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Patrick Bateman

It's calling for an increase in public sector jobs as it sees that as a way to stimulate the economy. It wants to couple this with increasing taxes on corporations - based on their global turnover.

 

Do they seriously expect big companies to want to operate here if they're going to be pummelled by a tax system that's much more severe than that of rUK?

 

I think their concern is for Scotland as a whole, not favouring 'big companies' at the expense of society. We've seen the sort of nation that neoliberalism creates and it's not an especially good one. We can and will learn lessons from the similar sized countries, with similar resources, who do significantly better. Besides, the UK system of taxation is an absolute mess.

 

Then why isn't their support increasing in the polls (the non-Panelbase-wings polls)?

 

I don't believe the polls, I've said this a number of times now. They've been wholly inaccurate in recent years. Labour were supposedly 11 points ahead of the SNP in 2011 and we know how that turned out. The same people are behind the respective campaigns.

 

The polls have shown a number of people have moved from No to undecided, I'd expect those numbers to increase and for more people to move towards a Yes vote. The pendulum is only going to swing one way on this.

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The publication of the White Paper was followed by a poll with a huge No majority. In fact, it might have been the first poll to show more than a 2 to 1 No lead. No poll since the referendum question was set has shown a Yes lead, with the exception of one a few weeks ago which as it turned out had a methodological flaw in it compared to other polls.

 

The poll also showed a 3% drop in support from no to undecided with yes support not moving.

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The polls have shown a number of people have moved from No to undecided, I'd expect those numbers to increase and for more people to move towards a Yes vote. The pendulum is only going to swing one way on this.

 

Doesn't that mean you think you're going to lose? Or were you spoofing us up when you said:

 

I don't believe the polls, I've said this a number of times now.

 

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The poll also showed a 3% drop in support from no to undecided with yes support not moving.

 

Polls of that sample size have a margin of error of the order of 3%. The two polls showed a difference that was inside the margin of error.

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Patrick Bateman

Doesn't that mean you think you're going to lose? Or were you spoofing us up when you said:

 

I should clarify; I don't think the polls are as accurate, and therefore, as far apart, as some people seem to think. Speaking from personal experience, I have seen dozens of people move from being a would-be no voter, to undecided or Yes. I have never met anyone who was a Yes voter who'll now vote No. If better together was so comfortable, and so far ahead, why are newspaper stories about Darling being 'comatose' and better together being 'amateurish' coming out?

 

http://wingsoverscotland.com/professional-standards/#more-45593

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I should clarify; I don't think the polls are as accurate, and therefore, as far apart, as some people seem to think. Speaking from personal experience, I have seen dozens of people move from being a would-be no voter, to undecided or Yes. I have never met anyone who was a Yes voter who'll now vote No. If better together was so comfortable, and so far ahead, why are newspaper stories about Darling being 'comatose' and better together being 'amateurish' coming out?

 

http://wingsoverscotland.com/professional-standards/#more-45593

 

Is that clarification or backtracking? You have nothing to offer by way of technical evaluation to support your personal bias. You want a Yes win, therefore you disbelieve polls that suggest a No win.

 

Speaking from personal experience, I know one person who has shifted from Yes to No (not undecided, No). Otherwise, I know no-one who has changed their position.

 

So, that's one personal unscientific story to cancel out another, and loads of other personal stories will do the same. When that happens, the closest we get to an objective measure are opinion polls - and every single reliable poll shows a clear No vote. That does not necessarily mean that the No side will inevitably win. But what it does mean is that if the referendum was taking place now the Yes side would be buried in a No landslide.

 

Moreover, the polls show that if the vote had taken place at any time over the last two years the result would have been the same. So it doesn't matter what name calling the Yes campaign and its supporters aim at the No side's people - the facts are that the No campaign is ahead and the Yes campaign is behind.

 

The Yes campaign is failing and needs to change. The White Paper is the political equivalent of a PowerPoint presentation by management consultants. The Yes campaign should use the Christmas and New Year period to reflect, should quietly but firmly park the paper and the managerialist guff it embodies, and should come out fighting with a clear vision of an independent Scotland.

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Some of the political personalities would obviously be finished - Salmond and Swinney presumably wouldn't survive long. They only get one shot at this. Sturgeon also presumably would be most likely to try to rekindle the fire.

 

And of course the zealots would not be satisfied with a 'no' vote and would continue to push for a further vote. A no vote on the scale of the current polls would likely set back their cause for a long time though.

 

Alternatively, surely Cameron would have to step down if there is a Yes vote. To be the Prime Minister who lost Scotland would outweigh even Lord North in the disastrous Prime Minister stakes!

 

Should No win, Salmond and Swinney for formulating the economic arguments and Robertson on the NATO question will be roundly derided in Nationalist circles. It's relatively forgotten that a party which used to have walk outs at most conferences and was always involved in internal division in some shape and form has been very quiet and united. Eyes on the prize mentalities always fade when they don't win the prize. I'd reckon all 3 would be "moved on" near the 2016 election. Salmond would most certainly be seen as a weak point in his position and would structure his stepping aside - likely to Sturgeon or Russell.

