******The Official EUROPEAN ( merged ) Thread******

[Statto]

Barring a miraculous run of results, Heart of Midlothian have qualified for next season's UEFA Europa League. We need 1 point to secure entry to the Europa League 1st qualifying round and can still enter the 2nd qualifying round if we finish ahead of Aberdeen in 2nd and Celtic win the Scottish Cup.

 

The 1st and 2nd qualifying round draw will take place on Monday, June 20th.

 

The 1st round - 1st leg will be played on Thursday, June 30th, the 2nd leg on July 7th.

 

The 2nd round - 1st leg will be one week later on July 14th and the 2nd leg on July 21st.

 

 

I've been researching the first 2 qualifying rounds to determine whether or not we will be seeded for the draws. 

 

We will definitely be seeded for the Europa League 1st qualifying round!!!

 

As for the 2nd qualifying round, there will be a total of 66 teams in this round, 17 entering directly and 49 from QR1. In order for Hearts to be seeded in this round, there can be no more than 32 teams ranked above us. 15 will definitely be ranked above us so there can be only 17 more. There is a total of 28 teams that could enter this round that would be ranked above us. We need 11 of the following 28 to go our way to be seeded for the 2nd qualifying round.

 

In association order;

 

 

Greece

Panionios to finish 4th in the 4 team European Play off. No games played yet.

 

Czech Republic

Slavia Prague, Zbrojovka Brno or Slovacko to finish 4th if Jablonec win the Cup or 5th if Jablonec do not win the cup. They'll probably not win the cup so 5th will be what we're looking for. Slavia 5th, 5 pts behind 4th with 6 to play.

 

Romania

Viitorul Constanta or Targu Mures to finish 4th if Cluj or Targu Mures wins the Cup, or 5th if Steaua or Dinamo Bucharest wins the Cup and finish top-4. Viitorul currently 5th, Targu Mures 6th, 4 games left, 4th 5 clear + a game in hand. Steaua or Dinamo to win the Cup is our best option, facing each other in the SF so one will be in the final.

 

Austria

Admira to not win the Cup either finish 2nd/3rd (Currently 4th) or finish 4th and either Austria Vienna or Red Bull Salzburg wins the Cup.

 

Croatia

Lokomotiva to either finish top-3 (Currently 4th) or finish 4th and Belupo don't win the Cup.

 

Poland [x2]

[1] Legia Warsaw to win the league, currently top by 1 point, 7 games to go.

[2] Lech Poznan to not win the Cup AND they must finish outside the top-4, currently 6th, 1 point behind 3rd-5th, 7 games to go.

 

Israel [x2]

[1] Maccabi Tel Aviv to win the league, currently 2nd, 2 points behind + 1 game in hand, 6 games to go.

[2] Maccabi Haifa to not win the Cup AND they must finish outside the top-3 or if Maccabi Tel Aviv win the Cup, they must finish outside the top-4, currently 5th, 3 points behind 4th, with 6 games to go.

 

Denmark [x2]

[1] SonderjyskE to finish 2nd/3rd or 4th if the Cup winner finishes top-3.

[2] Aarhus to win the Cup.

 

Scotland [x2]

[1] Celtic to win the league, currently 1st, 8 clear, 5 games to go.

[2] Motherwell to finish outside the top-4 if Celtic wins the Cup.

 

Sweden

BK Hacken to win the Cup. They're in the final v Malmo.

 

Bulgaria

Ludogorets to win the league, currently top, 11 points clear + 1 game in hand, 7 games to go.

 

Serbia [3]

[1] Red Star or Partizan to win the league.

[2] If Red Star win the league, Partizan to not win the Cup AND finish outside the top-3 or if Partizan win the league, Red Star to finish outside the top-3 or top4 if Partizan win the Cup.

[3] Vojvodina to finish outside the top-3 or top-4 if Partizan win the Cup and finished top-3.

 

Slovenia

Maribor to win the league, currently 2nd, 2 points behind with 7 games to go.

 

Azerbaijan [x2]

[1] Qarabag to win the league, currently top, 13 points clear with 7 games to go, 2nd has a game in hand.

[2] Neftchi Baku to not win the cup AND finish outside the top-4 or the top-5 if Qarabag or Gabala win the Cup and finish top-4. Currently 7th, 7 points behind 5th with 8 games to go.

