOzturk said:

Us being in the UK won’t stop the it becoming a facsckst dictatorship so independence is essentially the only way out of that now. 

Maybe, but it is still not my desired outcome

[lost in space]

55 minutes ago, Gundermann said:

 

I get a GP no problem. 

 

Scotland does well re GP numbers. Not bad, given the millstone that is the Union. 

 

https://www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk/news-item/is-the-number-of-gps-falling-across-the-uk

I am pleased that you get an appointment - it's a real post code lottery. I am fortunate that I rarely need one - otherwise it is a trauma trying to get through at 0800 - and actually see a GP, who will almost certainly be a locum.

 

I said in my previous post "free prescriptons" - but should have said "free at point of delivery". Not free - we pay large amounts of extra tax to pay for them - and the salaries of the Holyrood dross.

[lost in space]

1 hour ago, Gundermann said:

Pro-independence majority still likely in Scotland and support for independence still in the lead.

 

 

So the Yes vote is 50%. Well that's clearly a substantial majority then!!!

[Dennis Denuto]

10 minutes ago, lost in space said:

I am pleased that you get an appointment - it's a real post code lottery. I am fortunate that I rarely need one - otherwise it is a trauma trying to get through at 0800 - and actually see a GP, who will almost certainly be a locum.

 

I said in my previous post "free prescriptons" - but should have said "free at point of delivery". Not free - we pay large amounts of extra tax to pay for them - and the salaries of the Holyrood dross.

I mean there was a referendum to establish the Scottish parliament and a substantial majority voted in favour of it, you are not suggesting we should re-run a democratic referendum with a definitive result again are you?

[JamboGlen]

1 hour ago, Gundermann said:

Pro-independence majority still likely in Scotland and support for independence still in the lead.

 

 

All pretty irrelevant when there is no referendum happening.

[Jacques de Gauthier]

1 hour ago, Gundermann said:

Pro-independence majority still likely in Scotland and support for independence still in the lead.

 

 

Great stuff. Hopefully we can carry that forward into the referendum itself. Remind me of the date it's happening, again?

[AlimOzturk]

1 minute ago, Jacques de Gauthier said:

Great stuff. Hopefully we can carry that forward into the referendum itself. Remind me of the date it's happening, again?

Keep voting in SNP governments, get a majority, how can they keep denying us a referendum?

[Jacques de Gauthier]

1 minute ago, AlimOzturk said:

Keep voting in SNP governments, get a majority, how can they keep denying us a referendum?

The SNP hierarchy would shit themselves if they ever got near another referendum. Something significant will have to happen in the indy movement to change things, IMO.

[redjambo]

6 minutes ago, JamboGlen said:

All pretty irrelevant when there is no referendum happening.

 

It's not irrelevant in the slightest.

 

However, with those stats, even if we were offered a referendum, I wouldn't take one. Support for independence needs to have a solid and continued support higher than that before we think about lobbying for a referendum. Once bitten and all that.

[JamboGlen]

4 minutes ago, AlimOzturk said:

Keep voting in SNP governments, get a majority, how can they keep denying us a referendum?

Because The UK is a unitary state and sovereign territory in the eyes of the UN. So in the same way the Spanish government have no obligation to provide Catalonia with a referendum.

[lost in space]

32 minutes ago, Dennis Denuto said:

I mean there was a referendum to establish the Scottish parliament and a substantial majority voted in favour of it, you are not suggesting we should re-run a democratic referendum with a definitive result again are you?

Ha ha ha - very good point.

 

Yes, I am suggesting that we should have a devolution re-run in 2027 - because it will then have been 30 years since the last one - and everybody knows that there are 30 years in a generation!!

[lost in space]

33 minutes ago, AlimOzturk said:

Keep voting in SNP governments, get a majority, how can they keep denying us a referendum?

Its called "The Law".

[Dennis Denuto]

26 minutes ago, lost in space said:

Ha ha ha - very good point.