 

Should Yes win, Cameron will be booted by the Tory back benches. They already think he's a weak PM as he leads a coalition - I think he actually leads the 3 pary coalition well between the Tory-left and the Liberals well, the Tory-right is what undermines him. The Tories will no doubt turn to the right - Gove, May, Hammond or Hague. That may all hand the 2015 election to Miliband. As you say it'd be the biggest bloody nose any PM has taken since Ireland left the UK under the 1922 Treaty, maybe even since North lost the American Colonies.

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Patrick Bateman

Is that clarification or backtracking? You have nothing to offer by way of technical evaluation to support your personal bias. You want a Yes win, therefore you disbelieve polls that suggest a No win.

 

Speaking from personal experience, I know one person who has shifted from Yes to No (not undecided, No). Otherwise, I know no-one who has changed their position.

 

So, that's one personal unscientific story to cancel out another, and loads of other personal stories will do the same. When that happens, the closest we get to an objective measure are opinion polls - and every single reliable poll shows a clear No vote. That does not necessarily mean that the No side will inevitably win. But what it does mean is that if the referendum was taking place now the Yes side would be buried in a No landslide.

 

Moreover, the polls show that if the vote had taken place at any time over the last two years the result would have been the same. So it doesn't matter what name calling the Yes campaign and its supporters aim at the No side's people - the facts are that the No campaign is ahead and the Yes campaign is behind.

 

The Yes campaign is failing and needs to change. The White Paper is the political equivalent of a PowerPoint presentation by management consultants. The Yes campaign should use the Christmas and New Year period to reflect, should quietly but firmly park the paper and the managerialist guff it embodies, and should come out fighting with a clear vision of an independent Scotland.

 

Backtracking to where, exactly? You asked me to clarify my point, so I did. You can make all the assertions about whether No would win in a vote tomorrow that you wish, the vote isn't for another ten months, there are still a number of debates to come. As for you lecturing me about making assertions, have you read the rest of this thread? It's littered with them. That's kinda what happens when you debate future events; limiting this to a fact/poll based discussion would be pretty dull.

 

Now, if Yes is so far behind, why are the knives out for Alastair Darling and the better together campaign? What makes you think the absolutely dominant political machine that runs SNP campaign strategy has suddenly lost the plot and doesn't know how to convince people? This is tactical.

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Backtracking to where, exactly? You asked me to clarify my point, so I did. You can make all the assertions about whether No would win in a vote tomorrow that you wish, the vote isn't for another ten months, there are still a number of debates to come. As for you lecturing me about making assertions, have you read the rest of this thread? It's littered with them. That's kinda what happens when you debate future events; limiting this to a fact/poll based discussion would be pretty dull.

 

Now, if Yes is so far behind, why are the knives out for Alastair Darling and the better together campaign? What makes you think the absolutely dominant political machine that runs SNP campaign strategy has suddenly lost the plot and doesn't know how to convince people? This is tactical.

The Yes camp have to convince more people to vote Yes in the next 10months than they have managed in the last 30/40 years.

 

They have to convince every undecided voter & some no voters to switch.

 

There is no doubt that the SNP has a good team behind them but it'll have to be something monumental to achieve what they need to do,

 

It's not like the No camp won't be ramping up their campaign either.

 

During the jubilee and Olympics there was no real shift in the polls at a time when Britain was in full swing. If your hoping the Ryder Cup & commonwealth games will be a game changer I fear you'll be disappointed.

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I think their concern is for Scotland as a whole, not favouring 'big companies' at the expense of society. We've seen the sort of nation that neoliberalism creates and it's not an especially good one. We can and will learn lessons from the similar sized countries, with similar resources, who do significantly better. Besides, the UK system of taxation is an absolute mess.

 

Like Sweden who has charges for GP visits, have privately run and operated hospitals, free schools like Englands and private universities? I merely raise this not in getting at you, but to point out that a lot of the nations held up as paragons of virtue by the Yes camp are actually further to the right than we are and get big returns for it. It's not as simple or easy to say the nations to follow are more left than us. Many of them never nationalised heavy industries nor propped up failed ones. Very liberal. Very centrist. Not very Scottish. It's why we need to develop our own way of doing things and not adopt and borrow. That's where we as the UK and Scotland keep going wrong imo.

 

I don't believe the polls, I've said this a number of times now. They've been wholly inaccurate in recent years. Labour were supposedly 11 points ahead of the SNP in 2011 and we know how that turned out. The same people are behind the respective campaigns.

 

The polls have shown a number of people have moved from No to undecided, I'd expect those numbers to increase and for more people to move towards a Yes vote. The pendulum is only going to swing one way on this.

