Understanding the North Korean nightmare.

[deesidejambo]

The war of words continue after Donald Trump say's that the US military are 'Locked & Loaded' against North Korea if Kim does anything 'Unwise'.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-40901746

 

Dangerous game being played here where neither man or country can now back down without losing face.

 

If North Korea carry out their plan of firing missiles towards Guam, America says it will act, so if North Korea don't now fire missiles towards Guam, Kim loses face, equally if the North does fire missiles towards Guam and America does nothing then it's Trump who loses face.

Trump should shut his pie hole and see if NK decides to self-destruct.

[Homme]

Even their most successful tests of their most advanced systems only hit the target about 50% of the time.

Thanks. Wasn't aware of how successful that tactic was.

[loveofthegame]

Thanks. Wasn't aware of how successful that tactic was.

 

I am completely ignorant of the technology... but a 50% success rate is pretty good... surely just fire multiple "stopping" missiles at the target and one of them will hit....

 

Probably hugely oversimplifying it!

[Jambo-Jimbo]

Trump should shut his pie hole and see if NK decides to self-destruct.

 

Not in his nature though, is it?

 

I hope Trump realises that this isn't some kind of Reality TV show, because there is every chance that something could get lost in translation when Trump tells Kim that 'Your Fired'.

[Ibrahim Tall]

Thanks. Wasn't aware of how successful that tactic was.

50% doesn't sound correct to be honest, the link previously posted listed test results of the various defence systems as;

 

"None of these systems is 100 per cent effective, and most have an iffy record in testing.

 

Aegis has succeeded in 35 out of 42 tests, while GMD has had only ten successes in 18 tests. However, THAAD has been successful in 18 out of 18 tests.

Tests are conducted in favourable conditions ? and it is reasonable to expect the success rates to be lower in actual combat use."

 

Worth also noting there's quite a few other factors involved, key being North Korea has a sketchy record at best when it comes to missiles. Whatever they shoot is as likely to blow up on the platform or just after take off as it is is to actually fly towards its target. It's also debabtle they can actually accurately target a destination or if it's eg just a vague 'Hawaii' destination rather than a specific city or base and they've also never actually flew a missile over further than the beginning of Japanese waters. Given the cost involved and only being in the testing phase it's also pretty debatable how many missiles they even have.

[deesidejambo]

50% doesn't sound correct to be honest, the link previously posted listed test results of the various defence systems as;

 

"None of these systems is 100 per cent effective, and most have an iffy record in testing.

 

Aegis has succeeded in 35 out of 42 tests, while GMD has had only ten successes in 18 tests. However, THAAD has been successful in 18 out of 18 tests.

Tests are conducted in favourable conditions ? and it is reasonable to expect the success rates to be lower in actual combat use."

 

Worth also noting there's quite a few other factors involved, key being North Korea has a sketchy record at best when it comes to missiles. Whatever they shoot is as likely to blow up on the platform or just after take off as it is is to actually fly towards its target. It's also debabtle they can actually accurately target a destination or if it's eg just a vague 'Hawaii' destination rather than a specific city or base and they've also never actually flew a missile over further than the beginning of Japanese waters. Given the cost involved and only being in the testing phase it's also pretty debatable how many missiles they even have.

Do they need missiles to target Seoul?  Wont good old fashioned artillery do the trick?

[Jambo-Jimbo]

Do they need missiles to target Seoul?  Wont good old fashioned artillery do the trick?

 

Yes, plenty of artillery pieces aimed at Seoul.

[Ibrahim Tall]

Do they need missiles to target Seoul?  Wont good old fashioned artillery do the trick?

It would, if they wanted to flatten Seoul though they'd have done it at any other point in her last 50 years. They've had more than enough artillery in place and already aimed in order to do it.

[Seymour M Hersh]

Trump should shut his pie hole and see if NK decides to self-destruct.

 

Well Bush, Clinton and Obama did much the same as Trump but in less colourful language. China is the key here and have done nothing over the decades to reign in their puppet because it suits them.

[deesidejambo]

Well Bush, Clinton and Obama did much the same as Trump but in less colourful language. China is the key here and have done nothing over the decades to reign in their puppet because it suits them.

But times are changing - a prosperous North Korea would open up massive trade opportunities for China.

[Ibrahim Tall]

But times are changing - a prosperous North Korea would open up massive trade opportunities for China.

North Korea already does, they can get plenty of raw materials and rare metals for pennies with no competition from the West , SK or Japan due to international sanctions. A 'prosperous' American leaning unified Korea isn't necessarily in China's interest, particularly if it's bases remain.

