Drewboy Posted February 19, 2017 Share Posted February 19, 2017 Found this article from The Backpass Rule Wordpress site. Thoughts? Introducing Expected Assists to Scottish Football: Sinclair, Tavernier, and Cowie Stir their Team?s Drink The idea of ?expected assists? (or xA for short) has been in football for awhile now. However, like most statistical innovations in football, it has yet to be publicly available forSinclair.jpg Scottish football. This was incredibly frustrating for me, as there were players that clearly contributing to their team?s attack but it was not showing in something like expected goals since they were not necessarily shooting as much as other players. Expected assists helps to quantify this. Similar to its more famous cousin expected goals, expected assists quantifies chance quality, but it counts the quality of the pass that led to a shot. As football stats guru Michael Caley states, ?Of course, assists can mislead. A player might get lucky a few times that he happened to make the pass before his teammate took an incredible shot. To be confident that a player with big assist numbers is in fact pulling the strings requires a bit more statistical evidence.? Also like xG to goals, xA is a better measure of a player?s passing ability than regular assists are. An important part of thinking about football stats is considering if it makes sense in the sense of the game. A pass is still a great pass whether the person shooting is able to finish the shot for a goal or send it into Row Z while falling on their butt and becoming a viral video. Expected assists counts all of these passes and what type of shot they lead to, regardless of whether that conclusion is a goal or not. Expected assists is the stat that can give us that insight into those string pullers for a club, but up until now information on who was providing the passes that your favorite team?s crap striker was missing was unavailable publicly for Scottish football. Recently though, the allcowie around good looking folks at Stratabet have provided me with the data necessary to start calculating xA for the SPFL Premiership. Along with providing me data, I have been a subscriber to Stratabet?s weekly emails for awhile now. While I cannot use their betting tips since ?Making America Great Again? apparently does not include repealing archaic gambling laws, their emails have had plenty of interesting stats related articles on topics such as free kicks, finishing skill, and more that if you are interesting in stats in football will more than tickle your fancy. Using my expected goals model and the data Stratabet has provided me, I can now include xA in my weekly stats updates and leaders in the SPFL Premiership. Having to come up with the xA stats for the previous 20+ games in the league has been a bit time consuming, but I have been able to get the numbers done for the Top 4 in the SPFL table thus far. As I?m sure we all expected, the player with the highest xA on either Celtic, Aberdeen, Rangers, and Hearts is?Don Cowie?!?!? Ok, so maybe he is not the high profile name some would expect to be on top of the league in xA. Yet, Cowie has played the highest number of minutes in the league for Hearts, who have the highest goals scored and xG for by any club not named Celtic in Scotland. Can you imagine how many assists Cowie would have if he didn?t have to pass it to Tony Watt and Connor Sammon for much of the year?! Rounding out the players with the 10 best xA totals thus far from Celtic, Aberdeen, Rangers and Hearts (and perhaps you could assume they would be the top 10 of the league given the gulf between the top and bottom of the SPFL Premiership, but you know what they say about assuming) we see James Tavernier, Scott Sinclair, Jamie Walker, Niall McGinn, Johnny Hayes, Stuart Armstrong, Leigh Griffiths, James Maddison, and Barrie McKay. If we combine both xG and xA, we can see just which players among the top 4 are offering the most for their side on the attack. While fans and pundits alike have deservingly praised Moussa Dembele for his incredible form this season, Scott Sinclair has the highest xG+xA total among the top 4 of the SPFL so far this season. Sinclair has both set up his teammates and scoring goals on his own for Celtic, leading in both xG+xA as well as the top goal scorer in the league and joint top assists. Dembele may be the subject of mega-money transfer deals, but you could make a very convincing argument that it is Scott Sinclair who has been Celtic?s best player as they have run away with the SPFL title this season. Can we spare a thought for James Tavernier at Rangers this season? There has certainly been a lot going on at Ibrox in the past few weeks. If you do not bring into account the whole Mark Warburton saga over the past few days, Tavernier seems to be the forgotten man behind ??6,000,000 man? Barrie McKay. However, Tavernier has the 2nd highest xAtavernier in the league, the 6th highest xG+xA in the league and highest at Rangers. Before the season it seemed that Tavernier would be the Rangers player destined for a high transfer fee, but that seemingly has been forgotten. Amongst the circus at Ibrox this year, Tavernier has been putting together another solid season for Rangers. He only has 1 goal and 2 assists, but has had to create much of the Rangers attack this season. His assists totals are not helped by the lack of talent Rangers have had at striker. If Tavernier had a more clinical striker (like say, oh Liam Boyce), his assist numbers would be higher. Once I finish going through all the old matches, I will have xA and xG+xA leaders for the SPFL up with the rest of the stats. Thanks again to Stratabet for providing me with this data. This has been something I wanted to