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#1 JamboX2

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Posted 24 January 2016 - 09:47 am

I've not seen a thread for this and couldn't find one, but I have been reading into the coming race for the White House over the past few months and think it's incredible both Bush and Rubio are being pushed out for Trump in the Republican Party and the Democrats seem to be ditching Clinton for Sanders.

Any US based Jambos have any views on this?

Who would win in a Trump v Sanders election?

#2 Peebo

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Posted 24 January 2016 - 11:11 am

Trump has absolutely no chance of winning the presidency. Zero.

#3 jake

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Posted 24 January 2016 - 11:17 am

Trump has absolutely no chance of winning the presidency. Zero.



Hope you are right

#4 MrRobbo10

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Posted 24 January 2016 - 11:21 am

#feelthebern

Worried he'd die in office though

#5 JamboX2

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Posted 24 January 2016 - 11:44 am

Trump has absolutely no chance of winning the presidency. Zero.


Obviously I'd hope he doesn't win. However, is there an increased chance should Sanders pip Clinton to the nomination?

Would Sanders, a confessed Democratic Socialist, have any hope against Trump in a one on one election?

I would hope so. However,beyond the east coast and west coast states which generally are a bit more liberal, do the Democrats stand much chance?

#6 Cade

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Posted 24 January 2016 - 12:02 pm

If Sanders wins the Democratic nomination and Trump wins the Republican nomintation, Trump would win the election.

 

Neither of those things is going to happen.



#7 NewYorkJambo

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Posted 24 January 2016 - 02:56 pm

Trump has absolutely no chance of winning the presidency. Zero.

 

I don't know.I was saying that for a long time but if Sanders is the opponent he may! Scary.

 

I see the news were reporting yesterday that if it's Trump v Sanders then Bloomberg may stand as an independent, investing up to $1billion of his own money, as he feels Trump would beat Sanders.



#8 Ugly American

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Posted 24 January 2016 - 03:12 pm

If Sanders wins the Democratic nomination and Trump wins the Republican nomintation, Trump would win the election.

 

Neither of those things is going to happen.

 

I disagree with this, at least with the certainty.  I think I would narrowly favor Sanders in that case, but that's the scenario I think Bloomberg would most likely jump into, and the only one in which he might win.

 

I've been predicting for months that by the end of February you're going to see one of the establishment candidates (Bush, Christie, Rubio, or Kasich) break from the pack and then nearly every elected Republican in the country will get behind that person and push.  Whether or not that's enough to overcome the Trump/Cruz fiasco remains to be seen.

 

Of all the candidates on both sides, the one with the highest likelihood of being the next President is Clinton, and it's a long way to second place.



#9 AlphonseCapone

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Posted 24 January 2016 - 03:26 pm

I disagree with this, at least with the certainty. I think I would narrowly favor Sanders in that case, but that's the scenario I think Bloomberg would most likely jump into, and the only one in which he might win.

I've been predicting for months that by the end of February you're going to see one of the establishment candidates (Bush, Christie, Rubio, or Kasich) break from the pack and then nearly every elected Republican in the country will get behind that person and push. Whether or not that's enough to overcome the Trump/Cruz fiasco remains to be seen.

Of all the candidates on both sides, the one with the highest likelihood of being the next President is Clinton, and it's a long way to second place.


The BBC had an article yesterday and it said the sooner the establishment figures sort out which one of them should run alone and the others drop out the better.

#10 Arse 'Friends' Dyslexic?

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Posted 24 January 2016 - 03:43 pm

Donald Trump as POTUS?

 

71bae2b5-33f0-4481-b142-a1107e19119b_zps



#11 The Frenchman Returns

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Posted 24 January 2016 - 06:58 pm

I disagree with this, at least with the certainty.  I think I would narrowly favor Sanders in that case, but that's the scenario I think Bloomberg would most likely jump into, and the only one in which he might win.

 

I've been predicting for months that by the end of February you're going to see one of the establishment candidates (Bush, Christie, Rubio, or Kasich) break from the pack and then nearly every elected Republican in the country will get behind that person and push.  Whether or not that's enough to overcome the Trump/Cruz fiasco remains to be seen.

 

Of all the candidates on both sides, the one with the highest likelihood of being the next President is Clinton, and it's a long way to second place.

