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ri Alban

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No, recovery not complete. They've still to pay back loans. It will take them a long, long time (decades) to do so. Effectively they'll be living on a shoestring for a long while.

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2 hours ago, redjambo said:

No, recovery not complete. They've still to pay back loans. It will take them a long, long time (decades) to do so. Effectively they'll be living on a shoestring for a long while.

 

And all the while praying like feck that there isn't another recession or economic slowdown and not just in their own economy either.

 

Unfortunately the signs are not looking good, we have Trump's spat with Turkey and the fears that Turkey could fall into recession, Trump's trade/tariff war with the EU/World, a general slowdown in World economies, the recent alarming decrease concerning copper and of course throw Brexit into the mix and the distinct possibility of a no deal, and things in the Eurozone/EU/Europe/World might be about to get a bit hairy for the foreseeable, all of this is bad bad news for Greece and Italy.

 

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3 hours ago, redjambo said:

No, recovery not complete. They've still to pay back loans. It will take them a long, long time (decades) to do so. Effectively they'll be living on a shoestring for a long while.

 

True.  The Greek economy was supported by low-interest loans of more than €320 billion, yet it stagnated terribly.  Imagine what an appalling state the economy would have been in without the loans keeping it afloat.  :eek:

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36 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

 

True.  The Greek economy was supported by low-interest loans of more than €320 billion, yet it stagnated terribly.  Imagine what an appalling state the economy would have been in without the loans keeping it afloat.  :eek:

 

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1 hour ago, Ulysses said:

 

True.  The UK economy was supported by low-interest rates and money printing of more than £375 billion, yet it stagnated terribly.  Imagine what an appalling state the economy would have been in without this keeping it afloat.  :eek:

 

Funny how that statement can be amended to fit our own circumstances!

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doctor jambo
2 hours ago, Ulysses said:

 

True.  The Greek economy was supported by low-interest loans of more than €320 billion, yet it stagnated terribly.  Imagine what an appalling state the economy would have been in without the loans keeping it afloat.  :eek:

A brief terrible spell followed by a sustainable recovery ?

 

As opposed to 10 years of horror, with not a euro repaid,  their gross debt vastly higher than when it all began and in all likelihood having their economy run externally as a proxy state for the indefinite future

 

 

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6 hours ago, redjambo said:

No, recovery not complete. They've still to pay back loans. It will take them a long, long time (decades) to do so. Effectively they'll be living on a shoestring for a long while.

Yes, but at a normal rate, red. 

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2 hours ago, Ulysses said:

 

True.  The Greek economy was supported by low-interest loans of more than €320 billion, yet it stagnated terribly.  Imagine what an appalling state the economy would have been in without the loans keeping it afloat.  :eek:

Just like Ireland? You tapped a fortune off Scotland and England. 

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Maybe Greek governments won't in future be maxing out the nation's credit on insane policies like 100% final wage pensions at the age of 55 in order to chase votes.

 

That's how they got themselves in the shite in the first place.

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19 minutes ago, Cade said:

Maybe Greek governments won't in future be maxing out the nation's credit on insane policies like 100% final wage pensions at the age of 55 in order to chase votes.

 

That's how they got themselves in the shite in the first place.

 

That, and a tax collection system which wasn't fit for purpose.

 

Indeed there wasn't one single factor which tipped Greece into the abyss, but many different things which all had a cumulative effect over several years.

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25 minutes ago, Jambo-Jimbo said:

 

That, and a tax collection system which wasn't fit for purpose.

 

Indeed there wasn't one single factor which tipped Greece into the abyss, but many different things which all had a cumulative effect over several years.

Yep, huge over-spending, massive amounts of tax evasion and rampant corruption, lots of factors trapped their economy in a death spiral and the drying up of cheap credit after the global financial events of 2008 left them with nowhere to go.

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3 hours ago, doctor jambo said:

A brief terrible spell followed by a sustainable recovery ?

 

As opposed to 10 years of horror, with not a euro repaid,  their gross debt vastly higher than when it all began and in all likelihood having their economy run externally as a proxy state for the indefinite future

 

 

 

That's easy for you to say.

