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Scottish independence and devolution superthread


Happy Hearts

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The amount of seethe over this is hilarious.

 

It'll be great seeing Eck noising up Westminster at the head of a 30-strong SNP delegation.

Good luck with your desire to see this.

 

You might just need it.....

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Guest Trapper John

Good luck with your desire to see this.

 

You might just need it.....

 

Yes, it sounds like the mulled wine has been hit somewhat early this year...

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Winning a lot of seats and opening the back door to a Tory government would be one.

 

 

 

This would be the best thing that could happen for the SNP. You realise that outwith a few biased souls on internet message boards nobody buys the "SNP elected Thatcher" stuff. It's not a discourse that has worked and that won't be changing anytime soon.

 

The key for Labour is to start telling a story again. They have the policies now but they need to get over the fear of their own shadow. Can't help that they are having to try and run two different campaigns between the UK and Scotland but they pay enough smart people enough money to come up with something.

 

Seriously. The "vote Labour or else you'll get Tories" is exactly the type of complacency and contempt towards Scotland that had us voting on independence a couple of months ago.

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This would be the best thing that could happen for the SNP. You realise that outwith a few biased souls on internet message boards nobody buys the "SNP elected Thatcher" stuff. It's not a discourse that has worked and that won't be changing anytime soon.

 

The key for Labour is to start telling a story again. They have the policies now but they need to get over the fear of their own shadow. Can't help that they are having to try and run two different campaigns between the UK and Scotland but they pay enough smart people enough money to come up with something.

 

Seriously. The "vote Labour or else you'll get Tories" is exactly the type of complacency and contempt towards Scotland that had us voting on independence a couple of months ago.

I think you are right. It's what I've been trying to put across but less eruditely.

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Has Mr Salmond moved away to Westminster at the right time leaving miss Sturgeon with the massive headache of today's news that the North Sea oil fields are close to shutting down ? (Sorry no idea as to how to post a link but it's on the bbc Scotland web site)

Don't think that'll happen but what a bullet to dodge , also if the vote had been yes what or where would we be with this news ?

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So who was the guy being interviewed on the 1oclock news then ?

I wouldn't know. I get to waste time on the internet at work, but not watch TV. I just thought it was interesting that the UK Government didn't see a huge problem here. I suspect the thing is that people don't seem to think the price will stay at $60 for that long. If it did, we might have a problem, but if it goes back up, as most experts appear to expect, then companies aren't going to cancel projects based on a short-term price change.

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Oil prices dip a bit for a few months, some folk are getting over excited and predicting the end of the oil industry in Scotland and using it as a stick to beat SNP/Yes voters with.

It's a temporary dip. Oil is still scarce and demand is still rising.

OPEC and the USA have gotten into a "who can produce the most" competition and this is why prices have fallen recently. It's just posturing by the big boys.

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Oil prices dip a bit for a few months, some folk are getting over excited and predicting the end of the oil industry in Scotland and using it as a stick to beat SNP/Yes voters with.

It's a temporary dip. Oil is still scarce and demand is still rising.

OPEC and the USA have gotten into a "who can produce the most" competition and this is why prices have fallen recently. It's just posturing by the big boys.

There's some truth in this. However, the industry in Scotland is clearly worried as people are being laid off at the moment. 

 

I think just about everyone now accepts that the oil projections in the White Paper were the stuff of complete fantasy (apart from it's authors, of course). I am not sure even many Yes voters believed it  themselves at the time. But it just shows you the problems that can occur when an economy is partially (15%) reliant on a volatile finite resource - that's value has plummeted recently).

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There's some truth in this. However, the industry in Scotland is clearly worried as people are being laid off at the moment. 

 

I think just about everyone now accepts that the oil projections in the White Paper were the stuff of complete fantasy (apart from it's authors, of course). I am not sure even many Yes voters believed it  themselves at the time. But it just shows you the problems that can occur when an economy is partially (15%) reliant on a volatile finite resource - that's value has plummeted recently).

It may volatile, but it certainly wont put the country in as bad a state as the financial services have,Trillion in debt, million made unemployed, now thats what i call volatile.

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How come fuel hasn't dropped 50% to match iyal? Maybe some JKB JR iyal worker type can explain ?

Because Government taxes make up most of the price you pay at the pumps. This is not affected by the price of crude.

