Gards Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 I've looked at this pretty closely and as you can imagine there are numerous permutations however IF Scotland were to win the 3 matches and England beat Slovakia on Monday I would be very very confident that the 14 points (we lose the 6 against Malta) would see us into the play offs. Things have gone our way in many regards in the last round of fixtures and there could be more pivotal results over the next couple of days. Take Group A as one example. I think we can say with certainty France are going to win the group which leaves Sweden, Bulgaria and Holland fighting it out for 2nd place. Taking off the points that the 3 countries have won against Luxembourg they are on the following points with 3 games to play: Sweden 10pts Bulgaria 9pts Holland 4pts Sweden play Holland away and Belarus away. They also play Luxembourg away which won't count towards 2nd. Bulgaria play France at home and Holland away. They also play Luxembourg away which won't count towards 2nd. Holland play Bulgaria and Sweden at home and Belarus away. So Sweden could reach 16pts if they were to win in both Holland and Belarus which would beat Scotland but its probably unlikely. Bulgaria would have to beat France and Holland to beat our 14pts and thats hugely unlikely. Holland can only reach 13pts with 3 wins which falls short of our 14pts. Basically if Holland beat Bulgaria (tomorrow) and Sweden at home and Scotland win our 3 matches / England beat Slovakia we would definitely be in the play offs. This is just one example. Group H is actually looking really good. As long as Belgium don't lose to either Greece or Bosnia us getting 14pts would beat anyone finishing 2nd in that group. Thanks Hendricks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shaggy2 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Agree. Only downside is if Scotland, Slovakia and Slovenia all take points of each other then none of them will make play-offs eg if Scotland draw with both of them its game over for all of them except possibly Slovakia.Crazy, eh? At least we know we have three must wins in front of us. Think I'll have a fiver on us winning the next two and drawing in Slovenia, allowing Slovakia's 89th minute winner against Malta to pip us at the post. The Scottish way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hendricks Posted September 3, 2017 Author Share Posted September 3, 2017 Scotland really need to go for the jugular tomorrow night. 7 goals behind Slovakia in GD, there's every chance they'll lose by 2 or 3 against England, if we can give Malta another pumping and beat Slovakia, a draw could be enough in our final game. Whilst scoring goals and getting a better goal difference than Slovakia may in the event of us both finishing on 18pts be enough to see us 2nd it would highly likely mean nothing. The is because 12pts (we would lose the 6 against Malta) is likely not going to be enough to secure one of the 8 best runner up spots. We need at least 13pts to do that and we can't get 13pts! We can only get 14pts with 2 wins against Slovakia and Slovenia. Goal difference for the top 8 group runners up will not include the goals scored and lost against the bottom team, in our case Malta so hammering them whilst it may help our GD against Slovakia will make no difference against the other 2nd place finishers. Its clear that the only way we can make the play offs is by winning all 3 matches and hoping England do the business against Slovakia tomorrow. I'm confident having looked at the other groups we will squeeze into the play offs if those things happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neilnunb Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Holland score Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
milky_26 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Holland score was a propper goal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alicante jambo Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Bulgaria should have scored there.Off the post.Come on bulgaria Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neilnunb Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Pah. Sweden leading in Belarus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bazzas right boot Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Whilst scoring goals and getting a better goal difference than Slovakia may in the event of us both finishing on 18pts be enough to see us 2nd it would highly likely mean nothing. The is because 12pts (we would lose the 6 against Malta) is likely not going to be enough to secure one of the 8 best runner up spots. We need at least 13pts to do that and we can't get 13pts! We can only get 14pts with 2 wins against Slovakia and Slovenia. Goal difference for the top 8 group runners up will not include the goals scored and lost against the bottom team, in our case Malta so hammering them whilst it may help our GD against Slovakia will make no difference against the other 2nd place finishers. Its clear that the only way we can make the play offs is by winning all 3 matches and hoping England do the business against Slovakia tomorrow. I'm confident having looked at the other groups we will squeeze into the play offs if those things happen. I think you're right. Cue Scotland 1-malta 1. I think we can do it and it will be about beating Slovakia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
milky_26 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Pah. Sweden leading in Belarus. 2-0 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hendricks Posted September 3, 2017 Author Share Posted September 3, 2017 Pah. Sweden leading in Belarus. The good news is Sweden will need a result in Holland if we win our 3 games. Should Holland win that game no team in that group can better our points total if we win our remaining 3 matches and England beat Slovakia. Would be typical of us to do so and then have to sit through Holland v Sweden needing a home win 48hrs later..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy Marsh Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 There is no chance of Holland getting 2nd now. Sweden play Luxembourg next so will probably enhance their goal difference which is already +6 better than Holland. This means Holland have to beat Belarus away and then beat Sweden by about 5 goals. Not going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hendricks Posted September 3, 2017 Author Share Posted September 3, 2017 There is no chance of Holland getting 2nd now. Sweden play Luxembourg next so will probably enhance their goal difference which is already +6 better than Holland. This means Holland have to beat Belarus away and then beat Sweden by about 5 goals. Not going to happen. That makes no difference to Scotland. If Holland beat Sweden at home then no team in that group can beat our 14pts if we win our 3 matches. Basically we could be needing Holland to beat Sweden 48 hours after we complete our fixtures. There are several other groups in the mix too however. You have to remember that for the best runners up table the points and goal difference against the bottom side does not count! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy Marsh Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 That makes no difference to Scotland. If Holland beat Sweden at home then no team in that group can beat our 14pts if we win our 3 matches. Basically we could be needing Holland to beat Sweden 48 hours after we complete our fixtures. There are several other groups in the mix too however. You have to remember that for the best runners up table the points and goal difference against the bottom side does not count! Yeah I know that but was just stating that Holland wont be at the World Cup. Scotland just need to win the last 3 matches and it will be enough to secure a playoff. 14 points will be more than enough not to finish bottom of the 2nd placed teams. 99% sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riddley Walker Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Whilst scoring goals and getting a better goal difference than Slovakia may in the event of us both finishing on 18pts be enough to see us 2nd it would highly likely mean nothing. The is because 12pts (we would lose the 6 against Malta) is likely not going to be enough to secure one of the 8 best runner up spots. We need at least 13pts to do that and we can't get 13pts! We can only get 14pts with 2 wins against Slovakia and Slovenia. Goal difference for the top 8 group runners up will not include the goals scored and lost against the bottom team, in our case Malta so hammering them whilst it may help our GD against Slovakia will make no difference against the other 2nd place finishers. Its clear that the only way we can make the play offs is by winning all 3 matches and hoping England do the business against Slovakia tomorrow. I'm confident having looked at the other groups we will squeeze into the play offs if those things happen. I actually think you're mistaken this qualifying campaign. In previous years results against the bottom team didn't count because there was an imbalance of teams - meaning all groups had 6 teams and one or two had 5. This year, with Kosovo entering, each group now has 6 teams so there's no need to delete the results v bottom teams, as all groups are now symmetrical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hendricks Posted September 3, 2017 Author Share Posted September 3, 2017 Yeah I know that but was just stating that Holland wont be at the World Cup. Scotland just need to win the last 3 matches and it will be enough to secure a playoff. 14 points will be more than enough not to finish bottom of the 2nd placed teams. 99% sure. Good man! Yep they are looking goosed. Hopefully Dutch pride especially at home would still see them motivated for that game should we need it. I still think there are a couple of other groups that are very much in the mix; Greece and Bosnia / Rep Ireland and Wales / Montenegro and Denmark would be my predictions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hendricks Posted September 3, 2017 Author Share Posted September 3, 2017 I actually think you're mistaken this qualifying campaign. In previous years results against the bottom team didn't count because there was an imbalance of teams - meaning all groups had 6 teams and one or two had 5. This year, with Kosovo entering, each group now has 6 teams so there's no need to delete the results v bottom teams, as all groups are now symmetrical. Sorry bud but that's completely incorrect. Two groups have one less team so points against bottom side drops off the other groups. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_FIFA_World_Cup_qualification_(UEFA) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
milky_26 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Sorry bud but that's completely incorrect. Two groups have one less team so points against bottom side drops off the other groups. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_FIFA_World_Cup_qualification_(UEFA) you're both right and wrong, all groups now have the same number of teams but it is due to groups H and I both having one less teams when the dra was made, now gibraltar and kosovo are in so all groups have the same number. but uefa confirmed that the rule re dropping the results v bottom placed team would still happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy Marsh Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Sorry bud but that's completely incorrect. Two groups have one less team so points against bottom side drops off the other groups. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_FIFA_World_Cup_qualification_(UEFA) All groups have 6 mate but you are right that results against bottom side are void. I think its because the rules were in place before Kosovo were given UEFA license. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iain ferguson Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Greece v Belgium up next. Number 6 and starting for Greece - Tziolis! At least Belgium have been kind and Hazard starts on the bench. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riddley Walker Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 you're both right and wrong, all groups now have the same number of teams but it is due to groups H and I both having one less teams when the dra was made, now gibraltar and kosovo are in so all groups have the same number. but uefa confirmed that the rule re dropping the results v bottom placed team would still happen Ah ok, makes sense now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hendricks Posted September 3, 2017 Author Share Posted September 3, 2017 Greece v Belgium up next. Number 6 and starting for Greece - Tziolis! At least Belgium have been kind and Hazard starts on the bench. We want Belgium to beat both Greee and Bosnia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RudiHMFC Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 I'd take Greece in the play offs if it comes to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hendricks Posted September 3, 2017 Author Share Posted September 3, 2017 Fair play re the group sizes guys. Hasn't realized they'd made all groups into 6, just knew the results against bottom team fell off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riddley Walker Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 I'd take Greece in the play offs if it comes to it. Definitely take them, although I've a feeling they'd be unseeded along with us. Yeah I just presumed they'd scratched the bottom team thing, Kosovo joining the party at a later date passed me by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riddley Walker Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 It's ****ing bullshit that the play-offs are seeded, they've already seeded the groups, the play-offs should be a free for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hendricks Posted September 3, 2017 Author Share Posted September 3, 2017 It's ******* bullshit that the play-offs are seeded, they've already seeded the groups, the play-offs should be a free for all. Agreed. Got to ensure as best they can all the big guns make it! Dicks. I'd take Wales right now in a massive double header if given the chance. Rather them than Italy or Portugal that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riddley Walker Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Agreed. Got to ensure as best they can all the big guns make it! Dicks. I'd take Wales right now in a massive double header if given the chance. Rather them than Italy or Portugal that's for sure. Shit yeah, so Italy and Portugal are guaranteed to be seeds. And Wales if they finish 2nd. If we could get Wales or Serbia I'd fancy our chances. Or Iceland or Ukraine from the last group. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RudiHMFC Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Definitely take them, although I've a feeling they'd be unseeded along with us. Yeah I just presumed they'd scratched the bottom team thing, Kosovo joining the party at a later date passed me by. Surely they'd be seeded? They tend to qualify for tournaments, not really looked at who could all be in the play offs but I wouldn't shite it if we got them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riddley Walker Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Surely they'd be seeded? They tend to qualify for tournaments, not really looked at who could all be in the play offs but I wouldn't shite it if we got them. They've had an absolutely abysmal few years before this one, mind they got beat and drew with the Faroes in the last qualifiers. Think they finished bottom of rheir group. Just checked,they're 38th in last month's ranking so unlikely to be seeded with the other teams about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riddley Walker Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Looking at the groups again I'd actually give us an alright shot at any of the potential 2nd places apart from Portugal and Italy. Montenegro would be do-able. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RudiHMFC Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 They've had an absolutely abysmal few years before this one, mind they got beat and drew with the Faroes in the last qualifiers. Think they finished bottom of rheir group. Just checked,they're 38th in last month's ranking so unlikely to be seeded with the other teams about. Aye I remember they were absolutely terrible when Ranieri was the manager, guaranteed we'd get Italy or Portugal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tazio Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Red card for a Hungarian player. Hilariously for elbowing Pepe in the chops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iain ferguson Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Red card for a Hungarian player. Hilariously for elbowing Pepe in the chops. Nothing less than Pepe deserves every time he sets foot on a football pitch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Findlay Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Hungary v Portugal is a tasty encounter. Surprised it is still 0-0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riddley Walker Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Aye I remember they were absolutely terrible when Ranieri was the manager, guaranteed we'd get Italy or Portugal It's so obvious it's going to happen. We'll get a spirited 1-1 draw in the first leg at Hampden then get pumped 4-0 in Lisbon or Rome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tazio Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 France 0-0 against Luxembourg and Belgium being held 0-0 against Greece. So much for safe bets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tazio Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 And Belgium score and instantly concede. This acca is doomed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
milky_26 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 And Belgium score and instantly concede. This acca is doomed. 2-1 belgium now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceking5 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Luxemburg holding France and had a decent chance to win. Park the bus stuff Sent from my SM-A520F using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
graygo Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Luxemburg holding France and had a decent chance to win. Park the bus stuff Sent from my SM-A520F using Tapatalk 6-4-0? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
...a bit disco Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Feckin' French! Only ones currently letting my sixer down! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
...a bit disco Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 6-4-0? More like 8-2-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tazio Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Feckin' French! Only ones currently letting my sixer down! I hear you. I'm waiting them for a seven. I've cashed in and left half of it on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceking5 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 6-4-0?Don't know if there is that many in midfield Sent from my SM-A520F using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
...a bit disco Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 I hear you. I'm waiting them for a seven. I've cashed in and left half of it on. 100 to 1 on! Merde! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hendricks Posted September 3, 2017 Author Share Posted September 3, 2017 If Greece lose this game it will mean as long as Bosnia don't beat both Belgium and Estonia no team in this group can finish in 2nd place on 14pts which would mean that 3 wins for Scotland would be good enough to beat the points total of the 2nd in this group. Still need England to win tomorrow too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
...a bit disco Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Game over. Luxembourg steal a point of the French. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rudolf's Mate Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 40/1 it was for France to draw [emoji85] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Beni of Gorgie Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 The Rangers result was of course bad in Europe but Luxembourg really have improved as a whole club and country. Results not as humiliating as they once were. More proof tonight. Tziolis. Cathro I'm afraid probably made some decent players look ding. It's absurd to think otherwise for sanity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neilnunb Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Ref surely didn't fall for the French diving tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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