(No great knowledge of US politics)

 

Is Clinton a shoe in for the Democratic ticket?



#12 JamboX2

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Posted 24 January 2016 - 07:12 pm

I disagree with this, at least with the certainty. I think I would narrowly favor Sanders in that case, but that's the scenario I think Bloomberg would most likely jump into, and the only one in which he might win.

I've been predicting for months that by the end of February you're going to see one of the establishment candidates (Bush, Christie, Rubio, or Kasich) break from the pack and then nearly every elected Republican in the country will get behind that person and push. Whether or not that's enough to overcome the Trump/Cruz fiasco remains to be seen.

Of all the candidates on both sides, the one with the highest likelihood of being the next President is Clinton, and it's a long way to second place.


The Third Party Candidate idea is an interesting one in that scenario.

Bloomberg would be able to fund himself to the tune of multi-millions and would be able to buy the press and media coverage needed to push the candidates.

However, is there not a massive risk of moderate voters being split between Sanders and Bloomberg and Trump slipping into the white house on the back of it?

#13 BigC

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Posted 24 January 2016 - 11:44 pm

(No great knowledge of US politics)

Is Clinton a shoe in for the Democratic ticket?


She was but her only real opponent has been surging in the polls and some had him ahead in the first two states that vote.

She's still a 1/5 with the bookies (or was a few days ago) but there is a bit of momentum behind Bernie Sanders.

UA's summary was bang on IMO. The republicans really need to figure out who to back against Trump...

#14 Rab

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Posted 25 January 2016 - 12:51 am

The Third Party Candidate idea is an interesting one in that scenario.

Bloomberg would be able to fund himself to the tune of multi-millions and would be able to buy the press and media coverage needed to push the candidates.

However, is there not a massive risk of moderate voters being split between Sanders and Bloomberg and Trump slipping into the white house on the back of it?

 

Ross Perot had just as many resources, if not more, and got 19% of the vote but won zero states. Bloomberg is a very different candidate, but it goes to show you need more than just money.

 

As for splitting the vote, who knows? There's a chance Trump and Cruz could split the crazy vote and let in a more mainstream candidate for the Republican nomination.  This election really is bananas, you can't imagine it's going to keep going the way it is, both Trump and Sanders are pretty much unelectable.



#15 Eldar Hadzimehmedovic

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Posted 25 January 2016 - 01:46 am

Ross Perot had just as many resources, if not more, and got 19% of the vote but won zero states. Bloomberg is a very different candidate, but it goes to show you need more than just money.

 

As for splitting the vote, who knows? There's a chance Trump and Cruz could split the crazy vote and let in a more mainstream candidate for the Republican nomination.  This election really is bananas, you can't imagine it's going to keep going the way it is, both Trump and Sanders are pretty much unelectable.

 

That word 'unelectable' gets thrown around all the time.  We've seen it with Corbyn for donks and now you've used with those two.  It's entirely possible Trump could face Sanders.  How can they both be unelectable in a two horse race?



#16 Eldar Hadzimehmedovic

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Posted 25 January 2016 - 01:53 am

It's truly fascinating.  On the face of it you'd think Trump's biggest chance is against Sanders because so many Americans either don't understand and/or are chronically afraid of democratic socialism.  But on the other hand, the inevitable hammer and sickle onslaughts on Sanders would sound weakest coming from Trump because he's already shot his bolt on bombastic scare-mongering.  Can't wait to see what happens.



#17 Rab

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Posted 25 January 2016 - 02:59 am

My point is Trump and Sanders could be so unelectable that a third party candidate like Bloomberg could emerge because the electorate is crying out for a third option.



#18 Ugly American

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Posted 25 January 2016 - 03:08 am

(No great knowledge of US politics)

 

Is Clinton a shoe in for the Democratic ticket?

 

There's no sure things at this point in a Presidential election, but 1/5 seems like the right odds to me.  Sanders will likely win New Hampshire and might pull off an upset in Iowa, but he still has made basically no inroads in the black and Latino populations and that will basically doom him once the race gets out of the rural states.  Clinton would have to seriously melt down for her to not get the nomination.

 

The Third Party Candidate idea is an interesting one in that scenario.

Bloomberg would be able to fund himself to the tune of multi-millions and would be able to buy the press and media coverage needed to push the candidates.