 

At various points between 2011 and 2016, Greece would have gone under without the soft landing provided by the bailout programmes.  Gone under, as in ceased to exist in any meaningful way as an economy or as a society.  At one stage one-third of the money being generated in the Greek economy was being lent to it by the EU and the IMF.  For several years nearly 100% of its banking liquidity was being provided by money lent by the EU and the IMF.  If that money had not been there GDP would have collapsed, to the extent that if they were lucky rural regions of Greece would have had income levels lower than 20% of the EU average and more like the income levels you see in poor countries in Central America, Asia and parts of Africa.  And that's if they were lucky.  Unemployment rates would have hit more than 50%.  The government would instantly have had no money to pay any of its public servants.  The already battered health and welfare systems would have ceased to function at all.  Every bank in Greece would have gone into liquidation.  Every cent of savings or capital in the economy would have disappeared except for any that wealthier Greeks would have had in foreign banks.  There would have been no money in the system except the cash that happened to be on the streets at the time of the closure of the banks.

 

Whether people like it or not, the EU/IMF support programmes were not austerity programmes; they were the best available alternatives to a rock-hard crash landing for the economies concerned.  The problem for the countries who had to engage in those programmes was not the engagement - it was the fact that their governments screwed their economies up in the first place.  Greece was hit harder than the others for two reasons.  Firstly, it screwed up even more than the others - its governments repeatedly covered up and falsified Greece's economic data.  Secondly, every time the situation got so bad that a bailout became the only option the Greek governments of the day dithered and pissed about before getting on with it, taking the bailout and doing what needed to be done.

 

A brief terrible spell was never an option.  The time could have been shorter if Greek governments had been quicker to adjust between 2010 and 2015, but they weren't.  Since the third bailout, things have gone from worse to bad for Greece, so to speak.  The economy shrank by a fraction in 2016, but saw slight growth in 2017.  Now Greece finally has the chance to build its economy slowly and sustainably, and hopefully it will do so and not resort to the corruption and fantasy economics that characterised the country from the 1970s onwards.

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2 hours ago, ri Alban said:

Just like Ireland? You tapped a fortune off Scotland and England. 

 

Hi Aussie.  You seem to need to read up on the component regions of the United Kingdom.  Still, hopefully any Welsh or Northern Irish readers won't be too bothered.  :thumbsup:

 

Along with Greece, Spain and Portugal, Ireland was one of the countries who had to be bailed out.  Ireland was bailed out, and unlike Greece Ireland got on with it and made the adjustments it had to make as quickly as it could, exiting the Programme in December 2013, and becoming the fastest-growing economy in the EU every year since.  As well as being lent money by the EU and the IMF, Ireland was lent money bilaterally by the Governments of Denmark, Sweden and the United Kingdom. 

 

The amount borrowed (about £3 billion) could be described as "a fortune", though the bilateral loan from the United Kingdom was about 5% of the amount lent by the EU and the IMF, and roughly enough to cover Scotland's government deficit for about 3, maybe 4 months.  But it was a demonstration of bilateral support from the United Kingdom for its close neighbour and trading partner, and it showed how much relations between the two neighbours had developed and improved over the years, so it was very welcome indeed.

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1 hour ago, Cade said:

Maybe Greek governments won't in future be maxing out the nation's credit on insane policies like 100% final wage pensions at the age of 55 in order to chase votes.

 

That's how they got themselves in the shite in the first place.

 

 

Many of those policies were introduced after the fall of the right-wing military dictatorship in 1974.  Greek centre-right and centre-left politicians seemed to share the notion that if elected governments gave out lots of goodies to the population then a return to dictatorship would be less likely to happen.

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8 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

 

Hi Aussie.  You seem to need to read up on the component regions of the United Kingdom.  Still, hopefully any Welsh or Northern Irish readers won't be too bothered.  :thumbsup:

 

Along with Greece, Spain and Portugal, Ireland was one of the countries who had to be bailed out.  Ireland was bailed out, and unlike Greece Ireland got on with it and made the adjustments it had to make as quickly as it could, exiting the Programme in December 2013, and becoming the fastest-growing economy in the EU every year since.  As well as being lent money by the EU and the IMF, Ireland was lent money bilaterally by the Governments of Denmark, Sweden and the United Kingdom. 