bring to SPFL supporters for awhile and they made it happen. I also have some plans for some more fun things to do with the data they are providing me. https://thebackpassrule.wordpress.com/2017/02/16/introducing-expected-assists-to-scottish-football-sinclair-tavernier-and-cowie-stir-their-teams-drink/ Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fraggle1990 Posted February 19, 2017 Share Posted February 19, 2017 He's like an older Jason Holt, doesn't offer enough going forward(assists and goals) and doesn't cut the mustard defensively(breaking up play, covering centre halves) Just an engine on him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rudi must stay Posted February 19, 2017 Share Posted February 19, 2017 He's like an older Jason Holt, doesn't offer enough going forward(assists and goals) and doesn't cut the mustard defensively(breaking up play, covering centre halves) Just an engine on him. He is inconsistent due to his age. But he's shown he's a big game player, definitely underrated by the fans Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drewboy Posted February 19, 2017 Author Share Posted February 19, 2017 He's like an older Jason Holt, doesn't offer enough going forward(assists and goals) and doesn't cut the mustard defensively(breaking up play, covering centre halves) Just an engine on him. I take it you didn't read the article! "As I?m sure we all expected, the player with the highest xA on either Celtic, Aberdeen, Rangers, and Hearts is?Don Cowie?!?!?" Expected assists are where a pass is played that should have resulted in a goal! Offers plenty going forward and the most expected assists! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gambo Posted February 19, 2017 Share Posted February 19, 2017 A good player for us when played in a central role, a waste out wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kila Posted February 19, 2017 Share Posted February 19, 2017 Underrated and underappreciated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morgan Posted February 19, 2017 Share Posted February 19, 2017 There is many a good/great player over the years that is not noticed. This could be indicative of a 'behind the scenes' type player From what I have seen, Don Cowie fits that bill. Seems like if he's not a Suarez/Messi/Ronaldo type he's not good enough for the Hearts. We are the second best team in Scotland (although I always think we are the best) but, honestly, no world beaters. He's good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
siegementality Posted February 19, 2017 Share Posted February 19, 2017 I'd have him in the team before Kitchen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
since.1902 Posted February 19, 2017 Share Posted February 19, 2017 The best game (half, cos he was moved at half time) was the hibs replay last year. He doesn't play the same position 2 games in a row either which I don't think helps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soonbe110 Posted February 19, 2017 Share Posted February 19, 2017 I'd have him in the team before Kitchen.Hopefully Cathro agrees with you on Wednesday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Debut 4 Posted February 19, 2017 Share Posted February 19, 2017 Na, another 1 in 5 man. We need better quality to replace him next season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
letsalldothebeattie Posted February 19, 2017 Share Posted February 19, 2017 Really like Cowie as a player. Offers us a lot going forward when played centrally. I assume when he's wide it's to give more cover for full back as he isn't really cut out for a winger. Hope he is fully fit for Wednesday as we need him in the middle of the park Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellion Posted February 19, 2017 Share Posted February 19, 2017 A good player for us when played in a central role, a waste out wide. This for me too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davemclaren Posted February 19, 2017 Share Posted February 19, 2017 A good player for us when played in a central role, a waste out wide. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bridge of Djoum Posted February 19, 2017 Share Posted February 19, 2017 He's like an older Jason Holt, doesn't offer enough going forward(assists and goals) and doesn't cut the mustard defensively(breaking up play, covering centre halves) Just an engine on him. Either didn't read or didn't understand the article. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oh ah grantona Posted February 19, 2017 Share Posted February 19, 2017 Not better than djoum or Tizolis the only 2 players that should be in central midfield. Wednesday must be 2 out & out wingers with 2 strikers Wingers being walker & Choualy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
karipidis Posted February 19, 2017 Share Posted February 19, 2017 There is many a good/great player over the years that is not noticed. This could be indicative of a 'behind the scenes' type player From what I have seen, Don Cowie fits that bill. Seems like if he's not a Suarez/Messi/Ronaldo type he's not good enough for the Hearts. We are the second best team in Scotland (although I always think we are the best) but, honestly, no world beaters. He's good. We are the 3rd best team. Aberdeen are quite clearly the 2nd best team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spencer Posted February 19, 2017 Share Posted February 19, 2017 We are the 3rd best team. Aberdeen are quite clearly the 2nd best team. But we're fourth with St Johnstone in our rear view mirror Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morgan Posted February 19, 2017 Share Posted February 19, 2017 But we're fourth with St Johnstone in our rear view mirror Rear view mirror. Apparently they have them on trains now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fraggle1990 Posted February 19, 2017 Share Posted February 19, 2017 I take it you didn't read the article! "As I?m sure we all expected, the player with the highest xA on either Celtic, Aberdeen, Rangers, and Hearts is?Don Cowie?!?!?" Expected assists are where a pass is played that should have resulted in a goal! Offers plenty going forward and the most expected assists! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Expected goals? What a pile of shite. Who os judging whether it should be a goal or not? Mystic meg? Or some dick statto? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bridge of Djoum Posted February 19, 2017 Share Posted February 19, 2017 Rear view mirror. Apparently they have them on trains now. Coming soon on planes too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drewboy Posted February 19, 2017 Author Share Posted February 19, 2017 Expected goals? What a pile of shite. Who os judging whether it should be a goal or not? Mystic meg? Or some dick statto?[emoji1] calm doon mate. I think they call it football analysis. There's loads of "Dick stattos" on here but I'm guessing it's someone like Austin McPhee, that kind of "Dick statto" [emoji4] Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheOak88 Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 Cowie drifts in and out of games a bit too much for my liking. A good squad player to have but not convinced he is what we need to be finishing 2nd in this league . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ycj Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 1 in every 10 he plays a good game, a waste of a jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
queensferryjambo Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 Great player when played in the middle. Great engine and a very intelligent player. Shame his goal at Ibrox was unfairly disallowed - made amends against The Rangers at Tynecastle. Very much underrated by our support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bazzas right boot Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 Decent player, however not as good as Djoum or tzolis and not as useful as kitchen. Bit of a jack of all trades, but not good enough to be an attacking midfielder and not disciplined or strong enough to be a defensive midfielder, and imo not intelligent or technically good enough to be a influential midfielder. However, Rarely has a bad day, gives 100% and if playing must be in the middle, waste of space out wide. Not good enough if we want to catch Aberdeen tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bazzas right boot Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 People debating if we are the 2nd, 3rd or 4 th best team.... If only there was some concrete way of measuring this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A.C. Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 Not better than djoum or Tizolis the only 2 players that should be in central midfield. Wednesday must be 2 out & out wingers with 2 strikers Wingers being walker & Choualy I'm glad you aren't the manager. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oh ah grantona Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 I'm glad you aren't the manager. You must not like winning much ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
been here before Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 Found this article from The Backpass Rule Wordpress site. Thoughts? Introducing Expected Assists to Scottish Football: Gave up reading at that. "Expected assists" fir **** sake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beast Boy Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 He's like an older Jason Holt, doesn't offer enough going forward(assists and goals) and doesn't cut the mustard defensively(breaking up play, covering centre halves) Just an engine on him. Completely at odds with the article. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mr fox Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 He's like an older Jason Holt, doesn't offer enough going forward(assists and goals) and doesn't cut the mustard defensively(breaking up play, covering centre halves) Just an engine on him. Read think then post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A_A wehatethehibs Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 For those who think this type of thing is codswallop / lies damned statistics This type of stat xA is a drop in the ocean compared to the types of stats being used by macphee and cathro to influence our training, signings and our team selection, and by CL and the football division to develop young players. The entire club is in the middle of revolutionising the way we train and develop players and teams, towards a data driven model. They have been doing it at the top level for years... When using their laptops, they don't just watch videos and read jkb like you and me, they will be using advanced performance, training and match analysis software which requires the type of intellect Kris Boyd cannot dream of. A far cry from "Get up thae sand dunes lads" As for Cowie, underrated is right, and inconsistent is also right. For me he is a player we should be using sparingly, in 15-20 games a season, where he can have most impact and more time for the legs to recover. He frequently has his anonymous games 1 week after a big performance (See his performances vs rangers, hibs for example), to me it indicates that his legs are just starting to creak that little bit more. Having been rested at the weekend I expect he will feature on Wednesday, potentially as a sub and I expect a good performance from him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McCrae Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 when fit should start every week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