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Because Government taxes make up most of the price you pay at the pumps. This is not affected by the price of crude.

This has always puzzled me surely the government only get a % of the sale whether it's sold at ?2-20 , ?1-20 or even 75p a litre or is it a set level they charge?
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jack D and coke

Oil prices dip a bit for a few months, some folk are getting over excited and predicting the end of the oil industry in Scotland and using it as a stick to beat SNP/Yes voters with.

It's a temporary dip. Oil is still scarce and demand is still rising.

OPEC and the USA have gotten into a "who can produce the most" competition and this is why prices have fallen recently. It's just posturing by the big boys.

Isn't it more to do with Russia? Russia being a huge exporter? London and Wall St playing a game with Putin to try to financially hurt them? This is what I've been reading....

 

Incidentally Russia raised interest rates by 6% yesterday to offset this price war and nobody batted an eyelid!!! Can you imagine what that would do to the UK or US? Incredible!!!

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Psychedelicropcircle

Thought I'd seen Gideons false dish saying he'd be watching Iyal companies prices as the barrel price dropped? I thought gov used % as well.

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It may volatile, but it certainly wont put the country in as bad a state as the financial services have,Trillion in debt, million made unemployed, now thats what i call volatile.

Whataboutery & deflection.

 

The white paper was a work of fantasy

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Rand Paul's Ray Bans

Whataboutery & deflection.

 

The white paper was a work of fantasy

 

From the Jum Murphy thread:

 

 

Career politician and expenses liberty taker - so is Salmond yurt his followers don't seem to ever acknowledge that.

 

Oh dear. 

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Guest Trapper John

Whataboutery & deflection.

 

The white paper was a work of fantasy

All $58 dollars a barrel of it.

 

But I guess inconvenient truths are anathema in the new Scotland...shh... don't mention oil.

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Psychedelicropcircle

The no voting unionist lovers go on about the indyref more that Yes supporters. You won deal with it.

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Its simple - SNPs whole economic argument has been blown right out the water.

 

The oil price is now ?59 per barrel, resulting in massive Gov't revenur reduction.  Added to this, the production forecasts from SNP were stupidly high, and misleading to the electorate.

 

SNP will of course ignore this, but thats what happens when a party tries to fool the people. It fooled quite a few on this site, i'll give them that.

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Its simple - SNPs whole economic argument has been blown right out the water.

 

The oil price is now ?59 per barrel, resulting in massive Gov't revenur reduction.  Added to this, the production forecasts from SNP were stupidly high, and misleading to the electorate.

 

SNP will of course ignore this, but thats what happens when a party tries to fool the people. It fooled quite a few on this site, i'll give them that.

 

Yes the SNP were wrong about the current price per barrel of oil but then so too were the unionists as its much lower than they anticipated. If YES had won the day full independence would have been in 2016.

 

Do you want to look into your crystal ball and tell me what the oil price will be in 18 months time?

 

In any case, oil was a large part of the economic plan but given the rest of the plans to be put in place, the economy was not to be built solely on oil.

 

No won, get over yourself!

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And if it had been a Yes vote I'm sure Wings would have written a long and detailed piece on how the drop in oil price was a Westminster engineered conspiracy to hamper an independent Scotland.

 

But anyway, referendum over, let's all move on until we have another one in a few years.

 

Salmond is easily winning this seat isn't he. Have to say I've quite enjoyed the snippets I've been seeing from Holyrood, seems a much nicer place to be and more grown up approach to politics without him showboating and shouting everytime he gets up to speak. Westminster is probably more his thing.

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jack D and coke

Its simple - SNPs whole economic argument has been blown right out the water.

 

The oil price is now ?59 per barrel, resulting in massive Gov't revenur reduction. Added to this, the production forecasts from SNP were stupidly high, and misleading to the electorate.

 

SNP will of course ignore this, but thats what happens when a party tries to fool the people. It fooled quite a few on this site, i'll give them that.

The oil price is due to London and wall st attempting to squeeze the Russians to hurt their economy but it's failed. The Russians put their interest rates up 6.5% to offset the price, something we can't do because our country is so unbelievbly debt ridden. 1% would put the west into meltdown.

 

The price won't stay low for long, demand is increasing not decreasing.

 

Can the Nats come back in 6 months and rub your nose in it when it goes back up or can the No voters stop casting up the referendum?