 

The amount borrowed (about £3 billion) could be described as "a fortune", though the bilateral loan from the United Kingdom was about 5% of the amount lent by the EU and the IMF, and roughly enough to cover Scotland's government deficit for about 3, maybe 4 months.  But it was a demonstration of bilateral support from the United Kingdom for its close neighbour and trading partner, and it showed how much relations between the two neighbours had developed and improved over the years, so it was very welcome indeed.

:D I'm only pulling yer leg. 

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1 minute ago, ri Alban said:

:D I'm only pulling yer leg. 

 

Ooh, you are a one. :)  I'm glad you did though as Ulysses' reply was very interesting - I didn't know half that info.

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4 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

Ooh, you are a one. :)  I'm glad you did though as Ulysses' reply was very interesting - I didn't know half that info.

I knew. Na Na, Na Na, Na! ?

 

Where have you been? 

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6 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

Ooh, you are a one. :)  I'm glad you did though as Ulysses' reply was very interesting - I didn't know half that info.

 

There's more.  Ireland has repaid the IMF, Denmark and Sweden ahead of schedule, but not the ECB or the UK.  Ireland still could repay those ahead of time, but hasn't done so yet.  Exactly why the early repayments were done in that sequence, I don't know.

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1 minute ago, ri Alban said:

I knew. Na Na, Na Na, Na! ?

 

Where have you been? 

 

Just travelling, trying to enjoy Europe while we're still part of it. :D

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Just now, redjambo said:

 

Just travelling, trying to enjoy Europe while we're still part of it. :D

Shit, we're not the 52nd state, are we. 

Nooooooooooo!!!!!!!! 

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4 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

 

There's more.  Ireland has repaid the IMF, Denmark and Sweden ahead of schedule, but not the ECB or the UK.  Ireland still could repay those ahead of time, but hasn't done so yet.  Exactly why the early repayments were done in that sequence, I don't know.

 

I like the idea that Ireland hasn't repaid the UK yet. I don't know why I have that feeling but it shows more appreciation for the loan to pay it back at the end of the period and not before. Not wanting to show that you're desperate to end the loan early because of the nature of the party who lent you the money, perhaps.

 

In general, the warming of the relationship between the UK and Ireland is one of the political changes that has given me the most satisfaction over recent decades. That singing of the anthem at Croke Park was simply amazing. There's far more that unites us than divides us, and I'm glad that we've rediscovered that.

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1 hour ago, Ulysses said:

 

That's easy for you to say.

 

At various points between 2011 and 2016, Greece would have gone under without the soft landing provided by the bailout programmes.  Gone under, as in ceased to exist in any meaningful way as an economy or as a society.  At one stage one-third of the money being generated in the Greek economy was being lent to it by the EU and the IMF.  For several years nearly 100% of its banking liquidity was being provided by money lent by the EU and the IMF.  If that money had not been there GDP would have collapsed, to the extent that if they were lucky rural regions of Greece would have had income levels lower than 20% of the EU average and more like the income levels you see in poor countries in Central America, Asia and parts of Africa.  And that's if they were lucky.  Unemployment rates would have hit more than 50%.  The government would instantly have had no money to pay any of its public servants.  The already battered health and welfare systems would have ceased to function at all.  Every bank in Greece would have gone into liquidation.  Every cent of savings or capital in the economy would have disappeared except for any that wealthier Greeks would have had in foreign banks.  There would have been no money in the system except the cash that happened to be on the streets at the time of the closure of the banks.