 

Yes, I am suggesting that we should have a devolution re-run in 2027 - because it will then have been 30 years since the last one - and everybody knows that there are 30 years in a generation!!

Fair enough, not sure it is worth it though, pretty certain the numbers in favour of it are still pretty high, even with all the flaws

[redjambo]

1 hour ago, JamboGlen said:

Because The UK is a unitary state and sovereign territory in the eyes of the UN. So in the same way the Spanish government have no obligation to provide Catalonia with a referendum.

 

"In the eyes of the UN". Just out of interest, what does that have to do with anything? The UN is a voluntary organisation of nations, a members' club so to speak. You'd probably be better pointing us at international law.

[Dennis Denuto]

3 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

"In the eyes of the UN". Just out of interest, what does that have to do with anything? The UN is a voluntary organisation of nations, a members' club so to speak. You'd probably be better pointing us at international law.

That's a wee bit Trumpy there Red!!

[redjambo]

30 minutes ago, Dennis Denuto said:

That's a wee bit Trumpy there Red!!

 

 It's true though. The UK being a member of the UN (in whose institutions I wholeheartedly believe ), means nothing. Ask Kosovo and Taiwan. It's UK & international law, combined with assent if said legislation requires, that would govern whether or not we have the right to a referendum.

[Malinga the Swinga]

2 hours ago, AlimOzturk said:

Keep voting in SNP governments, get a majority, how can they keep denying us a referendum?

Who is this is you speak of? I have no desire for a referendum and the majority of Scottish people do not vote for a independence party at an election so they don't either.

You seem to believe that a minority should be pandered to because you won't acknowledge that the country had a choice to make and they voted to remain in UK.

It's the nationalists who won't accept democracy.

[redjambo]

Just now, Malinga the Swinga said:

Who is this is you speak of? I have no desire for a referendum and the majority of Scottish people do not vote for a independence party at an election so they don't either.

 

 

So you believe that all folk vote purely on a single issue in elections?

 

Don't be daft.

 

The only practical way of telling the levels of desire for a referendum is by polling (or by having a referendum on a referendum, but let's not go down that route).

 

I personally want independence but don't want a referendum at the present time. You may well find that some unionists would like to see a referendum because they feel it would fail to gain independence and it would put the matter to bed for a while. I've seen someone express that opinion on here.

 

Who knows? But you can't take the results of elections in Scotland and somehow decide what that entails in terms of support for a referendum.

[JamboGlen]

2 hours ago, redjambo said:

 

"In the eyes of the UN". Just out of interest, what does that have to do with anything? The UN is a voluntary organisation of nations, a members' club so to speak. You'd probably be better pointing us at international law.

I'm guessing an independent Scotland would need to be recognised internationally? 

[Cruyff]

4 hours ago, Dennis Denuto said:

Not for me, as much as I want independence I only want it when enough people in Scotland want it too, not because the UK has become a Fascist Dictatorship run by total clowns.

I'll take an opportunity tbh. I think this would be an open goal. 

[Cruyff]

20 minutes ago, JamboGlen said:

I'm guessing an independent Scotland would need to be recognised internationally? 

The UN

[redjambo]

55 minutes ago, JamboGlen said:

I'm guessing an independent Scotland would need to be recognised internationally? 

 

The ones that count (trading partners, mostly) in the short-term, yes, the rest after that. As long as we get recognised by the major players, the others should follow behind. UN membership would be an important step, of course, but individual recognitions would be more important in the first place, imo. Reciprocal passport arrangements with as many countries as possible would be a priority.

 

Recognition of new sovereign territories by the vast majority of other territories worldwide can be quick or take quite a while, depending mostly on whether there are outstanding territorial or sovereignty disputes. Kosovo and Palestine are two examples of states that will probably receive quasi-universal recognition eventually, but it will take time. Northern Cyprus, Niue and the Cook Islands are examples of ones that might take a lot longer, if at all. Israel is currently only recognised by 83% of UN members.