Edited by jack D and coke
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The oil price is due to London and wall st attempting to squeeze the Russians to hurt their economy but it's failed. The Russians put their interest rates up 6.5% to offset the price, something we can't do because our country is so unbelievbly debt ridden. 1% would put the west into meltdown.

 

The price won't stay low for long, demand is increasing not decreasing.

 

Can the Nats come back in 6 months and rub your nose in it when it goes back up or can the No voters stop casting up the referendum?

Its not the referendum in this instance - it isn't a dig at the Yes vote at large. For me it is a rightful dig at the SNP and their White Paper. They cannot be allowed to get away with their conduct just because the referendum is finished.

 

They were and are our party of government. They need to be held to account for what they did and tried to do. 

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jack D and coke

Its not the referendum in this instance - it isn't a dig at the Yes vote at large. For me it is a rightful dig at the SNP and their White Paper. They cannot be allowed to get away with their conduct just because the referendum is finished.

 

They were and are our party of government. They need to be held to account for what they did and tried to do.

So when the price goes back? Because it will....
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1. It doesn't seem to have failed - V. Putin has acknowledged an economic crisis.

2. If the debt is so high, what about some austerity?

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jack D and coke

1. It doesn't seem to have failed - V. Putin has acknowledged an economic crisis.

2. If the debt is so high, what about some austerity?

An economic crisis that they can sort out. Interest rates hiked, huge trade surplus, energy rich. Russia can ride it out no problem whereas if you believe some media stories we've brought our oil industry to the verge of collapse playing this game of chicken with them.

 

We're getting austerity whether we like it or not. Socialism for the banks and capitalism and austerity for the people.

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An economic crisis that they can sort out. Interest rates hiked, huge trade surplus, energy rich. Russia can ride it out no problem whereas if you believe some media stories we've brought our oil industry to the verge of collapse playing this game of chicken with them.

 

We're getting austerity whether we like it or not. Socialism for the banks and capitalism and austerity for the people.

Would you have preferred the banks to fail? We'll be getting the bailout dosh back remember - it wasn't a gift.

 

If the oil price goes up and maintains a $113 per barrel average price for a year I'll happily eat my words.

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jack D and coke

Would you have preferred the banks to fail? We'll be getting the bailout dosh back remember - it wasn't a gift.

 

If the oil price goes up and maintains a $113 per barrel average price for a year I'll happily eat my words.

I don't know to be honest I'm not that clued up on it but I have read in certain places they should've let them fail yes.

 

My biggest problem with it has been the allowance of the bonus culture to remain when they had to be rescued from total collapse. People who were in charge of hundreds of millions of pounds of losses (I worked for such a person who worked for RBS) getting bonuses and more isn't just wrong it's disgusting. The banks will offset these losses for years and years too paying virtually no tax the whole thing just isn't right.

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I don't know to be honest I'm not that clued up on it but I have read in certain places they should've let them fail yes.

 

My biggest problem with it has been the allowance of the bonus culture to remain when they had to be rescued from total collapse. People who were in charge of hundreds of millions of pounds of losses (I worked for such a person who worked for RBS) getting bonuses and more isn't just wrong it's disgusting. The banks will offset these losses for years and years too paying virtually no tax the whole thing just isn't right.

Bonus restrictions could/should have been written into the bail out agreements. They weren't though...

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The oil price is due to London and wall st attempting to squeeze the Russians to hurt their economy but it's failed. The Russians put their interest rates up 6.5% to offset the price, something we can't do because our country is so unbelievbly debt ridden. 1% would put the west into meltdown.

 

The price won't stay low for long, demand is increasing not decreasing.

 

Can the Nats come back in 6 months and rub your nose in it when it goes back up or can the No voters stop casting up the referendum?

Complete nonsense.

 

The oil price is nothing to do with London or Wall Street.     Its a simple global supply and demand market.   There is massive over-supply now.

 

Your prediction that my "nose will be rubbed in it" in six months is interesting.  Lets revisit that in May.

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jack D and coke

Complete nonsense.

 

The oil price is nothing to do with London or Wall Street. Its a simple global supply and demand market. There is massive over-supply now.

 

Your prediction that my "nose will be rubbed in it" in six months is interesting. Lets revisit that in May.