 

The same people are not behind these campaigns. Labour's 2011 debacle was lead by the Scottish Executive - Colin Smyth, Pia, Park and Gray. These guys have now taken a back seat and were cleared out in the Murphy-Boyack review in the wake of the defeat. This campaign is being lead by those in Labour who increased their vote share in 2010 in Scotland and stopped any SNP gains from developing for Westminster. The Scottish party shot itself in the foot by rejecting the assistance of the likes of Alexander and Murphy in 2011.

 

The polls have shown Yes at around 25-30% since the mid-90s on this question. Only 2 polls have shown a Yes lead;

The pannelbase poll of August 2013 and the Herald poll of August 2011 which should 39% to 38% favoured Yes with 23% undecided. If there was an inexorable swing in the Yes direction it would show undecided rising steadily or would show Yes gaining. In fact the opposite is the case as illustrated in this polling summary - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_independence_referendum,_2014#2013

 

Yes stays around the 25-35% zone, no in the high 40s to mid 50s and the undecideds only occasionally peaking 20%. If anything it shows a static position.

 

Not taking it for granted, merely pointing out that the evidence suggests other wise. That, however, as you say is open to change quickly. Salmond turned an 11% difference in his favour ove 3 months in 2011. When Yes Scotland is put onto the SNP's attack mode next summer I expect the fight to heat up. The best SNP strategists are already outnumbering most Yes Scotland staffers in senior rolls - Angus Robertson, Stephen Noon and Shirley Anne-Somerville - and are apparently gaining more of a say on tactical issues than Jenkins and Canavan.

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Now, if Yes is so far behind, why are the knives out for Alastair Darling and the better together campaign? What makes you think the absolutely dominant political machine that runs SNP campaign strategy has suddenly lost the plot and doesn't know how to convince people? This is tactical.

 

Since 2011, the SNP machine, whislt formidable, has began to stutter. They never won Glasgow or Edinburgh in 2012. They have been defeated in 1 by-election pretty soundly and had the majority in Donside cut by 13%. Not only that they have lost council-by elections in Glasgow, Aberdeen and Edinburgh. It'll be interesting to see how well they do in Helen Eadie's seat in January. But the well run machine looks like it's stuttering a bit.

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Backtracking to where, exactly? You asked me to clarify my point, so I did. You can make all the assertions about whether No would win in a vote tomorrow that you wish, the vote isn't for another ten months, there are still a number of debates to come. As for you lecturing me about making assertions, have you read the rest of this thread? It's littered with them. That's kinda what happens when you debate future events; limiting this to a fact/poll based discussion would be pretty dull.

 

Now, if Yes is so far behind, why are the knives out for Alastair Darling and the better together campaign? What makes you think the absolutely dominant political machine that runs SNP campaign strategy has suddenly lost the plot and doesn't know how to convince people? This is tactical.

 

You said you didn't believe polls, then you said you did. You're all over the place on this, because the reality is that you believe what you like seeing and disbelieve what you don't. I cam empathise with that, but your passion for independence does not make up for the fact that the Yes side is miles behind. You are desperate for any sign that will point to a Yes win, and if some personalised swipes at figures in the No campaign help create an impression that Yes might be in with a shout then you're all for that. Likewise, if a couple of polls show a narrowing gap you'll be quick to tell us how credible polls have suddenly become. Moreover, you are on record as saying that this referendum is not and should not be about national identity and the vision for an independent Scotland - but the day the Yes side do what I (and a good many others) reckon they need to do and change the focus of their campaign you'll ditch the percentages and decimal points and be telling us all that "it's the vision thing".

 

The Yes campaign simply has to change its approach - and, by the way, I have no doubt that this will happen as the weeks and months pass.

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Uly, what do you think Yes should be doing, how should they change?

 

I think the campaign should do what I've already suggested on this thread. I'm sure you'll recall it without me having to point you to it again; after all, you posted quibbling with me. ;)

 

Failing that, do a search for my posts on this thread containing the word "identity" and you won't go far wrong. :thumbsup:

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I think the campaign should do what I've already suggested on this thread. I'm sure you'll recall it without me having to point you to it again; after all, you posted quibbling with me. ;)

 

Failing that, do a search for my posts on this thread containing the word "identity" and you won't go far wrong. :thumbsup:

 

 

Can't locate the post, can't remember it fully either. Is it basically you think the campaign should be centred around the Scottish identity, is that correct?

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Alba gu Brath

You said you didn't believe polls, then you said you did. You're all over the place on this, because the reality is that you believe what you like seeing and disbelieve what you don't. I cam empathise with that, but your passion for independence does not make up for the fact that the Yes side is miles behind. You are desperate for any sign that will point to a Yes win, and if some personalised swipes at figures in the No campaign help create an impression that Yes might be in with a shout then you're all for that. Likewise, if a couple of polls show a narrowing gap you'll be quick to tell us how credible polls have suddenly become. Moreover, you are on record as saying that this referendum is not and should not be about national identity and the vision for an independent Scotland - but the day the Yes side do what I (and a good many others) reckon they need to do and change the focus of their campaign you'll ditch the percentages and decimal points and be telling us all that "it's the vision thing".