 

[JamboGlen]

Anyone care to explain how the UK gets broken up based on a Scottish election result? A few seem to think voting SNP triggers that.

[JamboGlen]

2 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

The ones that count (trading partners, mostly) in the short-term, yes, the rest after that. As long as we get recognised by the major players, the others should follow behind. UN membership would be an important step, of course, but individual recognitions would be more important in the first place, imo. Reciprocal passport arrangements with as many countries as possible would be a priority.

 

Recognition of new sovereign territories by the vast majority of other territories worldwide can be quick or take quite a while, depending mostly on whether there are outstanding territorial or sovereignty disputes. Kosovo and Palestine are two examples of states that will probably receive quasi-universal recognition eventually, but it will take time. Northern Cyprus, Niue and the Cook Islands are examples of ones that might take a lot longer, if at all. Israel is currently only recognised by 83% of UN members.

 

Who are these major players that would recognise an independent Scotland if it was disputed by the UK government? 

 

The fact is the Scottish Parliament is a devolved administration of the UK and what happens next year at the election has no legal bearing on breaking up the UK.

[redjambo]

3 minutes ago, JamboGlen said:

Who are these major players that would recognise an independent Scotland if it was disputed by the UK government? 

 

The fact is the Scottish Parliament is a devolved administration of the UK and what happens next year at the election has no legal bearing on breaking up the UK.

 

You think I'm arguing with you but in reality I'm not.

 

It would be very much harder for Scotland to succeed if it neither had rUK consent for independence nor support from the major players.

 

Given that any election in Scotland would be to elect candidates representing, mostly, political parties, you can't interpolate support for a party to support for a specific policy. For that reason alone,  the result can't be seen as having any legal bearing on a referendum unless this is specifically covered by law. It can provide impetus, or a mandate for pressing for a referendum, but that's about it.

 

The only real difference between us is that I want independence and you don't. We're not all that far apart, I think, in opining on how it could be achieved.

 

[Libertarian]

6 minutes ago, JamboGlen said:

Anyone care to explain how the UK gets broken up based on a Scottish election result? A few seem to think voting SNP triggers that.

There are 73 constituency seats in the Scottish Parliament along with 56 list seats, a total of 129. Polls are suggesting that the SNP are likely to win around 55 constituency seats,  which due to the Maths of the d'Hondt system makes it highly unlikely that the SNP will win at most 2 seats (and possibly none) on the list.  However if SNP voters give their list vote to another independence supporting party such as Alba, then possibly another 40 independence supporting MSP's could be elected.  This would mean a majority of between 95 or 110 MSP's voting for a 2nd referendum and a tiny minority voting against. No Westminster Government could possibly stand against that as such a stance would be viewed as completely undemocratic, not only in the UK but also internationally. 

[Gundermann]

5 hours ago, Jacques de Gauthier said:

Great stuff. Hopefully we can carry that forward into the referendum itself. Remind me of the date it's happening, again?

 

Ask your man Starmer.

[JudyJudyJudy]

Groundhog Day arguments I see on this . Only vote that matters is a referendum . Bring it on . Let’s get it out the way for a real generation 

[redjambo]

15 minutes ago, Libertarian said:

There are 73 constituency seats in the Scottish Parliament along with 56 list seats, a total of 129. Polls are suggesting that the SNP are likely to win around 55 constituency seats,  which due to the Maths of the d'Hondt system makes it highly unlikely that the SNP will win at most 2 seats (and possibly none) on the list.  However if SNP voters give their list vote to another independence supporting party such as Alba, then possibly another 40 independence supporting MSP's could be elected.  This would mean a majority of between 95 or 110 MSP's voting for a 2nd referendum and a tiny minority voting against. No Westminster Government could possibly stand against that as such a stance would be viewed as completely undemocratic, not only in the UK but also internationally. 

