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Craig Levein: A Psychological Explanation


shaun.lawson

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shaun.lawson
5 minutes ago, Barack said:

You got a chart of actual goals from open play, to compare with the expected?

 

Regretfully no. I saw that chart on Twitter in early March, was shocked, and downloaded it. I'm searching for actual goals from open play stats at the mo, and not getting anywhere. :down: 

 

Incidentally, some other stats - but from early January, ie. at the winter shutdown. At that point, Hearts were also number 1 in the league for... most yellow cards, most red cards, most fouls, and fewest crosses. Dunno about now though. 

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shaun.lawson
10 hours ago, stuart500 said:

Was going to read the OP but realised I've got Christmas presents to buy

 

.... a bit disco: see above. :laugh: 

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...a bit disco
3 minutes ago, shaun.lawson said:

 

.... a bit disco: see above. :laugh: 

 

cat_whatchusay.gif?w=620

 

:biggrin:

 

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Eldar Hadzimehmedovic

Out of interest, how is "open play" defined? Obviously pens and direct freekicks are out, but what about headers from corners or freekicks? What if a corner is nodded down and then a goal scored by someone else?

 

Mind you, that xG chart is damning even without the open play goal numbers. 

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See that chart it is as representative of attacking football as fly in the air. Soooooooooooooooo if Hearts won five to nil by scoring from three penalties and direct two free kicks none of those goals would be on that chart and that would indicate that were are a none attacking side FFS get a grip and step away from your computer.

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Eldar Hadzimehmedovic
Just now, jock _turd said:

See that chart it is as representative of attacking football as fly in the air. Soooooooooooooooo if Hearts won five to nil by scoring from three penalties and direct two free kicks none of those goals would be on that chart and that would indicate that were are a none attacking side FFS get a grip and step away from your computer.

 

We've already established the chart isn't goals from open play, it's expected goals. 

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26 minutes ago, jock _turd said:

 

Sorry Bud but I am either misinterpreting or this statement is not totally factual and you are at it or not a Hearts fan. Cathro took over the team when they were second, although some like to say third or even fourth, in the division. In short  Robbie had the nouse to have that team that close to the top.... Cathro took over and the went down like they were carrying a bag of cement each!

Let’s not pretend that the wheels weren’t about to come off in regards to Neilson. 

 

There was a reason that a significant section of the support wanted him out.  It’s all hypothetical but I’d have bet you anything that Neilson wouldn’t have finished in such a high position come the end of the season.  That’s for another thread though I suppose. 

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1 minute ago, Morph said:

Let’s not pretend that the wheels weren’t about to come off in regards to Neilson. 

 

There was a reason that a significant section of the support wanted him out.  It’s all hypothetical but I’d have bet you anything that Neilson wouldn’t have finished in such a high position come the end of the season.  That’s for another thread though I suppose. 

 

Lets not pretend? That pure speculation on your part. :lol:

 

The folk that wanted him out were basically a few wee thick as **** bigots who were launched for misbehaving, a few more bigoted thick adults from Luckies who hired a plane, and a few general assorted arseholes from the other forum that you post on.

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Just now, Morph said:

Let’s not pretend that the wheels weren’t about to come off in regards to Neilson. 

 

There was a reason that a significant section of the support wanted him out.  It’s all hypothetical but I’d have bet you anything that Neilson wouldn’t have finished in such a high position come the end of the season.  That’s for another thread though I suppose. 

 

So did you contribute to the cost of the fly by ? How the F do you know the wheels were about to come off... HIS LAST GAME IN CHARGE IS A DEMOLITION OF RANGERS ... but you know the wheels are about to come off.. BOLT!

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1 minute ago, jock _turd said:

 

So did you contribute to the cost of the fly by ? How the F do you know the wheels were about to come off... HIS LAST GAME IN CHARGE IS A DEMOLITION OF RANGERS ... but you know the wheels are about to come off.. BOLT!

 

Of course he didn’t. He’s talking shite. :rofl:

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1 minute ago, jock _turd said:

 

So did you contribute to the cost of the fly by ? How the F do you know the wheels were about to come off... HIS LAST GAME IN CHARGE IS A DEMOLITION OF RANGERS ... but you know the wheels are about to come off.. BOLT!

 

There's very strong rumours circulating the inner sanctum of Scottish football that Mr R Neilson is set for a sensational return to Hearts in the next few weeks.....JKB server will melt!

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14 minutes ago, Eldar Hadzimehmedovic said:

 

We've already established the chart isn't goals from open play, it's expected goals. 

What the royal F are expected goals ??? We won the league championnes ... nah ye didnae we did on expected goal .GTF whit that crap!