been here before Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 For those who think this type of thing is codswallop / lies damned statistics Or just mind numbingly boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Statto Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 He's like an older Jason Holt, doesn't offer enough going forward(assists and goals) and doesn't cut the mustard defensively(breaking up play, covering centre halves) Just an engine on him. Only Jonny Hayes has more assists in the Scottish Premiership than Don Cowie this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TurboT Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 I'm glad you aren't the manager. My thoughts exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maroonnicky63 Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 Cowie drifts in and out of games a bit too much for my liking. A good squad player to have but not convinced he is what we need to be finishing 2nd in this league . you actually think we will finish 2nd ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dallas Green Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 People don't see his usefulness to the team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King prawn Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 I don't think Cowie's legs at an older age are the problem. He seems to play a different position/role every time he plays which would be a greater cause for erratic performances imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maroonnicky63 Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 My thoughts exactly mines to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cruzabic Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 Apparently he is the fittest in the team from tests they done in pre season. My opinion if it is we should be building a league challenging team (within reason) and Don just doesn't fit into that unfortunately. As stated earlier in this thread he offers little in terms of goals, assists and break up play. In comparison we had skacel playing there in 2006 and that's what someone in that position can be offering us. I do actually like him as a player, never gives up and tries his socks off which in turn does give him MOTM performances (he was mine against rangers) but not enough to ever take us anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Brightside Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 Found this article from The Backpass Rule Wordpress site. Thoughts? Introducing Expected Assists to Scottish Football: Sinclair, Tavernier, and Cowie Stir their Team?s Drink The idea of ?expected assists? (or xA for short) has been in football for awhile now. However, like most statistical innovations in football, it has yet to be publicly available forSinclair.jpg Scottish football. This was incredibly frustrating for me, as there were players that clearly contributing to their team?s attack but it was not showing in something like expected goals since they were not necessarily shooting as much as other players. Expected assists helps to quantify this. Similar to its more famous cousin expected goals, expected assists quantifies chance quality, but it counts the quality of the pass that led to a shot. As football stats guru Michael Caley states, ?Of course, assists can mislead. A player might get lucky a few times that he happened to make the pass before his teammate took an incredible shot. To be confident that a player with big assist numbers is in fact pulling the strings requires a bit more statistical evidence.? Also like xG to goals, xA is a better measure of a player?s passing ability than regular assists are. An important part of thinking about football stats is considering if it makes sense in the sense of the game. A pass is still a great pass whether the person shooting is able to finish the shot for a goal or send it into Row Z while falling on their butt and becoming a viral video. Expected assists counts all of these passes and what type of shot they lead to, regardless of whether that conclusion is a goal or not. Expected assists is the stat that can give us that insight into those string pullers for a club, but up until now information on who was providing the passes that your favorite team?s crap striker was missing was unavailable publicly for Scottish football. Recently though, the allcowie around good looking folks at Stratabet have provided me with the data necessary to start calculating xA for the SPFL Premiership. Along with providing me data, I have been a subscriber to Stratabet?s weekly emails for awhile now. While I cannot use their betting tips since ?Making America Great Again? apparently does not include repealing archaic gambling laws, their emails have had plenty of interesting stats related articles on topics such as free kicks, finishing skill, and more that if you are interesting in stats in football will more than tickle your fancy. Using my expected goals model and the data Stratabet has provided me, I can now include xA in my weekly stats updates and leaders in the SPFL Premiership. Having to come up with the xA stats for the previous 20+ games in the league has been a bit time consuming, but I have been able to get the numbers done for the Top 4 in the SPFL table thus far. As I?m sure we all expected, the player with the highest xA on either Celtic, Aberdeen, Rangers, and Hearts is?Don Cowie?!?!? Ok, so maybe he is not the high profile name some would expect to be on top of the league in