[elvoys]

I'm no expert by any means but I wasn't under the impression the UK navy was even close to second best?

The new carrier at Rosyth is a beast of a bygone age. I believe it is all for show to hammer home this exact point. Would be good to know what Chinas navy is like.

[Jambo-Jimbo]

North Korea already does, they can get plenty of raw materials and rare metals for pennies with no competition from the West , SK or Japan due to international sanctions. A 'prosperous' American leaning unified Korea isn't necessarily in China's interest, particularly if it's bases remain.

 

The very thought of American troops stationed anywhere near the Chinese border is something which is completely unpalatable to the Chinese.

 

The current 'buffer zone' that is known as North Korea is something the Chinese want to preserve at all costs, not just because of the prospect of US troops on it's border, but also the humanitarian disaster which would swamp China if the North Korean regime collapsed, however the actions of North Korea are rapidly forcing China to make a choice concerning it's continued support for the Kim regime.

 

The ultimate win win for China is to have a peaceful stable and maybe even a prosperous North Korea who would still be loyal to China and still act as a 'buffer zone' with American allies in the South.

 

China may be forced into regime change in North Korea, either that or it may have to endure the most unpalatable of situations and have American Troops stationed on it's borders.

[Cade]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People%27s_Liberation_Army_Navy

[Seymour M Hersh]

But times are changing - a prosperous North Korea would open up massive trade opportunities for China.

 

I'm not sure where NK are showing any signs of changing for the better. Polar opposite as far as I can tell. Clinton met with the previous dictator back in 2009 although he achieved nothing I can't imagine the odd looking grandson even entertaining a meeting with say Obama.

[Seymour M Hersh]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People%27s_Liberation_Army_Navy

 

What about the quality of the equipment and standard of training of the personnel? Or does wikipedia not tell you that?

 

I seem to remember the same sort of warnings being rolled out in 91 when we went up against Iraq? 

[Cade]

What about the quality of the equipment and standard of training of the personnel? Or does wikipedia not tell you that?

 

I seem to remember the same sort of warnings being rolled out in 91 when we went up against Iraq? 

Equipment is mainly centred around coastal defence and island hopping but they're undergoing a serious modernisation programme involving deep water fleets. 2 aircraft carriers have been completed (one of them a re-fitted ex-soviet ship) and modern destroyers are being produced as fast as they can build them.

The chinese navy is regarded as being the 2nd most powerful in the world by experts, but still years behind the yanks.

[Thunderstruck]

Mattis is key in all of this, he knows that the pressure is greatest on the Chinese as the last thing that they need is instability on their borders. The real target of the bellicose statements is Beijing.

 

The status quo suits China, it does not want a reunified Korea, it does not want the probable millions of refugees fleeing conflict, it does not want increased US presence and it does not need Japan having an excuse for military expansion.

 

Kim cannot survive without the tacit support of Beijing and the recent Chinese backing of sanctions is evidence of his leash being tugged.

[AlimOzturk]

Hope we don't get involved in this pish.

 

War..in this day in age

 

[michael_bolton]

They tested the air raid sirens in Seoul about an hour ago. It was just a drill, but nobody in the meeting I was in knew anything about it. 

 

Deeply concerning couple of minutes. Forty five seconds to get underground, apparently. 

[Rab87]

They tested the air raid sirens in Seoul about an hour ago. It was just a drill, but nobody in the meeting I was in knew anything about it. 

 

Deeply concerning couple of minutes. Forty five seconds to get underground, apparently. 

Scary stuff indeed.

 

Are there a lot of shelters in Seoul yeah?  I would presume so, but 45 seconds is not a lot of time really....

 

How often are the drills?

[Ibrahim Tall]

They tested the air raid sirens in Seoul about an hour ago. It was just a drill, but nobody in the meeting I was in knew anything about it.

 

Deeply concerning couple of minutes. Forty five seconds to get underground, apparently.

45 seconds?! Hard luck if you're above the 2nd floor anywhere.

[Norm]

45 seconds?! Hard luck if you're above the 2nd floor anywhere.

If I was hearing air raid sirens, I'd still fancy my bloody chances!

[Ray Gin]

45 seconds to get underground. Good luck with that.

 

[John Findlay]

Man has yet to invent a weapon he has NOT used.

[Unknown user]

The very thought of American troops stationed anywhere near the Chinese border is something which is completely unpalatable to the Chinese.

 

The current 'buffer zone' that is known as North Korea is something the Chinese want to preserve at all costs, not just because of the prospect of US troops on it's border, but also the humanitarian disaster which would swamp China if the North Korean regime collapsed, however the actions of North Korea are rapidly forcing China to make a choice concerning it's continued support for the Kim regime.