 

Slovakia [x2]

[1] Slovan Bratislava to win the league, currently 2nd, 9 points behind with 7 games to go.

[2] Spartak Trnava to finish outside the top-3 or the top-4 if the Cup Winner finishes top-3.

 

Hungary [x2]

[1] Debrecen to not win the Cup AND finish outside the top-3 or the top-4 if the Cup Winner finishes top-3, 3rd with 4 to go.

[2] Videoton to finish outside the top-3 or the top-4 if the Cup Winner finishes top-3, 5th with 4 to go.

 

Moldova

Sheriff Tiraspol to win the league, currently 2nd, 3 points behind with 6 games to go.

 

Albania

Skenderbeu Korce to win the league, currently top, 5 points clear with 7 games to go.

 

2015/16 Champions League or Europa League

We need the winner or either of these competitions to qualify for next season's Europa League through their domestic league. In the CL, only Wolfsburg and Man City haven't already qualified for next season's CL. We'd need;

Wolfsburg to win CL (2-0 up in CL QF) and either finish 5th/6th or 7th if German Cup winners qualify for CL. 5pts behind 6th and 7th with 5 games to go.

or

Man City to win CL (2-2 in CL QF) and finish outside the top-4, 4 points ahead with 6 games to go.

or one of the following from the Europa League;

Braga to win the EL (1-2 down in EL QF) and finish 4th-6th. Currently 4th, 10 points behind 3rd with 5 games to go.

Shaktar to win the EL (2-1 up in EL QF) and finish outside the top-2. Currently 2nd, 12 points ahead of 3rd with 5 games to go.

Villarreal to win the EL (2-1 up in EL QF) and finish outside the top-4. Currently 4th, 8 points ahead of 5th with 6 games to go.

Sparta Prague to win the EL (1-2 down in EL QF) and finish outside the top-2. Currently 2nd, 7 points ahead of 3rd + 1 game in hand with 6 games to go.

Bilbao to win the EL (1-2 down in EL QF) and finish 5th/6th or 7th if Barca win the Cup or Sevilla win the Cup and finish in the top-6. Currently 6th.

Sevilla to win the EL (2-1 up in EL QF) and either finish 5th-7th or win the Cup. Currently 7th, 7 points ahead of 8th with 6 games to go.

Liverpool to win the EL (1-1 in EL QF) and finish top-6. Currently 8th, 4 points behind 6th + 1 game in hand with 6 games to go, or 7th if Man Utd/West Ham win the Cup and finish top-6.

If any one of the above happens, a Cypriot team ranked above us will enter a round later.

 

The access list for the UEFA Champions League and UEFA Europa League can be altered depending on who wins this current season's CL and EL. Both winners are now guaranteed entry into the following season's Champions League. The Europa League access list will only be altered if one or both of this season's CL and EL winners qualify for next season's Europa League via their domestic performance.

The way this works is the 2 Cup Winners from the 2 highest associations in QR1 (Serbia and Slovenia) are moved to QR2 and then the Cup Winner from the highest association from QR2 (Cyprus) is moved to QR3 etc. up until the round that the CL/EL winner would have been entered. If both CL and EL winner qualify for the Europa League through domestic performance, I'd guess that it would just be the next 2 that would also move, so Azerbaijan and Slovakia from QR1 to QR2 and Poland from QR2 to QR3 etc.

This would benefit us in terms of QR2, as a Cypriot team would be moved from QR2 to QR3 and all Cypriot teams that can qualify for the Europa League are ranked above Hearts. Depending on which Polish team takes their 1st Europa League berth, it may or may not benefit us having both CL and EL winners being Europa League qualifiers.

 

 

 

So, to summarise, we need at least 11 of the above bolded things to happen to be seeded in ELQR2.

 

 

 

Once we've determined whether or not we will be seeded in the 2nd qualifying round, we can start looking at potential opponents for the first 2 rounds and where we will be travelling to in the summer.

 

 

[We_are_the_Hearts]

Well done mate, this thread was very informative last time.

[Homme]

Missed these threads. Was actually going to ask you two or three weeks ago if you would be doing one!