 

The Yes campaign simply has to change its approach - and, by the way, I have no doubt that this will happen as the weeks and months pass.

 

Can I assume that you're on board and actively involved then? Surely that's the best way to influence the campaign.

 

As to identity - it should be a part of the campaign and that's all though I'm not sure if we'll agree on which identity. Scottish culture and heritage is Gaelic for the most part - I see that but many Scots won't. Add to that the identities added to the mix over the past centuries - Norse, French, Italian, Polish, Jewish, Asian, Hispanic, English, Irish etc... From what I can make out, all this is already represented but it shouldn't take centre stage. This argument is about who is best place to run our affairs - our own government or one hundreds of miles away that has other priorities on its plate. Many aspects of identity and culture come down to personal choice and are/ should be outwith governmental influence/ direction. Some, say control over the media are pertinent.

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Can I assume that you're on board and actively involved then?

 

Of course not.

 

 

As to identity - it should be a part of the campaign and that's all though I'm not sure if we'll agree on which identity. Scottish culture and heritage is Gaelic for the most part - I see that but many Scots won't. Add to that the identities added to the mix over the past centuries - Norse, French, Italian, Polish, Jewish, Asian, Hispanic, English, Irish etc... From what I can make out, all this is already represented but it shouldn't take centre stage. This argument is about who is best place to run our affairs - our own government or one hundreds of miles away that has other priorities on its plate. Many aspects of identity and culture come down to personal choice and are/ should be outwith governmental influence/ direction. Some, say control over the media are pertinent.

 

It's not just a question of identity. It's a question of why identity is important in addressing the argument about who is best placed to run your affairs. The point is that the SNP - and let's face it, the SNP is the Yes campaign - won the 2011 election on the basis of managerial competence, and seem in effect to have decided that the same core philosophy will deliver a Yes vote in the referendum. But so far that approach isn't working.

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Executives from ASDA, TESCO, Sainsbury's & Morissons have told the FT that food prices will increase if we vote Yes.

 

Distribution costs are higher in Scotland - these are currently being disbursed over the whole if the UK.

 

I'll see if I can post the link.

 

This could be pretty important for the undecideds. It's an interesting intervention that presumably even the most devout Yes supporter cannot simply dismiss as scaremongering.

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Executives from ASDA, TESCO, Sainsbury's & Morissons have told the FT that food prices will increase if we vote Yes.

 

Distribution costs are higher in Scotland - these are currently being disbursed over the whole if the UK.

 

I'll see if I can post the link.

 

This could be pretty important for the undecideds. It's an interesting intervention that presumably even the most devout Yes supporter cannot simply dismiss as scaremongering.

 

 

Good, means more people shopping locally. And as soon as they do, watch that lot reduce their prices to try and drag customers back in. It's all smoke and mirrors.

 

Equally, the Spanish PM? Who gives two shits what he says. The guy's only interest is talking tough to the Catalan nationalists, nothing more. When Germany and France come out and agree, then I will take notice. Belgium can feck right off too :D

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Good, means more people shopping locally. And as soon as they do, watch that lot reduce their prices to try and drag customers back in. It's all smoke and mirrors.

 

Equally, the Spanish PM? Who gives two shits what he says. The guy's only interest is talking tough to the Catalan nationalists, nothing more. When Germany and France come out and agree, then I will take notice. Belgium can feck right off too :D

Smoke & mirrors ?

 

People tend not to shop locally because it's more expensive & less convenient.

 

The Spanish PM could effectively veto our entry as you need the agreement of all member states.

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Is that clarification or backtracking? You have nothing to offer by way of technical evaluation to support your personal bias. You want a Yes win, therefore you disbelieve polls that suggest a No win.

 

Speaking from personal experience, I know one person who has shifted from Yes to No (not undecided, No). Otherwise, I know no-one who has changed their position.

 

So, that's one personal unscientific story to cancel out another, and loads of other personal stories will do the same. When that happens, the closest we get to an objective measure are opinion polls - and every single reliable poll shows a clear No vote. That does not necessarily mean that the No side will inevitably win. But what it does mean is that if the referendum was taking place now the Yes side would be buried in a No landslide.

 

Moreover, the polls show that if the vote had taken place at any time over the last two years the result would have been the same. So it doesn't matter what name calling the Yes campaign and its supporters aim at the No side's people - the facts are that the No campaign is ahead and the Yes campaign is behind.

 

The Yes campaign is failing and needs to change. The White Paper is the political equivalent of a PowerPoint presentation by management consultants. The Yes campaign should use the Christmas and New Year period to reflect, should quietly but firmly park the paper and the managerialist guff it embodies, and should come out fighting with a clear vision of an independent Scotland.