 

The ultimate win win for China is to have a peaceful stable and maybe even a prosperous North Korea who would still be loyal to China and still act as a 'buffer zone' with American allies in the South.

 

China may be forced into regime change in North Korea, either that or it may have to endure the most unpalatable of situations and have American Troops stationed on it's borders.

While I basically agree, we should remember that they did put up with US troops in Afghanistan. I know the situations and perceived threats are very different of course, but it's worth noting that China has allowed one of it's buffers to be messed with in recent years.

[Boris]

Man has yet to invent a weapon he has NOT used.

 

Neutron Bomb?

 

Has that been used yet?

[Jambo-Jimbo]

While I basically agree, we should remember that they did put up with US troops in Afghanistan. I know the situations and perceived threats are very different of course, but it's worth noting that China has allowed one of it's buffers to be messed with in recent years.

 

Huge difference between the two, I'd say, and would explain why the Chinese weren't too concerned by US troops in Afghanistan.

 

The Chinese-Afghan border is only 47 miles long with only a few passes in which to cross the border as it is situated in a mountainous region close to the Hindu Kush mountain range, and is easily defendable.

 

The Chinese-North Korea border on the other hand is nearly 900 miles long with hundreds of places in which to cross, utter nightmare to try and defend.

[Unknown user]

Huge difference between the two, I'd say, and would explain why the Chinese weren't too concerned by US troops in Afghanistan.

 

The Chinese-Afghan border is only 47 miles long with only a few passes in which to cross the border as it is situated in a mountainous region close to the Hindu Kush mountain range, and is easily defendable.

 

The Chinese-North Korea border on the other hand is nearly 900 miles long with hundreds of places in which to cross, utter nightmare to try and defend.

Yeah, pretty much my provisos

[michael_bolton]

Scary stuff indeed.

 

Are there a lot of shelters in Seoul yeah?  I would presume so, but 45 seconds is not a lot of time really....

 

How often are the drills?

 

45 seconds?! Hard luck if you're above the 2nd floor anywhere.

 

I've been here six months. First drill I've noticed. That's why it was so concerning.

 

The advice is to shelter in underground stations. Seoul underground is huge, there are stations all over the place, but 45 seconds is obviously unrealistic if you're not near a station.

 

It would have taken me at least five minutes today. Probably more due to the general panic and rush that would ensure. Best bet to just go for it and hope for the best.

 

It was one of the strangest moments of my life. One guy just interrupted someone in the middle of talking and said "That's the missile siren". Thought it was actually happening. A surreal few moments. All back to normal though.

[Jambo, Goodbye]

They tested the air raid sirens in Seoul about an hour ago. It was just a drill, but nobody in the meeting I was in knew anything about it.

 

Deeply concerning couple of minutes. Forty five seconds to get underground, apparently.

They did this in my school. I think the drill was nation wide. No subways nearby so it's just a routine walk out to the playing fields.

 

I suspect it's all part of the annual UFG exercises that are being carried out right now.

 

I've also yet to meet a Korean who is genuinely given a **** about NK.

 

But listening to what people think about the whole situation over here gives a better insight than the media are portraying.

[michael_bolton]

They did this in my school. I think the drill was nation wide. No subways nearby so it's just a routine walk out to the playing fields.

 

I suspect it's all part of the annual UFG exercises that are being carried out right now.

 

I've also yet to meet a Korean who is genuinely given a **** about NK.

 

But listening to what people think about the whole situation over here gives a better insight than the media are portraying.

 

I'd say there's very little concern here in general. Perhaps at a political level, it's hard to say.

 

But day to day, Koreans don't seem fussed at all. It hardly ever comes up in conversation.

 

The city is normal. People out in bars, eating in restaurants, shopping, waiting for buses etc.

 

I think it's gone on for so long that most of them just don't care.

[Cruyff Turn]

Neutron Bomb?

 

Has that been used yet?

I don't know, but judge for yourself..

[Ibrahim Tall]

I'd say there's very little concern here in general. Perhaps at a political level, it's hard to say.

 

But day to day, Koreans don't seem fussed at all. It hardly ever comes up in conversation.

 

The city is normal. People out in bars, eating in restaurants, shopping, waiting for buses etc.

 

I think it's gone on for so long that most of them just don't care.

Tbh, given what you say about time limits there isn't a great deal anyone could do anyway if the worst happens. Particularly in Seoul. With that degree of inevitability you probably wouldn't waste time worrying or even thinking about it after a while.

Anyone I've met in Japan tended to have the same outlook on earthquakes or Tsunamis. It barely registered despite the risk.