[Buffalo Bill]

Thread needs more research and insight

[letsalldothebeattie]

Can't wait to welcome European football back to Tynie and hopefully get one or two away days too

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[The Tackle]

This is a very informative thread. Well impressed.

[AbiolaDauda]

Very impressive work - thanks!  Do you have a feel of how likely it is for 11+ of these things to happen?  Some of them seem quite likely.  If you were a betting man, would you think we'll get a seeded spot for round 2?

[1rousset]

Can't wait to welcome European football back to Tynie and hopefully get one or two away days too

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Aye much as Liverpool and Spurs were good days out I'm looking a bit further afield this season.

[AbiolaDauda]

If we finish second, and Celtic win the Scottish Cup, then we go directly into the 2nd qualifying round.  Is there an argument that it'd actually be better for us to finish third?! 

 

The extra double-header against an unseeded team in round 1 could be good:

- Good preparation for round 2, especially if we have new players who need time to gel

- Extra away match for the Jambo Army

- Money from the extra home game might be enough to offset money lost by finishing 3rd instead of 2nd?

 

This is all on the proviso that we would actually win Round 1 of course!

[KineticBeat]

Seeing this thread start before its mathematically confirmed has part of me worried haha. 

 

But seriously, very informative, thank you. Can't wait to start the European adventure.

[letsalldothebeattie]

Aye much as Liverpool and Spurs were good days out I'm looking a bit further afield this season.

Same. Spurs was a cracking trip but somewhere warm would be even better. Or even Ireland would be a decent trip

[michael_bolton]

Magnificent OP. I'm going to re-read that. Great stuff.

[BM1874]

Unless ive.missed it, Red Star are about 25 clear of Partizan so thats one done.

 

Im a bit unsure what I want, Part of me wants to enter r1 and be at home first leg (i go on holiday friday 1st July) but depending on how the draw goes if we get drawn to the arse end of europe (albana armenia kazakhstan etc, it will cost the club an absolute fortune to charter a flight, and due to short turnaround any application for a visa would be tight for any fans.

 

Ideally a team.from.gibraltar/san marino for an easy round 1 tie.

 

For me, best would be Lech Poznan in 2nd round, 1st leg away, as i'll be in Poznan then.

 

Cant wait for the european ties to return

[Italian Lambretta]

Away to a team in Northern Ireland on the 14th July would be handy

[Son Of Anarchy]

Still got a hangover from Prague love to go back and see all those police alsations again

[westbow]

Would quite like a small team that we could give a right tanking. Get the season off on a flier.

[Bazzas right boot]

Easiest teams possible.

 

Welsh or Irish team would be good.

 

Great thread, btw.

[rubyruby]

Would quite like a small team that we could give a right tanking. Get the season off on a flier.

Liverpool then....fancy another crack at them.

[Hartleys_Jam_Tart]

Unless ive.missed it, Red Star are about 25 clear of Partizan so thats one done.

 

Im a bit unsure what I want, Part of me wants to enter r1 and be at home first leg (i go on holiday friday 1st July) but depending on how the draw goes if we get drawn to the arse end of europe (albana armenia kazakhstan etc, it will cost the club an absolute fortune to charter a flight, and due to short turnaround any application for a visa would be tight for any fans.

 

Ideally a team.from.gibraltar/san marino for an easy round 1 tie.

 

For me, best would be Lech Poznan in 2nd round, 1st leg away, as i'll be in Poznan then.

 

Cant wait for the european ties to return

 

I'd love Poznan. Cracking city

[Clerry Jambo]

Cheers Statto, a thread that will run and run with no bickering.......mibbe!!

[Statto]

Very impressive work - thanks!  Do you have a feel of how likely it is for 11+ of these things to happen?  Some of them seem quite likely.  If you were a betting man, would you think we'll get a seeded spot for round 2?

 

It will be close, there's a few almost definites, like Red Star, Celtic, Qarabag, Ludogorets, this brings it down to 7/24 required. I'd say around 75% probability we're seeded.

[August Landmesser]

Fantastic OP, going to sit down with a cuppa and re-read it when I get out of the office!

[kila]

Thanks for that! Can't wait for the draw.

[Riddley Walker]

Nice work Statto. Cannot wait for the 20th June.