 

I've been thinking a bit about the polls lately, mostly for the reasons you set out above. I wasn't really convinced by the results but I also knew that had I seen any major shift towards the yes side of things I might've been softened by scepticism and confirmation bias for convenience purposes :) So I did some reading and while I do already have some sort of grasp of methodologies and sampling etc, the info I found didn't leave me feeling any more reassured that the results were likely to be a truly accurate illustration of views. Yes, they're useful and everything but I don't believe they're worthy of the weight the press give them.

 

The sampling methodologies seem to differ so widely between pollsters that analysing progression of views or trends between them all is difficult to do in a properly scientific fashion, you'd really need to concentrate on one provider and stick with them over a good period of time if you want to do that. Plus the recruitment/selection process that some of them use is often built on pay/reward/panelist database type surveys which would surely indicate a high number of 'professional' poll contributors - the majority of which get into doing this stuff because they have opinions and want to share them. While this would probably tie in nicely with the idea that respondents to surveys are most likely to carry their reponses from survey to ballot box, it doesn't give you as good a flavour of those less politically motivated but still highly likely to vote. We're told (by polls!) that the turnout for the referendum is likely to be a good 20% higher than it is normally.

 

Add in the fact that around 30% of Scottish households no longer have a landline for phone polling and a huge percentage of those who do are ex-directory and you see less wiggle room for spreading the demographic net. Wording and order of questions, buggering about with weighting, artificial isolation of panellists from certain areas on the back of social media activity. They're all wee things but they add up, and effects are magnified when many are only using a sample of around 1000.

 

This isn't a remotely scientific approach to take but I've never been polled by any of these organisations (despite being a member of at least two of the biggies) and I don't know anyone else who has either. In short, I'd love to see the results of a poll from respondents who don't do polls. :biggrin:

Edited by redm
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I do agree that the Yes campaign needs to smarten up pretty quick though, and I fully expect to see a surge of activity after the break. On the most basic level it would be helpful if they started to realise that by getting caught up in political minutiae they might win the debate, but it's not going to win them the attention of the voters. Folk want detail but they don't generally want it on every single tiny issue. Clear messages backed up with detail need to be disseminated in manageable chunks. People endlessly repeat how they're concerned or worried or afraid of change, they need to react to that and find a way of cutting through the noise.

 

Also, I think the actions of the existing committed Yes voters could become crucial to the campaign in that it's up to them to normalise the idea of voting for independence. The more people that stand up and declare their intentions, talk about it, share info etc,. the less capable the No campaign will be in branding it as some outlandish and crazy notion that hardly anyone wants. Some will do that off their own backs, others will need to be taken by the hand and shown quite specifically how to do that. They'll need creative ideas and mechanisms in place to facilitate it though.

 

It's going to be an interesting few months.

 

On a different note, have any of you received your hard copy through the post yet? I ordered mine on the day the white paper was released but there's no sign of it.

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Who can register for the Scottish Independence Referendum?

To register to vote, you must:

? be resident in Scotland. There are special provisions for some voters who live abroad or do not have a fixed address etc...

 

Does anybody know what these 'special provisions' are for folk that live abroad?

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Executives from ASDA, TESCO, Sainsbury's & Morissons have told the FT that food prices will increase if we vote Yes.

 

Distribution costs are higher in Scotland - these are currently being disbursed over the whole if the UK.

 

I'll see if I can post the link.

 

This could be pretty important for the undecideds. It's an interesting intervention that presumably even the most devout Yes supporter cannot simply dismiss as scaremongering.

 

No problem, we can shop at Aldi or maybe Scottish supermarket chains will set up creating jobs at the same time.

 

You are aware that Scotland all ready has a excellent food industry.

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I've been thinking a bit about the polls lately, mostly for the reasons you set out above. I wasn't really convinced by the results but I also knew that had I seen any major shift towards the yes side of things I might've been softened by scepticism and confirmation bias for convenience purposes :) So I did some reading and while I do already have some sort of grasp of methodologies and sampling etc, the info I found didn't leave me feeling any more reassured that the results were likely to be a truly accurate illustration of views. Yes, they're useful and everything but I don't believe they're worthy of the weight the press give them.

 

The sampling methodologies seem to differ so widely between pollsters that analysing progression of views or trends between them all is difficult to do in a properly scientific fashion, you'd really need to concentrate on one provider and stick with them over a good period of time if you want to do that. Plus the recruitment/selection process that some of them use is often built on pay/reward/panelist database type surveys which would surely indicate a high number of 'professional' poll contributors - the majority of which get into doing this stuff because they have opinions and want to share them. While this would probably tie in nicely with the idea that respondents to surveys are most likely to carry their reponses from survey to ballot box, it doesn't give you as good a flavour of those less politically motivated but still highly likely to vote. We're told (by polls!) that the turnout for the referendum is likely to be a good 20% higher than it is normally.

 

Add in the fact that around 30% of Scottish households no longer have a landline for phone polling and a huge percentage of those who do are ex-directory and you see less wiggle room for spreading the demographic net. Wording and order of questions, buggering about with weighting, artificial isolation of panellists from certain areas on the back of social media activity. They're all wee things but they add up, and effects are magnified when many are only using a sample of around 1000.