xA. Yet, Cowie has played the highest number of minutes in the league for Hearts, who have the highest goals scored and xG for by any club not named Celtic in Scotland. Can you imagine how many assists Cowie would have if he didn?t have to pass it to Tony Watt and Connor Sammon for much of the year?! Rounding out the players with the 10 best xA totals thus far from Celtic, Aberdeen, Rangers and Hearts (and perhaps you could assume they would be the top 10 of the league given the gulf between the top and bottom of the SPFL Premiership, but you know what they say about assuming) we see James Tavernier, Scott Sinclair, Jamie Walker, Niall McGinn, Johnny Hayes, Stuart Armstrong, Leigh Griffiths, James Maddison, and Barrie McKay. If we combine both xG and xA, we can see just which players among the top 4 are offering the most for their side on the attack. While fans and pundits alike have deservingly praised Moussa Dembele for his incredible form this season, Scott Sinclair has the highest xG+xA total among the top 4 of the SPFL so far this season. Sinclair has both set up his teammates and scoring goals on his own for Celtic, leading in both xG+xA as well as the top goal scorer in the league and joint top assists. Dembele may be the subject of mega-money transfer deals, but you could make a very convincing argument that it is Scott Sinclair who has been Celtic?s best player as they have run away with the SPFL title this season. Can we spare a thought for James Tavernier at Rangers this season? There has certainly been a lot going on at Ibrox in the past few weeks. If you do not bring into account the whole Mark Warburton saga over the past few days, Tavernier seems to be the forgotten man behind ??6,000,000 man? Barrie McKay. However, Tavernier has the 2nd highest xAtavernier in the league, the 6th highest xG+xA in the league and highest at Rangers. Before the season it seemed that Tavernier would be the Rangers player destined for a high transfer fee, but that seemingly has been forgotten. Amongst the circus at Ibrox this year, Tavernier has been putting together another solid season for Rangers. He only has 1 goal and 2 assists, but has had to create much of the Rangers attack this season. His assists totals are not helped by the lack of talent Rangers have had at striker. If Tavernier had a more clinical striker (like say, oh Liam Boyce), his assist numbers would be higher. Once I finish going through all the old matches, I will have xA and xG+xA leaders for the SPFL up with the rest of the stats. Thanks again to Stratabet for providing me with this data. This has been something I wanted to bring to SPFL supporters for awhile and they made it happen. I also have some plans for some more fun things to do with the data they are providing me. https://thebackpassrule.wordpress.com/2017/02/16/introducing-expected-assists-to-scottish-football-sinclair-tavernier-and-cowie-stir-their-teams-drink/ Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Really interesting article and the expected assist stat is probably more useful than pass completion. I assume people who are saying Don Cowie doesn't create chances have not read the article. 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McCrae Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 Apparently he is the fittest in the team from tests they done in pre season. My opinion if it is we should be building a league challenging team (within reason) and Don just doesn't fit into that unfortunately. As stated earlier in this thread he offers little in terms of goals, assists and break up play. In comparison we had skacel playing there in 2006 and that's what someone in that position can be offering us. I do actually like him as a player, never gives up and tries his socks off which in turn does give him MOTM performances (he was mine against rangers) but not enough to ever take us anywhere. I reckon he probably is one of our top players when it comes to assists this year.... could be wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ferryjambo99 Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 I reckon he probably is one of our top players when it comes to assists this year.... could be wrong though. Earlier poster said only Hayes has more assists in the league this season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beast Boy Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 Lot of people haven't read the article. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanishTam10 Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 Lot of people haven't read the article. dumb before the facts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cruzabic Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 I reckon he probably is one of our top players when it comes to assists this year.... could be wrong though. That is interesting, however I would say that could also be because he is our set piece taker when on field and takes corners etc. But I will stand corrected on the assist front. dumb before the facts. Don't need to read the facts to have an opinion on the player. If people don't think he's good enough that's their call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Just joe Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 Good player for us . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlasgoJambo Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 Thanks for posting The direction analysis and stats are going is really interesting. Don Cowie clearly has the talent, I wonder what the statisticians have deduced is the reason why he doesn't dominate games as much as you feel he's capable of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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