 

Only if enough people put Alba on their ticket. Psychologically a difficult thing to do for a small party with limited support. I, for example, know it's the best decision, but it's going to be difficult dragging my vote away from SNP/SNP to be honest, in fear of wasting my list vote. However, I'll probably ending up doing it anyway.

 

If we have an SNP/Alba landslide though, I still think that all it does is give us a huge impetus to press for a referendum, and I'm still not sure that the time is right. We need sustained, solid support for independence before it will be. I personally don't want to see another defeat. I want us to build the pressure, arguments and planning until we know it's pretty much in the bag.

[Roxy Hearts]

5 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

Only if enough people put Alba on their ticket. Psychologically a difficult thing to do for a small party with limited support. I, for example, know it's the best decision, but it's going to be difficult dragging my vote away from SNP/SNP to be honest, in fear of wasting my list vote. However, I'll probably ending up doing it anyway.

 

If we have an SNP/Alba landslide though, I still think that all it does is give us a huge impetus to press for a referendum, and I'm still not sure that the time is right. We need sustained, solid support for independence before it will be. I personally don't want to see another defeat. I want us to build the pressure, arguments and planning until we know it's pretty much in the bag.

This is where I'm at.

[Libertarian]

Just now, redjambo said:

 

Only if enough people put Alba on their ticket. Psychologically a difficult thing to do for a small party with limited support. I, for example, know it's the best decision, but it's going to be difficult dragging my vote away from SNP/SNP to be honest, in fear of wasting my list vote. However, I'll probably ending up doing it anyway.

 

If we have an SNP/Alba landslide though, I still think that all it does is give us a huge impetus to press for a referendum, and I'm still not sure that the time is right. We need sustained, solid support for independence before it will be. I personally don't want to see another defeat. I want us to build the pressure, arguments and planning until we know it's pretty much in the bag.

Polls are now consistently showing support for independence north of 50% and growing. In 2014 when the referendum campaign started support for independence was down around 25% but by the end of the campaign was 45%. When (not if) the 2nd referendum campaign is launched,  support could grow from the current 57% to 70%. This is why Westminster and the British establishment are trying their best to stop a 2nd referendum,  because they know that they will lose and YES will win.

[Libertarian]

1 minute ago, Roxy Hearts said:

This is where I'm at.

Giving both votes to the SNP is basically allowing Unionist MSP's to get in on the list.  Look at Murdo Fraser for example,  he has never won an election in his life,  yet he keeps getting elected. 

 

[redjambo]

2 minutes ago, Libertarian said:

Polls are now consistently showing support for independence north of 50% and growing. In 2014 when the referendum campaign started support for independence was down around 25% but by the end of the campaign was 45%. When (not if) the 2nd referendum campaign is launched,  support could grow from the current 57% to 70%. This is why Westminster and the British establishment are trying their best to stop a 2nd referendum,  because they know that they will lose and YES will win.

 

Those figures aren't enough, and there's simply no way that support would grow from 57%, which is an outlier at the moment anyway, to 70%. Folk are less non-committal and more entrenched in their views now, for one thing.

 

Look at the leads, either way, in the following table and tell me, hand on heart, that you think we're in a solid enough place to have another referendum.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence

[JudyJudyJudy]

4 minutes ago, Libertarian said:

Giving both votes to the SNP is basically allowing Unionist MSP's to get in on the list.  Look at Murdo Fraser for example,  he has never won an election in his life,  yet he keeps getting elected. 

 

Lorna  Slater , Harvey  and Chapman 

[JudyJudyJudy]

15 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

Only if enough people put Alba on their ticket. Psychologically a difficult thing to do for a small party with limited support. I, for example, know it's the best decision, but it's going to be difficult dragging my vote away from SNP/SNP to be honest, in fear of wasting my list vote. However, I'll probably ending up doing it anyway.

 

If we have an SNP/Alba landslide though, I still think that all it does is give us a huge impetus to press for a referendum, and I'm still not sure that the time is right. We need sustained, solid support for independence before it will be. I personally don't want to see another defeat. I want us to build the pressure, arguments and planning until we know it's pretty much in the bag.