[Hearts Heritage]

Hearts of all the Scottish teams have a genuinely mediocre European record in the true sense of the word.

 

Generally over 2 legs we usually lose to opponents we are meant to and likewise beat teams we are meant to.

 

We've never suffered a humiliating loss in a tie to a minnow.

 

But by the same token we've never beaten a 'Big Name' over the two legs. (Lokomotiv, Vienna and Braga our 3 best 2 leg wins).

2 wonderful 1st leg results against Bayern and Bordeaux. A great group result in Basle.

[Michael_Jackson]

Great thread. Approx how much is getting to the group stage worth to the club?

[Heartsfc_1874]

West Ham anyone ??

[Hearts Heritage]

Great thread. Approx how much is getting to the group stage worth to the club?

unlikely we'll get there. Not seeded in the latter qualifying rounds we will need a big slice of luck to draw somebody beatable. Though we did do it v Braga [emoji2]

[Fxxx the SPFL]

West Ham anyone ??

Not unless we win the SPFL I think the hammers might squeeze into fourth

[Michael_Jackson]

unlikely we'll get there. Not seeded in the latter qualifying rounds we will need a big slice of luck to draw somebody beatable. Though we did do it v Braga [emoji2]

Understood. However this time a few years ago we were collecting coppers in a tub for the club. Considering the upwards trajectory anything is possible.

[CavySlaveJambo]

Not unless we win the SPFL I think the hammers might squeeze into fourth

If Liverpool win the EL then West Ham will drop into the Europa League

[Stephen Muddie]

Any chance of you doing a Championship 2016/17 Possibilities thread for our vermin interlopers?

[Brandt]

Wish i had the OP's confidence.

[Gorgie_Rules]

Incredible research that, thanks

 

Am I right in saying that the seeded team isn't guaranteed to be at home the 2nd leg? Makes it a pain when trying to book time of work if that is the case because basically need to take a wednesday, thursday, friday off for 4 weeks in a row at the busiest holiday period, when only going to be using 1, or potentially 2 of those dates

[Bazzas right boot]

If Liverpool win the EL then West Ham will drop into the Europa League

Pretty sure that's not the case now, England would have 5 teams in it.

 

Anyway, if not west ham, one of the Manchester clubs would do!

[Yoda]

Hearts of all the Scottish teams have a genuinely mediocre European record in the true sense of the word.

 

Generally over 2 legs we usually lose to opponents we are meant to and likewise beat teams we are meant to.

 

We've never suffered a humiliating loss in a tie to a minnow.

 

But by the same token we've never beaten a 'Big Name' over the two legs. (Lokomotiv, Vienna and Braga our 3 best 2 leg wins).

2 wonderful 1st leg results against Bayern and Bordeaux. A great group result in Basle.

you forgot a good result at home against Stuggart.  Almost winning the tie.

[Cade]

Great thread. Approx how much is getting to the group stage worth to the club?

• First qualifying round: ?200,000
• Second qualifying round: ?210,000
• Third qualifying round: ?220,000
• Play-off round elimination: ?230,000
• Base fee for group stage: ?2,400,000
• Group match victory: ?360,000
• Group match draw: ?120,000
• Group winners: ?500,000
• Group runners-up: ?250,000

[Yoda]

Double post

[19/5HMFC12]

Pretty sure that's not the case now, England would have 5 teams in it.

 

Anyway, if not west ham, one of the Manchester clubs would do!

Was thinking that. Because say Man city finished 6th and West Ham 4th, but Man city won the CL and Liverpool won the EL, then if England still only got 4 teams it would mean that only 1st and 2nd would get a spot. Don't think that's the case as I think it's just a completely new spot for Europa league winners. Probably a spot taken at the expense of a league like our own. But then again, probably rightly so.

[19/5HMFC12]

Hearts of all the Scottish teams have a genuinely mediocre European record in the true sense of the word.

 

Generally over 2 legs we usually lose to opponents we are meant to and likewise beat teams we are meant to.

 

We've never suffered a humiliating loss in a tie to a minnow.

 

But by the same token we've never beaten a 'Big Name' over the two legs. (Lokomotiv, Vienna and Braga our 3 best 2 leg wins).

2 wonderful 1st leg results against Bayern and Bordeaux. A great group result in Basle.