 

This isn't a remotely scientific approach to take but I've never been polled by any of these organisations (despite being a member of at least two of the biggies) and I don't know anyone else who has either. In short, I'd love to see the results of a poll from respondents who don't do polls. :biggrin:

 

As you say yourself, it isn't a remotely scientific approach. ;)

 

Nor is what I'm about to say, but it is a killer argument nonetheless. You've typed a lot of words up there, which means you were motivated to type them. If the polls were showing a Yes lead you would not have been motivated and they wouldn't have been typed. That's nothing new - when our side of the argument is behind in the polls, we look for reasons to "say it ain't so". When our side is ahead, we don't.

 

Sampling and other technical challenges are nothing new for professional polling organisations. The particular issues you mention were also issues for the pollsters whose work accurately shadowed the result of (for example) the 2011 general election in Ireland and the 2012 U.S. elections.

 

The comment about sample size is a complete red herring, by the way, so please just park that one.

 

That is not to say that the vote will go the way of these polls. The polls give an indication of views as they are currently, and there is plenty of time to campaign and change the views of voters. The right way for the Yes campaign to approach that task, however, is to start with the assumption that the polls are accurate and that they have a big gap to close. There might be room for a bit of delusion or escapism on the part of amateur punters, but I'll bet the professionals are taking a more hard-nosed view.

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As you say yourself, it isn't a remotely scientific approach. ;)

 

Nor is what I'm about to say, but it is a killer argument nonetheless. You've typed a lot of words up there, which means you were motivated to type them. If the polls were showing a Yes lead you would not have been motivated and they wouldn't have been typed. That's nothing new - when our side of the argument is behind in the polls, we look for reasons to "say it ain't so". When our side is ahead, we don't.

 

Sampling and other technical challenges are nothing new for professional polling organisations. The particular issues you mention were also issues for the pollsters whose work accurately shadowed the result of (for example) the 2011 general election in Ireland and the 2012 U.S. elections.

 

The comment about sample size is a complete red herring, by the way, so please just park that one.

 

That is not to say that the vote will go the way of these polls. The polls give an indication of views as they are currently, and there is plenty of time to campaign and change the views of voters. The right way for the Yes campaign to approach that task, however, is to start with the assumption that the polls are accurate and that they have a big gap to close. There might be room for a bit of delusion or escapism on the part of amateur punters, but I'll bet the professionals are taking a more hard-nosed view.

 

I've been reading some analysis of polls in recent weeks so I had a lot of thoughts left over in my head. :biggrin:

And you're absolutely right, of course. If polls were showing the change I'm hoping for I wouldn't be giving the mechanics half as much attention.

I just have this idea in my head that these poll databases are mostly populated by Mums.net'ers or something. They most likely aren't.

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Geoff Kilpatrick

 

 

I've been reading some analysis of polls in recent weeks so I had a lot of thoughts left over in my head. :biggrin:

And you're absolutely right, of course. If polls were showing the change I'm hoping for I wouldn't be giving the mechanics half as much attention.

I just have this idea in my head that these poll databases are mostly populated by Mums.net'ers or something. They most likely aren't.

You would hope that the statisticians in market research would be minimising the standard error in opinion polls. Indeed, since the shock of the 1992 General Election to the pollsters, their polls have been very accurate on most issues.

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The Real Maroonblood

 

Executives from ASDA, TESCO, Sainsbury's & Morissons have told the FT that food prices will increase if we vote Yes.

 

Distribution costs are higher in Scotland - these are currently being disbursed over the whole if the UK.

 

I'll see if I can post the link.

 

This could be pretty important for the undecideds. It's an interesting intervention that presumably even the most devout Yes supporter cannot simply dismiss as scaremongering.

No they haven't.

Scaremongering.

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latest poll from STV/ Ipsos Mori

 

Yes 34%

No 57%

 

Slight increase in the Yes vote since last year. More worringly for Yes Scotland is more people are likely to vote No since the white paper was released.

 

210802-ipsos-mori-scottish-public-opinion-monitor-december-2014-white-paper-effect.jpg

Edited by GrimUpNorth
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two have, the other two have said no comment.

After a barrage of calls from the Scottish Government, no doubt.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25300398

 

Interesting BBC blog that has information about how the Scottish Government deals with those who go against what they think should be the way to operate. That certainly fits with the attitude of many of their social media supporters (not on here, I might add)

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latest poll from STV/ Ipsos Mori

 

Yes 34%

No 57%

 

Slight increase in the Yes vote since last year. More worringly for Yes Scotland is more people are likely to vote No since the white paper was released.

 

210802-ipsos-mori-scottish-public-opinion-monitor-december-2014-white-paper-effect.jpg

 

Is there a link for fuller analysis of that poll? Interesting stuff. Would suggest the Independence Manifesto is a flop.

 

 

 

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Alba gu Brath

As to supermart report....