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Eldar Hadzimehmedovic
1 minute ago, Rudy T said:

 

There's very strong rumours circulating the inner sanctum of Scottish football that Mr R Neilson is set for a sensational return to Hearts in the next few weeks.....JKB server will melt!

 

Not sure if you're at the wind-up or not but that wouldn't be the worst thing. If we can get back to how the model worked in 14/15 before we lost our way, and Robbie will have learned a lot at MK, then that might work well enough. 

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Eldar Hadzimehmedovic
1 minute ago, jock _turd said:

What the royal F are expected goals ??? We won the league championnes ... nah ye didnae we did on expected goal .GTF whit that crap!

?

 

Not a stats nerd then?

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Statistics.   Meh.

 

Bar graphs.    No bad.

 

Any pie charts?    Pie charts or gtf.

 

2/1  a pie chart before the next page.

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Just now, Victorian said:

Statistics.   Meh.

 

Bar graphs.    No bad.

 

Any pie charts?    Pie charts or gtf.

 

2/1  a pie chart before the next page.

Killie pie to have biggest win percentage. 

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Just now, Eldar Hadzimehmedovic said:

?

 

Not a stats nerd then?

 

 I do believe to some extent in stats having worked in pharma science you have to your job depends on them :laugh: and believe me I have crunch plenty of numbers through my life in science But honestly expected goals... nup no have any o that shoite

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6 minutes ago, Rudy T said:

 

There's very strong rumours circulating the inner sanctum of Scottish football that Mr R Neilson is set for a sensational return to Hearts in the next few weeks.....JKB server will melt!

 

Sadly I think Robbie leaving Hearts was the worst thing to happen to the club since we were revived... I really doubt he will return. Had he never left we would have been far more stable than we have been.

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55 minutes ago, shaun.lawson said:

 

The context is that we have a worse squad in terms of creativity than any others in the league? Worse than Partick Thistle? Worse than Ross County? Worse than Kilmarnock before they got a positive manager in who has worked wonders with them? Worse than the Hamilton Accies Javelin Throwing team?

 

Is this shit for real? And if, in the parallel universe which some seem to inhabit, it is... who was the Sporting Director who helped assemble this squad?

In terms of Stevie Clarke define positive please as it is not the football they play

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This just in Hearts win league on expected goals saved and mis calculation on expected goals scored  Brenda's no happy but CL says:bolt:

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...a bit disco
Just now, Victorian said:

20/1   a Levein / Budge oot / stay flowchart.

Get in!

 

Love a good flowchart.

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10 minutes ago, Eldar Hadzimehmedovic said:

 

Not sure if you're at the wind-up or not but that wouldn't be the worst thing. If we can get back to how the model worked in 14/15 before we lost our way, and Robbie will have learned a lot at MK, then that might work well enough. 

 

Straight up. Some senior players aware of the situation.

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Just now, ...a bit disco said:

Get in!

 

Love a good flowchart.

 

Ken.    Better than Snakes and Ladders.

 

Snakey and Budgers.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

:vrface:

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davemclaren
18 minutes ago, Rudy T said:

 

There's very strong rumours circulating the inner sanctum of Scottish football that Mr R Neilson is set for a sensational return to Hearts in the next few weeks.....JKB server will melt!

Jeez, I better check the dylithium crystals. ?

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Seymour M Hersh
4 minutes ago, davemclaren said:

Jeez, I better check the dylithium crystals. ?

 

I'd better go and check my Flux Capacitor and Mr Fusion Home Energy Reactor!! :mellow:

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...a bit disco

What larks!

 

Imagine the state of the Phoodleoot Brigade if true?

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Enzo Chiefo
1 hour ago, jock _turd said:

 

Sorry Bud but I am either misinterpreting or this statement is not totally factual and you are at it or not a Hearts fan. Cathro took over the team when they were second, although some like to say third or even fourth, in the division. In short  Robbie had the nouse to have that team that close to the top.... Cathro took over and the went down like they were carrying a bag of cement each!

3rd Jock. He took them over when we were 3rd. That's not up for debate. Robbie left us 2nd, we drew 2-2 at Ross County on the Sat and we dropped to 3rd. Cathro was appointed on the Tuesday.  Hope that clears it up.

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Just now, Enzo Chiefo said:

3rd Jock. He took them over when we were 3rd. That's not up for debate. Robbie left us 2nd, we drew 2-2 at Ross County on the Sat and we dropped to 3rd. Cathro was appointed on the Tuesday.  Hope that clears it up.