 

Whether people like it or not, the EU/IMF support programmes were not austerity programmes; they were the best available alternatives to a rock-hard crash landing for the economies concerned.  The problem for the countries who had to engage in those programmes was not the engagement - it was the fact that their governments screwed their economies up in the first place.  Greece was hit harder than the others for two reasons.  Firstly, it screwed up even more than the others - its governments repeatedly covered up and falsified Greece's economic data.  Secondly, every time the situation got so bad that a bailout became the only option the Greek governments of the day dithered and pissed about before getting on with it, taking the bailout and doing what needed to be done.

 

A brief terrible spell was never an option.  The time could have been shorter if Greek governments had been quicker to adjust between 2010 and 2015, but they weren't.  Since the third bailout, things have gone from worse to bad for Greece, so to speak.  The economy shrank by a fraction in 2016, but saw slight growth in 2017.  Now Greece finally has the chance to build its economy slowly and sustainably, and hopefully it will do so and not resort to the corruption and fantasy economics that characterised the country from the 1970s onwards.

 

Good post. I guess the Germans using the weaker economies of southern Europe to help their export industry didn't help either...

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5 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

I like the idea that Ireland hasn't repaid the UK yet. I don't know why I have that feeling but it shows more appreciation for the loan to pay it back at the end of the period and not before. Not wanting to show that you're desperate to end the loan early because of the nature of the party who lent you the money, perhaps.

 

In general, the warming of the relationship between the UK and Ireland is one of the political changes that has given me the most satisfaction over recent decades. That singing of the anthem at Croke Park was simply amazing. There's far more that unites us than divides us, and I'm glad that we've rediscovered that.

 

 

Hard to believe that the anthems at Croke Park were more than 11 years ago.  The years fly by, and none of us are getting any younger.

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6 minutes ago, Craig_ said:

 

Good post. I guess the Germans using the weaker economies of southern Europe to help their export industry didn't help either...

 

In Greece's case that's partly true - but the Greeks also massively increased imports from Italy and Russia (!) after Greece joined the Eurozone.  And if people want to blame Germany for taking advantage of "austerity" as some do, bear in mind that since the bailouts began German exports to Greece have fallen by more than 50%.

 

That said, it's certainly true in Spain's case, where imports have generally increased since Spain adopted the euro, and imports from Germany more so than anywhere else in Europe.

 

 

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Let's not forget that during this austerity the Greek GDP has shrunk by 30%.

That living standards amongst the poorest are unbearable.

That the middle class has all but disappeared.

That visible signs in the Greek infrastructure such as basic road signage has all but disappeared.

That it is now almost as cheap to buy halloumi in the UK as Greece.

That fruit and veg are almost beyond the reach of the poor.

That tax has gone up.

That rates have gone up.

 

Absolute brutal austerity brought to you from the EU.

To protect German banks.

 

And some of the same posters who rally against Tory austerity which in comparison look like socialist worker finances should wonder if their guardian led dogma is blinding them.

 

When you look at the favourable bail outs to financial institutions with little or no punishment you have to wonder .

 

Rant over .

And I make no apologies.

 

And Greece is not out of the woods by a long shot.

 

 

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It's amazing what you forget.  In listing the countries who were bailed out by the EU, the IMF, other international lenders, bilateral loans or a combination of some or all of those, I left out Cyprus (€12.5 bn), Hungary (€15.6 bn), Latvia (€4.5 bn), and Romania (€23.3 bn).

 

Adding those to Greece (€302 bn), Ireland (€68.2 bn), Portugal (€76.8 bn) and Spain (€41.3 bn) the total of emergency loans to those eight countries was about €544 billion.

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12 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

 

In Greece's case that's partly true - but the Greeks also massively increased imports from Italy and Russia (!) after Greece joined the Eurozone.  And if people want to blame Germany for taking advantage of "austerity" as some do, bear in mind that since the bailouts began German exports to Greece have fallen by more than 50%.

 

That said, it's certainly true in Spain's case, where imports have generally increased since Spain adopted the euro, and imports from Germany more so than anywhere else in Europe.

 

 

Imports from Germany.

Now why am I not surprised

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1 minute ago, Ulysses said:

It's amazing what you forget.  In listing the countries who were bailed out by the EU, the IMF, other international lenders, bilateral loans or a combination of some or all of those, I left out Cyprus (€12.5 bn), Hungary (€15.6 bn), Latvia (€4.5 bn), and Romania (€23.3 bn).