[Seymour M Hersh]

Neutron Bomb?

 

Has that been used yet?

 

Only Olivia in Grease!! 

[GorgieMIlls]

Playing devils advocate for a second

 

Imagine North Korea was the nuclear power and said to America you can't have them would the yanks accept that and the North Koreans doing army training exercises within spitting distance of LA

 

I'm guessing the answer to both is no, so as mental as NK is, I can see their point

[Space Mackerel]

I don't know, but judge for yourself..

That looks like a load of petrol or something combustible going up along with high explosive.

[AlimOzturk]

Playing devils advocate for a second

 

Imagine North Korea was the nuclear power and said to America you can't have them would the yanks accept that and the North Koreans doing army training exercises within spitting distance of LA

 

I'm guessing the answer to both is no, so as mental as NK is, I can see their point

Its not just America though who say they can't have them.

[Boris]

Only Olivia in Grease!! 

 

[GorgieMIlls]

Its not just America though who say they can't have them.

 

 

Yeah, but all those countries have them themselves (Britain, France, China, Russia)

 

Why do they have a right to dictate who can and can't have them when they sit on them themselves

[deesidejambo]

Yeah, but all those countries have them themselves (Britain, France, China, Russia)

 

Why do they have a right to dictate who can and can't have them when they sit on them themselves

Its Japan, South Korea, and the whole of the SE Asian countries who dont want a nuclear armed North Korea.   They do not have nuclear weapons themselves.

[Unknown user]

Its Japan, South Korea, and the whole of the SE Asian countries who dont want a nuclear armed North Korea. They do not have nuclear weapons themselves.

I reckon most of the planet doesn't want that mental ****er to get the bomb to be fair!

[AlimOzturk]

Yeah, but all those countries have them themselves (Britain, France, China, Russia)

 

Why do they have a right to dictate who can and can't have them when they sit on them themselves

Well, I think the fact North Korea have a ****ing Looney in charge of them kind of answers that question.

 

And yes I realise so do America and Russia but they pale I'm comparison and also happen to have a historical reason for having Nukes.

 

North Korea are just attempting to be confrontational.

[The Real Maroonblood]

Playing devils advocate for a second

Imagine North Korea was the nuclear power and said to America you can't have them would the yanks accept that and the North Koreans doing army training exercises within spitting distance of LA

I'm guessing the answer to both is no, so as mental as NK is, I can see their point

The guy's a lunatic and the one in North Korea is about as mad as him.

[AlphonseCapone]

Yeah, but all those countries have them themselves (Britain, France, China, Russia)

 

Why do they have a right to dictate who can and can't have them when they sit on them themselves

Those countries got them at a time when countries were stocking up on them.

 

Most countries have agreed to at least consider reducing the numbers they have and as part of that nuclear disarmament process, no other country is meant to try and develop them.

[Governor Tarkin]

I'm no expert by any means but I wasn't under the impression the UK navy was even close to second best?

Not anymore it isn't.

[Seymour M Hersh]

Playing devils advocate for a second

 

Imagine North Korea was the nuclear power and said to America you can't have them would the yanks accept that and the North Koreans doing army training exercises within spitting distance of LA

 

I'm guessing the answer to both is no, so as mental as NK is, I can see their point

 

And who are the North Korean allies within spitting distance of LA? 

[Homme]

And who are the North Korean allies within spitting distance of LA?

Venezuela?

 

I say that having no clue about their current approach / opinions of the US so accept my apologies if I'm wrong.

[Seymour M Hersh]

Venezuela?

 

I say that having no clue about their current approach / opinions of the US so accept my apologies if I'm wrong.

 

You're not wrong about the Venezuelan government being ant- US and possibly even aligned to NK but spitting distance from LA? Miami possibly.

[John Findlay]

I'm no expert by any means but I wasn't under the impression the UK navy was even close to second best?

There was a time when I would have said the Royal Navy was the best and most professional navy in the world, regardless of the size. Speaking of size although the largest navy in the world the US are far from the best/most professional in the world. They have always relied on their technology more than their people and when their technology fails and it does their people are not upto the mark. Although the Royal Navy has technology too. It never forgot to train it's people to the highest standard. Although we lost ships in the Falklands Warwickshire I am personally convinced we would have lost more if it had not been for the high calibre of training and professionalism we had instilled into us.

 

Whether this is true or not I have no idea but the story went like this. A US destroyer and a British destroyer happened upon each other one morning during WWII. The American offered the following as a greeting via flashing lights. Good morning limey how are you from the world's largest navy?

The reply was. Not bad yank. How are you from the world's best?