And wed played more games than our challengers so its all about perception. Fair to say 4th was where we were in terms of performance at that point

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Just now, ...a bit disco said:

What larks!

 

Imagine the state of the Phoodleoot Brigade if true?

 

I’d rather keep Levein, but must admit it might be worth it purely to see the reaction from certain gormless arsholes. :rofl:

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Enzo Chiefo
3 minutes ago, sadj said:

And wed played more games than our challengers so its all about perception. Fair to say 4th was where we were in terms of performance at that point

Yes I agree with that Sadj. I think the biggest problem with Cathro was his inability to actually communicate what his ideas were. 

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28 minutes ago, jock _turd said:

 

So did you contribute to the cost of the fly by ? How the F do you know the wheels were about to come off... HIS LAST GAME IN CHARGE IS A DEMOLITION OF RANGERS ... but you know the wheels are about to come off.. BOLT!

You are acting as if there were about 10 fans who were a bit disgruntled. 

 

There was a significant number of fans that started to turn on Neilson that season. Pumped out the cup to hibs early on, out of the league cup in the second round and pumped off some Maltese diddys. 

 

Left in a position where Cathro had to sign a whole bunch of players which I think they all turned out to be murder?

 

Neilson was fine for hearts and was incredible in his first season but I think there’s a reason we didn’t put much of a fight up when MK Dons came knocking for him. 

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davemclaren
Just now, Enzo Chiefo said:

Yes I agree with that Sadj. I think the biggest problem with Cathro was his inability to actually communicate what his ideas were. 

By all acounts he struggled to communicate with anyone. 

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Eldar Hadzimehmedovic
1 minute ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

Yes I agree with that Sadj. I think the biggest problem with Cathro was his inability to actually communicate what his ideas were. 

 

True dat. I think Cathro still has a lot to offer. He'd be a decent fit for an academy director or even an assistant. 

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5 minutes ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

Yes I agree with that Sadj. I think the biggest problem with Cathro was his inability to actually communicate what his ideas were. 

Hundred percent agree , the idealogy isnt bad but illfated in scottish football as we cant get the quality in to achieve his wants. However being so arrogant and a poor man manager is very much the starting point you dont want to have. You need players respect , you need to communicate your requirements effectively n manage them to achieve them. Thats no different to a normal walk of life. 

 

Not sure how id feel if RN returned as we had been turgid at times under him in the top flight. If it was with the caveat of lessons learnt CL makes the decisions and RN then picked the team from that and did his thing then maybe

 

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8 minutes ago, Eldar Hadzimehmedovic said:

 

True dat. I think Cathro still has a lot to offer. He'd be a decent fit for an academy director or even an assistant. 

Again very much this , maybe not yet but id not be surprised if he turned up with down the line is a very specific developmental role. Head coach unfortunately no. He still has respect and a good degree within the game.

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1 hour ago, shaun.lawson said:

 

 

Pardon?

 

Exactly what in what I set out in the OP was a 'myth'? Has he not gone through that extraordinary run of disappointments? Has he won anything as a manager or a player? 

 

Exactly what in him setting up as he did on Sunday was a 'myth'? Exactly what in our failure to win a single match from behind all season is a 'myth'? And exactly what about this graph from early March is a 'myth'?

 

DXiO34WWkAABOw5.jpg

 

At that point, Hearts, with the fourth biggest budget in the division, had the lowest expected number of goals from open play of any team in the entire league. 

 

Myth? Myth? No. It's fact. And before people say "but we haven't got the players to do anything else!", (1) Kilmarnock were bottom of the league before Clarke came in; (2) Hibs were in a lower division only last season; (3) Even the clubs in the bottom six have scored more goals from open play from us (as of early March, at least); (4) As Sporting Director, Levein had plenty of responsibility for the players who've been brought in. 

 

Watching us on Sunday was to watch a football match with our own eyes, and to be appalled at what we saw. Not because we lost, but because of how we approached the game. And how we approached the game was in line with how the manager approaches many away games; and also in line with our pathetic season in general. Negative, negative, negative - not the Hearts fans who rightly expect a whole lot better, but the manager himself.


We already know we are brittle away from home and the reasons for this were discussed, which you ignored as they don't fit whatever bizarre campaign you are running here which appears to be to portray Levein as a washed-up, serial loser so damaged from a lifetime of failure that he can't even put out an attacking team (or if he does, you have one hundred excuses and reasons to not give him any credit whatsoever).