 

Adding those to Greece (€302 bn), Ireland (€68.2 bn), Portugal (€76.8 bn) and Spain (€41.3 bn) the total of emergency loans to those eight countries was about €544 billion.

Or the UK .

Which bailed itself out to the tune at the expense of the taxpayer to more than all of those combined.

 

Austerity measures imposed and opposed .

Opposed by some posters who seem to celebrate the suffering of the Greeks.

Not you by the way .

Perhaps if you can be bothered remind us how much that bill was .

My ball park guess is 700 billion.

 

 

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4 minutes ago, jake said:

 

Absolute brutal austerity brought to you from the EU.

To protect German banks.

 

 

The actions of successive Greek governments brought austerity.

 

The EU and the IMF brought the alternative to a crash landing. 

 

Without that it would have been a far worse calamity for Greece.  You don't understand that, and therefore have no capacity to appreciate it, but it would have been Europe's biggest refugee and aid crisis since the end of the Second World War.  That's how bad it was. 

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Just now, jake said:

I'm out .

Blood pressure.

 

 

The Greeks were screwed over by the foolish actions of their own governments.  If the EU and the IMF had not pumped a fortune into their economy - almost €80,000 for each household in Greece - the consequences would have been a multiple of what happened.

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Just now, Ulysses said:

 

The actions of successive Greek governments brought austerity.

 

The EU and the IMF brought the alternative to a crash landing. 

 

Without that it would have been a far worse calamity for Greece.  You don't understand that, and therefore have no capacity to appreciate it, but it would have been Europe's biggest refugee and aid crisis since the end of the Second World War.  That's how bad it was. 

That's your view.

But not how those involved at the highest level viewed it.

It was indeed put together to protect German financial interests.

And to dress it up as anything else is fanciful .

The Greek debt was owed to mostly German banks and the default was only avoided to protect them.

Absolute pie in the sky to pretend it was to avoid humanitarian disaster.

You should acquaint yourself with the on going suffering with the poor in Greece.

Instead of fairy tale defence of your love in with the EU.

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2 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

 

 

The Greeks were screwed over by the foolish actions of their own governments.  If the EU and the IMF had not pumped a fortune into their economy - almost €80,000 for each household in Greece - the consequences would have been a multiple of what happened.

Every western government and financial institution was and had been and continue to be foolish.

If you honestly believe that the bail out from the EU was to protect Greece and not the foolish institutions who made these loans then there is no point continuing this .

 

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German political muscle also will move to protect its foolish financial institutions bad debt in Italy.

 

But the narrative will be the poor will definitely pay the middle class will most likely pay.

But it's all good because balancing the books to protect the rich is really a liberal EU thing.

 

Holy fekin fekin fek.

 

 

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Just now, jake said:

That's your view.

 

 

It's nothing to do with my view.  It is a fact that the Greek banks had completely run out of money.  It is a fact that the Greek government had no money to pay its bills, or to pay the wages of its teachers, health workers and other public servants.  If the EU and the IMF had not made the bailout funding available, the banks would have had no choice but to close - because they would have had no money to hand out to people.  Even if the Greek government had written cheques to its workers, and ordered the banks to pay out on those cheques, the banks could not have done so - because they had no money.  Literally the only money in the Greek economy apart from what the EU and the IMF was offering was cash on the streets and in the handbags and pockets of Greeks. 

 

The Greek government decided to tough it out and play hardball with the EU and the IMF in the spring and summer of 2015.  The EU and the IMF left them to their own devices.  What happened?  Greek businesses stopped taking credit card and debit card payments for fear the banks would not make good on the money.  People had to queue at the banks to withdraw a maximum of €60 a day - and that would have run out eventually.  Government payroll runs to pay their workers were delayed, sometimes by several weeks.

 

You have simply no ability to imagine what choices those people were facing - and you weren't facing them, so get off your high horse.