 

http://www.businessforscotland.co.uk/supermarket-prices-may-fall-after-independence/

 

Let?s be absolutely clear: no supermarket has said that prices will rise in an independent Scotland. The FT headline is entirely inaccurate. In fact, it has been reported on the BBC website that:

?Neither Asda nor Morrisons said they had any plans to raise prices in an independent Scotland?. Meantime, Tesco and Sainsbury?s have distanced themselves from the report.

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Alba gu Brath

Of course not.

 

 

 

It's not just a question of identity. It's a question of why identity is important in addressing the argument about who is best placed to run your affairs. The point is that the SNP - and let's face it, the SNP is the Yes campaign - won the 2011 election on the basis of managerial competence, and seem in effect to have decided that the same core philosophy will deliver a Yes vote in the referendum. But so far that approach isn't working.

 

If you're not involved, why not? Your position here isn't clear other than to say that if YS/ SNP don't campaign on matters of identity they're gonna lose.

 

As to the SNP's campaign - at this stage before the last election they were on course to lose, big style. It didn't happen.

 

Perhaps you could clarify matters as to what this 'identity' based approach should look like?

 

Finally, I'm not SNP nor in any other party. Like I said before, I am a Gaelic speaker and see the language as the core of our ancient identity. I'm also aware of the other inputs into our culture and history. I'm not worried about my or my family's identity. But I do look for Scotland to have a direct, and competent, voice in world affairs and over her own affairs without the need for a middle-man, an expensive one at that, in London.

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If you're not involved, why not? Your position here isn't clear other than to say that if YS/ SNP don't campaign on matters of identity they're gonna lose.

 

Is Uly not in Ireland? May be wrong.

 

As to the SNP's campaign - at this stage before the last election they were on course to lose, big style. It didn't happen.

 

Perhaps you could clarify matters as to what this 'identity' based approach should look like?

 

Finally, I'm not SNP nor in any other party. Like I said before, I am a Gaelic speaker and see the language as the core of our ancient identity. I'm also aware of the other inputs into our culture and history. I'm not worried about my or my family's identity. But I do look for Scotland to have a direct, and competent, voice in world affairs and over her own affairs without the need for a middle-man, an expensive one at that, in London.

 

To me should the campaign take an "identity" approach it'd be along the lines that as Scots we differ from the rest of the UK in our ambitions, our desires, our values and our culture. To the extent that we should leave the UK to empower us to be different and be more "Scottish". Equally the No side would argue that as Brits we share values, ambitions and culture and should stay together to work together for the benefit of us all with power devolved where it'll do best for each part and where it'll be best worked on together.

 

Whilst I understand your position on the multicultural Scotland, and I know that we've touched on it before, but as a Lowland Scot from the West of Edinburgh with little connection and history to Gaelic Scotland or Gaelic culture I'd hesitate to say that was my culture, and that it was a key or central component of Scots culture. A similar thing occured in Ireland in the wake of the 1922 Treaty, De Valera pushed the celtic roots thing and encouraged the teaching of Gaelic to differentiate Ireland from the UK. Now, the history and the politics is different here, and I don't think that'd be the case in an independent Scotland, it is my opinion that we shouldn't place much emphasis on it. Yes it's a rich part of Scottish culture and life, but I'd argue for many it means little and wouldn't be identified by many as a key part of their Scots identity. Imo of course, as such a view can only be.

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jambos are go!

Tonights STV poll asked voters if the White Paper had influenced their voting intentions in the Referendum. Result

 

50% said it made no difference

20% said it made them more likely to vote NO.

18% said it made them more likely to vote YES.

 

Top of the STV headlines at 6pm. " Exclusive STV Poll shows more people likely to vote YES". Shocking and the YES campaign should be saying so.

Edited by jambos are go!
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Is Uly not in Ireland? May be wrong.

 

He is indeed.

 

Scotland is clearly different to other parts of the UK, and has a distinct national identity. Otherwise this debate simply would not be happening at all. However, the question at the heart of the independence debate is whether or not that distinct national identity - and the needs and ambitions of the people who have a stake in that identity - can best be served within the UK or outside it. This eight point four point nine point three percentage points in and out guff is not a relevant part of the debate, however much its proponents may wish it was.

 

There are people out there who believe that Scotland has a unique national identity that is best served by the current constitutional set-up, i.e. that Scotland is a nation within the British nation. There are people out there who don't believe that, and who believe that Scotland is best served by being independent of and separate from the other parts of the UK. For whatever reason, some people (including quite a few contributors to the debate on this forum) are framing the debate in low-grade managerialist terms more relevant to a local election campaign. :ninja:

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Alba gu Brath

Is Uly not in Ireland? May be wrong.

 

 

 

To me should the campaign take an "identity" approach it'd be along the lines that as Scots we differ from the rest of the UK in our ambitions, our desires, our values and our culture. To the extent that we should leave the UK to empower us to be different and be more "Scottish". Equally the No side would argue that as Brits we share values, ambitions and culture and should stay together to work together for the benefit of us all with power devolved where it'll do best for each part and where it'll be best worked on together.