Unfortunately some Indy supporters would rather cut their nose off to spite their face and vote Alba because Alba have common sense policies on gender and other issues 

[Libertarian]

2 minutes ago, JudyJudyJudy said:

Lorna  Slater , Harvey  and Chapman 

That's what happens when people vote Green  - Never my favourite colour 

[redjambo]

1 minute ago, JudyJudyJudy said:

Unfortunately some Indy supporters would rather cut their nose off to spite their face and vote Alba because Alba have common sense policies on gender and other issues 

 

Hopefully not many. I would assume that most of the transgender rights folk are now firmly ensconced in the Greens camp.

[Libertarian]

1 minute ago, JudyJudyJudy said:

Unfortunately some Indy supporters would rather cut their nose off to spite their face and vote Alba because Alba have common sense policies on gender and other issues 

Alba are not standing in the constituency.  They are only standing on the list as their priority is to achieve independence. 

[JamboGlen]

43 minutes ago, Libertarian said:

There are 73 constituency seats in the Scottish Parliament along with 56 list seats, a total of 129. Polls are suggesting that the SNP are likely to win around 55 constituency seats,  which due to the Maths of the d'Hondt system makes it highly unlikely that the SNP will win at most 2 seats (and possibly none) on the list.  However if SNP voters give their list vote to another independence supporting party such as Alba, then possibly another 40 independence supporting MSP's could be elected.  This would mean a majority of between 95 or 110 MSP's voting for a 2nd referendum and a tiny minority voting against. No Westminster Government could possibly stand against that as such a stance would be viewed as completely undemocratic, not only in the UK but also internationally. 

Yes they could. The scottish parliament can't legally hold a referendum to break up the uk. 

[redjambo]

3 minutes ago, Libertarian said:

Alba are not standing in the constituency.  They are only standing on the list as their priority is to achieve independence. 

 

I think Judy may have meant some SNP voters being reticent to vote Alba as their list vote because of gender-belief reasons.

Edited October 1 by redjambo

[Libertarian]

6 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

Those figures aren't enough, and there's simply no way that support would grow from 57%, which is an outlier at the moment anyway, to 70%. Folk are less non-committal and more entrenched in their views now, for one thing.

 

Look at the leads, either way, in the following table and tell me, hand on heart, that you think we're in a solid enough place to have another referendum.

 

https://

It's interesting to note that YES would/will be starting from a much higher base than they did in 2014.

Another important point is that almost every single promise of Better Together in 2014 has been broken. People are also getting progressively poorer in an almost bankrupt British state which is increasingly rotten to its core.

[Libertarian]

3 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

I think Judy may have meant some SNP voters being reticent to vote Alba as their list vote because of gender-belief reasons.

Possibly,  however for anyone who really wants to achieve independence then the best strategy is to split your vote between the constituency and the list.  Personally, I can't stand the SNP but I will hold my nose and vote for them in the constituency and vote Alba on the list as I believe that without independence Scotland and the UK  are declining into poverty and hardship. 

[redjambo]

Just now, Libertarian said:

It's interesting to note that YES would/will be starting from a much higher base than they did in 2014.

Another important point is that almost every single promise of Better Together in 2014 has been broken. People are also getting progressively poorer in an almost bankrupt British state which is increasingly rotten to its core.

 

I know that, you know that, but it's still a question of persuading people who are inherently conservative (with a small c) into taking the step towards independence. It should be done carefully, systematically, persuasively, evidentially, rather than launching ourselves waving claymores forwards over the Culloden moorland. Unless something creates systemic change, such as Farage and Reform getting into power in the UK, let's take our time and continue building. And if Reform do take over the running of the country, let's be ready to mobilise a new push for independence in a way in which the SNP didn't when they dropped the ball after Brexit. 

[Jacques de Gauthier]

42 minutes ago, Gundermann said:

 

Ask your man Starmer.