 

My point is not that the bailouts were "good" or "bad".  My point was that if the Greek governments had refused any one of them their economy and society would have imploded completely, with consequences far worse than what happened.

 

€80,000 per household.  That's not an opinion, it's a fact.

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15 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

 

It's nothing to do with my view.  It is a fact that the Greek banks had completely run out of money.  It is a fact that the Greek government had no money to pay its bills, or to pay the wages of its teachers, health workers and other public servants.  If the EU and the IMF had not made the bailout funding available, the banks would have had no choice but to close - because they would have had no money to hand out to people.  Even if the Greek government had written cheques to its workers, and ordered the banks to pay out on those cheques, the banks could not have done so - because they had no money.  Literally the only money in the Greek economy apart from what the EU and the IMF was offering was cash on the streets and in the handbags and pockets of Greeks. 

 

The Greek government decided to tough it out and play hardball with the EU and the IMF in the spring and summer of 2015.  The EU and the IMF left them to their own devices.  What happened?  Greek businesses stopped taking credit card and debit card payments for fear the banks would not make good on the money.  People had to queue at the banks to withdraw a maximum of €60 a day - and that would have run out eventually.  Government payroll runs to pay their workers were delayed, sometimes by several weeks.

 

You have simply no ability to imagine what choices those people were facing - and you weren't facing them, so get off your high horse.

 

My point is not that the bailouts were "good" or "bad".  My point was that if the Greek governments had refused any one of them their economy and society would have imploded completely, with consequences far worse than what happened.

 

€80,000 per household.  That's not an opinion, it's a fact.

UK debt per household as GDP is currently 30 ,000 despite being one of the strongest economies worldwide.

 

Fact.

 

German household debt to GDP

similar to UK

 

Fact

 

Here's a fact.

 

https://m.dw.com/en/most-of-greek-bailout-money-went-to-banks-study/a-19234391?xtref=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.co.uk%2F

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High horse.

Is this the new slap down of people who see the effects of irresponsible greed and foolish financiers who are immune from responsibility.

Of those who call out those who defend an austerity mad organisation.

 

 

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29 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

 

It's nothing to do with my view.  It is a fact that the Greek banks had completely run out of money.  It is a fact that the Greek government had no money to pay its bills, or to pay the wages of its teachers, health workers and other public servants.  If the EU and the IMF had not made the bailout funding available, the banks would have had no choice but to close - because they would have had no money to hand out to people.  Even if the Greek government had written cheques to its workers, and ordered the banks to pay out on those cheques, the banks could not have done so - because they had no money.  Literally the only money in the Greek economy apart from what the EU and the IMF was offering was cash on the streets and in the handbags and pockets of Greeks. 

 

The Greek government decided to tough it out and play hardball with the EU and the IMF in the spring and summer of 2015.  The EU and the IMF left them to their own devices.  What happened?  Greek businesses stopped taking credit card and debit card payments for fear the banks would not make good on the money.  People had to queue at the banks to withdraw a maximum of €60 a day - and that would have run out eventually.  Government payroll runs to pay their workers were delayed, sometimes by several weeks.

 

You have simply no ability to imagine what choices those people were facing - and you weren't facing them, so get off your high horse.

 

My point is not that the bailouts were "good" or "bad".  My point was that if the Greek governments had refused any one of them their economy and society would have imploded completely, with consequences far worse than what happened.

 

€80,000 per household.  That's not an opinion, it's a fact.

You should read up more.

There were alternatives to this.

But it was not in the interests of the German economy.

 

So please dismount from your tired old pit pony .

It's had enough.

The EU and it's austerity led economics is one step away from inflicting real harm and chaos.

It can never regulate the varied cultural and economic differences of Europe.

And I hope it never does as that's what makes it rich.

Not some Soviet style superstate.

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So .

The Greek bail outs were in fact a bail out of the foolish financial institutions who loaned .

The same financial institutions which foolishly gambled a continents wealth.

 

But the wonderful EU balanced the books for humanitarian reasons.

 

And not to protect the powerful.

 

Or am I on a high horse.

 

 

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