Put the home records and our defensive record up for comparison too then and tell me he hasn't steadied the ship. We were never going to get a new manager bounce from bringing the DoF back into the hotseat but I would put good money on us finishing miles ahead of Kilmarnock next season and building upon the platform we will have in place - the football academy, the new hybrid pitch, the new stand (hopefully with the snagging elements completed), Budge's stewardship, increased turnover, the superb FoH backing...

He absolutely has a lot to prove, no question, and will have few excuses if he fails,  but this character assassination bullshit is just disingenuous nonsense from pseudo intellectuals who watched too many police dramas. I hope, quite frankly, he rams it up the lot of you.  

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18 minutes ago, sadj said:

And wed played more games than our challengers so its all about perception. Fair to say 4th was where we were in terms of performance at that point

 

Fair enough chaps but the fact is when he left Hearts were second top of the division we lost the next game and teams around us did not ... reshuffle but the points margin was tight. To say that based on that the wheels were about to fall off for Robbie is total speculation at best and nonsense in reality.

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portobellojambo1
52 minutes ago, Rudy T said:

 

There's very strong rumours circulating the inner sanctum of Scottish football that Mr R Neilson is set for a sensational return to Hearts in the next few weeks.....JKB server will melt!

 

 

Not what I've heard, I did hear something doing the rounds that he could end up at Rangers if Murty is dismissed. But there again stories do do the rounds I guess.

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3 minutes ago, jock _turd said:

 

Fair enough chaps but the fact is when he left Hearts were second top of the division we lost the next game and teams around us did not ... reshuffle but the points margin was tight. To say that based on that the wheels were about to fall off for Robbie is total speculation at best and nonsense in reality.

Im not saying that , just we had points in the bag but were 4th really as Rangers and Aberdeen had games in hand

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shaun.lawson
1 hour ago, Eldar Hadzimehmedovic said:

Out of interest, how is "open play" defined? Obviously pens and direct freekicks are out, but what about headers from corners or freekicks? What if a corner is nodded down and then a goal scored by someone else? 

 

From Opta: 

Pattern of play for Goals/Attempts

Set Piece goals/attempts are those where the ball starts from a dead ball situation such as a corner, a free kick, a penalty or a Throw-in and results in a shot before the phase of play has broken down into open play.

The exact point at which it becomes open play is usually clear but set pieces which are cleared and then the ball is put straight back into the penalty area are still deemed to be part of the set piece as the defending team is still positioned to deal with the set play.

 

52 minutes ago, Rudy T said:

 

There's very strong rumours circulating the inner sanctum of Scottish football that Mr R Neilson is set for a sensational return to Hearts in the next few weeks.....JKB server will melt!

 

Hope so. Would take him back happily. Top man is Robbie, excellent manager for us too.

 

3 minutes ago, Gizmo said:


this character assassination bullshit is just disingenuous nonsense... I hope, quite frankly, he rams it up the lot of you.  

 

It is not a 'character assassination'. I am not running a 'campaign' against him. You seem to have a real problem with someone holding a very different view to you on a football messageboard. Why are you so precious? 

 

Oh, and by the way: I hope he "rams it up the lot of us" too. I want Hearts to be successful. One of the most grotesque things we often see is when fans who criticise the manager or (as in the past) the owner, or even want them out, are accused of somehow not being fans. It's a disgrace.

 

Hearts are a big club with a big fanbase and many fans will see things very differently to you. Deal with it.

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18 minutes ago, Morph said:

Pumped out the cup to hibs early on,

 

No need to go any further this is the absolute essence of the whole problem with a percentage of the Hearts support... we got beaten by Hibs... and the current straff because we are behind Hibs. I will always want Hearts to gubb Hibs BUT I am not going to lynch the manager every time we are beaten by them.

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10 minutes ago, Gizmo said:


We already know we are brittle away from home and the reasons for this were discussed, which you ignored as they don't fit whatever bizarre campaign you are running here which appears to be to portray Levein as a washed-up, serial loser so damaged from a lifetime of failure that he can't even put out an attacking team (or if he does, you have one hundred excuses and reasons to not give him any credit whatsoever).

Put the home records and our defensive record up for comparison too then and tell me he hasn't steadied the ship. We were never going to get a new manager bounce from bringing the DoF back into the hotseat but I would put good money on us finishing miles ahead of Kilmarnock next season and building upon the platform we will have in place - the football academy, the new hybrid pitch, the new stand (hopefully with the snagging elements completed), Budge's stewardship, increased turnover, the superb FoH backing...

He absolutely has a lot to prove, no question, and will have few excuses if he fails,  but this character assassination bullshit is just disingenuous nonsense from pseudo intellectuals who watched too many police dramas. I hope, quite frankly, he rams it up the lot of you.  

Well thats put a smile on my face

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