 

Whilst I understand your position on the multicultural Scotland, and I know that we've touched on it before, but as a Lowland Scot from the West of Edinburgh with little connection and history to Gaelic Scotland or Gaelic culture I'd hesitate to say that was my culture, and that it was a key or central component of Scots culture. A similar thing occured in Ireland in the wake of the 1922 Treaty, De Valera pushed the celtic roots thing and encouraged the teaching of Gaelic to differentiate Ireland from the UK. Now, the history and the politics is different here, and I don't think that'd be the case in an independent Scotland, it is my opinion that we shouldn't place much emphasis on it. Yes it's a rich part of Scottish culture and life, but I'd argue for many it means little and wouldn't be identified by many as a key part of their Scots identity. Imo of course, as such a view can only be.

 

I agree, to a point which is why a flag-waving nationalist Celtic barny that wishes to 'reclaim' our identity or 'free it from the English' has little or no place in the Yes campaign. I mentioned above that my views on Gaelic won't be shared by everyone but the core of Scottish identity - historical identity at least - and iconography is Gaelic. Even regarding Hearts - Tynecastle (Taigh a' Chaisteil), Dalry (Dail Righ) and possibly Gorgie itself are all Gaelic placenames coined by past generations. As a Gaelic speaker, I can see/ read the Gaelic in my Lowland culture. I accept that others don't and while I believe Gaelic should be used by Yes as an ordinary medium it shouldn't be part of a De Valera type attempt to find some Celtic twilight. I'm not a crofter and know one or two other Jambos who are 'city Gaels' too.

 

I also find it refreshing that many 'new Scots' are involved in Yes - Asians, Poles, Spaniards, Germans and English.

 

I wonder what part Uly's argument would play in the devo campaign? Equally, and like I've said to Jambo x2 - will your positions be advanced by voting 'no'?

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Geoff Kilpatrick

So can we agree the supermarket story is another load of old shite then?

Probably. Surprising that the FT ran with it.

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I agree, to a point which is why a flag-waving nationalist Celtic barny that wishes to 'reclaim' our identity or 'free it from the English' has little or no place in the Yes campaign. I mentioned above that my views on Gaelic won't be shared by everyone but the core of Scottish identity - historical identity at least - and iconography is Gaelic. Even regarding Hearts - Tynecastle (Taigh a' Chaisteil), Dalry (Dail Righ) and possibly Gorgie itself are all Gaelic placenames coined by past generations. As a Gaelic speaker, I can see/ read the Gaelic in my Lowland culture. I accept that others don't and while I believe Gaelic should be used by Yes as an ordinary medium it shouldn't be part of a De Valera type attempt to find some Celtic twilight. I'm not a crofter and know one or two other Jambos who are 'city Gaels' too.

 

I also find it refreshing that many 'new Scots' are involved in Yes - Asians, Poles, Spaniards, Germans and English.

 

I wonder what part Uly's argument would play in the devo campaign? Equally, and like I've said to Jambo x2 - will your positions be advanced by voting 'no'?

 

Can I say I find that refreshing in both campaigns - however, Yes make better play of it. And Edinburgh - Dun Edin. Don't get me wrong I don't not recongnise the Gael in Scotland, it just carries less relevance to me as a Scot brought up on the notion of an English-speaking land which, in Edinburgh at least, shares much in common with Northumbrian-Geordie slang - bairn for example - than the Gaelic element. Each to there own though!

 

Uly's argument in a devo context was hit on very well - Scotland is a nation with a distinct character, which can achieve great things as part of the multi-cultural and multi-national British state. Devolution fits that narrative well. That to me is how I feel. I am a Scot who is also British as well. That to me is easy enough to live with and accept in a national and political context.

 

My positions - by that I think you mean politically - will be advanced by the left in Scotland (Labour, the Left of the SNP, the SSP and the Greens) actually taking more of an assertive position in which they can articulate some sort of vision which people will accept. I know few agree with me, but I don't particularly think Salmond, Swinney, Russell and MacAskill have a strong lefty streak in them - Salmond seems to have lost his over time, a bit like many New Labour men lost theirs. Therefore I'd like to see people of the left - Chisolm, Findley, Smith, Hepburn, Harvie, MacDonald, Fox, christ even Sturgeon push the narrative of the left better. That doesn't need constitutional change to happen. That needs political will.

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Smoke & mirrors ?

 

People tend not to shop locally because it's more expensive & less convenient.

 

The Spanish PM could effectively veto our entry as you need the agreement of all member states.

 

 

The Spanish PM will be lent on by the bigger countries and told to remember his place. As I said, unless Germany and France come out and say this, it's meaningless.

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The Spanish PM will be lent on by the bigger countries and told to remember his place. As I said, unless Germany and France come out and say this, it's meaningless.

 

Is that not an argument against being a smaller independent nation? In that diplomatic pressure can be easily brought to bear on a smaller nation to bend to the will of larger ones?

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