I'd say a 1-1 draw at Anfield against a Liverpool team with Gerrard and Suarez in it is a fairly decent result. Albeit not great for the outcome of the tie.

[dc-jambo]

West Ham anyone ??

 

be a good outing for the West Ham-Hearts woolly hat I bought 25 years ago

[Joe Hearts]

Some piece of work by the OP, hats off.

[MacDonald Jardine]

I'd say a 1-1 draw at Anfield against a Liverpool team with Gerrard and Suarez in it is a fairly decent result. Albeit not great for the outcome of the tie.

I think that's the point.

We've never really won ties, as opposed to individual matches, that we weren't expected to or at least had a decent chance in.

 

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[davie1980]

Everyone always wants to start further into the competition.

 

As much as I'd love to topple Aberdeen to reach 2nd (I really really would)

From a European perspective, I've always liked entering the Uefa in as early a round as possible.

 

One thing I've always said bout us in Europe is we are reliable, we can be depended on to beat the minnows and not slip on those potential banana skins and will more often than not, get gubbed when we step up.

 

We don't do the Viktoria Zizkov, Artmedia Bratislava, Maribor and Inirea Urziceni style shambles' they way the Old firm do or the inter-tattie embarrassments of our dear neighbours 

 

And Equally, we can't be expected to get a result against Barca, as Celtic might, beat the mighty Real Madrid like Aberdeen (and Hibs of course   ) or go on a run to the Europa league final.

(1989 being the exception, cheers Iain)

 

But certainly in fairly recent history, we beat the Siroki Brijegs, Paksis and FK Zeljeznicars and get beaten fairly soundly when expected to.

 

I like the early rounds, give us a team I've never heard of so I have some european victory to celebrate

[Fxxx the SPFL]

 

• First qualifying round: ?200,000
• Second qualifying round: ?210,000
• Third qualifying round: ?220,000
• Play-off round elimination: ?230,000
• Base fee for group stage: ?2,400,000
• Group match victory: ?360,000
• Group match draw: ?120,000
• Group winners: ?500,000
• Group runners-up: ?250,000

That's some serious dosh for reaching the group stages. You could pocket ?4m just for reaching the groups and winning a couple of matches in the section.

[Hearts Heritage]

you forgot a good result at home against Stuggart.  Almost winning the tie.

 

I'd say a 1-1 draw at Anfield against a Liverpool team with Gerrard and Suarez in it is a fairly decent result. Albeit not great for the outcome of the tie.

 

Was thinking of good first leg results rather than glorious failures in leg 2

 

Red Star falling into both as well

[Homme]

Would be nice to actually travel out of the British Isles after two games v Epl teams.

[Midloth_Iain]

some of the preliminary 1st round qualifiers (subject to usual Uefa amendment)

 

Finland - HJK 

Belarus - Dinamo Minsk 

Sweden - AIK 

Kazakhstan - Aktobe 

Belarus - Shakhtyor Soligorsk

Sweden - IFK G?teborg 

Latvia - Ventspils 

Iceland - KR 

Norway - Odd

Kazakhstan - Kairat 

Republic of Ireland - Shamrock Rovers 

Republic of Ireland - St Patrick's Athletic 

Norway - Stab?k 

Estonia - Levadia Tallinn 

Estonia - N?mme Kalju 

Iceland - Brei?ablik 

Kazakhstan - Ordabasy 

Latvia - Skonto 

Faroe Islands - HB 

Faroe Islands - V?kingur G?ta 

Finland - RoPS 

Iceland  -Valur 

Finland - IFK Mariehamn 

Lithuania - Atlantas 

Faroe Islands - NS? Runav?k 

Lithuania - Trakai  (and a certain Devidas Cesnauskis)

Republic of Ireland - Cork City 

[Morgan]

The best!

 

Cheers mate.

[Brandt]

 

• First qualifying round: ?200,000
• Second qualifying round: ?210,000
• Third qualifying round: ?220,000
• Play-off round elimination: ?230,000
• Base fee for group stage: ?2,400,000
• Group match victory: ?360,000
• Group match draw: ?120,000
• Group winners: ?500,000
• Group runners-up: ?250,000

Thats quite dreamy.