Depends where you get your information mate. The MSM line is its all to do with competing against shale but if other places are to be taken into account it's all to do with trying to put pressure on Russia who are big oil exporters.

 

One thing I'm sure you've noticed in your life is that the price of oil has always been on a downward trend hasn't it :gok:

 

I didn't say I was going to rub your nose in it I said the nationalists would have reason to when it goes back up. Because it will...

Edited by jack D and coke
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Isn't it more to do with Russia? Russia being a huge exporter? London and Wall St playing a game with Putin to try to financially hurt them? This is what I've been reading....

 

Incidentally Russia raised interest rates by 6% yesterday to offset this price war and nobody batted an eyelid!!! Can you imagine what that would do to the UK or US? Incredible!!!

You're right. This oil situation is power politics. Russia was set to ride out sanctions being imposed by the west over the Ukraine by pumping more and more oil on high prices. But the USA, EU and OPEC nations are ordering huge amounts to be brought into the market to collapse the oil price and provoke domestic and economic headaches for Putin forcing him to withdraw from the Ukraine.

 

Its 21st century power politics.

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jack D and coke

You're right. This oil situation is power politics. Russia was set to ride out sanctions being imposed by the west over the Ukraine by pumping more and more oil on high prices. But the USA, EU and OPEC nations are ordering huge amounts to be brought into the market to collapse the oil price and provoke domestic and economic headaches for Putin forcing him to withdraw from the Ukraine.

 

Its 21st century power politics.

I thank you Jambo X2.

 

I won't hold my breath for the apology from deeside tho.

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So when the price goes back? Because it will....

They'll still have been wrong. The SNP were predicting the price to remain near constant at that level and to rise in the years to come. Not to drop. They're entire spending plans were also based on rising oil prices, as was their borrowing plans. Had we been independent it would've been a major headache for an incoming government.

 

I abhor austerity, but the spending we need isnt what we've had. It's money for railways, roads, infrastructure in the round, money for schools, money for colleges, money for apprenticeships, money for childcare and money for housing. Not money for benefits, the NHS and similar things. Not saying cut welfare and the NHS. But at times like this child tax credit money is a waste as it's an unproductive benefit and more NHS money to keep certain hospitals open and not rationalising is again a waste to education money to skill workers.

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Psychedelicropcircle

* no it wouldn't as we'd be still part of the Union until 2016. When the dick measuring between the west and Russia is over (and russia is winning) the prices will return. Indyref regardless of outcome the oil price would be the same. It's called a global economy. In which everyone plays a part.

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jack D and coke

* no it wouldn't as we'd be still part of the Union until 2016. When the dick measuring between the west and Russia is over (and russia is winning) the prices will return. Indyref regardless of outcome the oil price would be the same. It's called a global economy. In which everyone plays a part.

Im sure some people thought we went indy on sept 18th eh :facepalm:
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* no it wouldn't as we'd be still part of the Union until 2016. When the dick measuring between the west and Russia is over (and russia is winning) the prices will return. Indyref regardless of outcome the oil price would be the same. It's called a global economy. In which everyone plays a part.

Yes we all know when where to break free. A slump in oil and gas prices and an emerging jobs crisis in North Sea Oil would've affected negotiations though and the likely shape of an independent Scotland's balance of trade.

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The situation in Russia is a textbook example of why the White Paper and subsequent SNP positioning was foolhardy on currency.

 

In similar circumstances of oil price crash, tethering the Scottish currency to that of the UK would have not seen the currency adjust, would not have seen monetary policy change and would have seen the Scottish reserves disappear in days.  As said during the referendum debate it is not controversial economics.

 

It is also why the Smith proposals are foolhardy and should be thrown out by Westminster.

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The situation in Russia is a textbook example of why the White Paper and subsequent SNP positioning was foolhardy on currency.

 

In similar circumstances of oil price crash, tethering the Scottish currency to that of the UK would have not seen the currency adjust, would not have seen monetary policy change and would have seen the Scottish reserves disappear in days. As said during the referendum debate it is not controversial economics.

 

It is also why the Smith proposals are foolhardy and should be thrown out by Westminster.

Why are the smith proposals flawed in the transfer of the tax it proposes to devolve?

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He can't help himself. Became used to being treated like a King by his followers.

 

He then lost the referendum, had to stand down and will now have to fight for limelight. I bet Sturgeon probably wishes he'd GTF

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