However, is there not a massive risk of moderate voters being split between Sanders and Bloomberg and Trump slipping into the white house on the back of it?

 

"Massive risk" if three fairly unlikely things happen, yes.  Given Sanders' position in the party, if that started to look like an eventuality, the long knives would come out of Sanders to push Democrats to vote for Bloomberg.  It would be an ugly scene.  But a very, very unlikely one.

 

It's truly fascinating.  On the face of it you'd think Trump's biggest chance is against Sanders because so many Americans either don't understand and/or are chronically afraid of democratic socialism.  But on the other hand, the inevitable hammer and sickle onslaughts on Sanders would sound weakest coming from Trump because he's already shot his bolt on bombastic scare-mongering.  Can't wait to see what happens.

 

One of the better aspects of Sanders' candidacy IMO.  They've called both Bill and Hillary socialists for decades, despite them being some of the most cautious, centrist politicians in the party.  Sanders is a candidate that lets us say, "no you morons, HE'S what a socialist looks like!"



#19 aussieh

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Posted 25 January 2016 - 05:38 am

When he wins, its sanctions time.
That's what usually happens when other nations elect presidents and PMs they/us don't approve of.

Saying that it'll probably be nuclear war and everyone's teas oot.

#20 Stephen Muddie

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Posted 26 January 2016 - 02:52 am

:rofl:


Edited by Stephen Muddie, 26 January 2016 - 02:55 am.


#21 JamboX2

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Posted 27 January 2016 - 08:06 pm

I see Trump has withdrawn from the Iowa debate over a journalist called Megyn Kelly.

He's dominated the news today and is set to tomorrow as on the night of the debate another network will broadcast an interview with him at he same time.

Smart if un-presidential as now he's getting huge amounts of broadcast coverage ahead of key rival, Ted Cruz.

#22 Peebo

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Posted 27 January 2016 - 08:47 pm

I see Trump has withdrawn from the Iowa debate over a journalist called Megyn Kelly.

He's dominated the news today and is set to tomorrow as on the night of the debate another network will broadcast an interview with him at he same time.

Smart if un-presidential as now he's getting huge amounts of broadcast coverage ahead of key rival, Ted Cruz.


Don't think it's smart at all. Yet another idiotic move which will ultimately mean he doesn't have a chance of winning the ultimate prize.

A GOP candidate alienating Fox News? Unlikely to help his cause, I'd think.

#23 Peebo

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Posted 27 January 2016 - 08:49 pm

Obviously I'd hope he doesn't win. However, is there an increased chance should Sanders pip Clinton to the nomination?

Would Sanders, a confessed Democratic Socialist, have any hope against Trump in a one on one election?

I would hope so. However,beyond the east coast and west coast states which generally are a bit more liberal, do the Democrats stand much chance?

Yes, I'd think facing Sanders would increase Trump's chances.

Yes, Sanders would have realistic hopes against Trump.

However, I'm pretty confident Clinton will win the Democrat nomination pretty comfortably and, at present, the Republicans have no viable candidate who could actually beat her.

Edited by Peebo, 27 January 2016 - 08:49 pm.


#24 JamboX2

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Posted 27 January 2016 - 10:24 pm

Yes, I'd think facing Sanders would increase Trump's chances.

Yes, Sanders would have realistic hopes against Trump.

However, I'm pretty confident Clinton will win the Democrat nomination pretty comfortably and, at present, the Republicans have no viable candidate who could actually beat her.


Would Clinton not be seen as an establishment voice in the party rather than the radical outsider that Trump is viewed as?

In that Trump would win because he'd be fresher meat politically?

I still reckon someone like Christie or Rubio may well become the nominee. Which would make November more interesting.

#25 niblick1874

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Posted 28 January 2016 - 12:07 am

Yes, I'd think facing Sanders would increase Trump's chances.

Yes, Sanders would have realistic hopes against Trump.

However, I'm pretty confident Clinton will win the Democrat nomination pretty comfortably and, at present, the Republicans have no viable candidate who could actually beat her.

As I have said before. It would take one well publicized MSM program about the Clinton's past (there for all to see and very easily proven) and she would be dead in the water, if not in jail along with her fake husband. Evan if she gets elected she can be taken down any time which is common knowledge to all and sundry.  For me, whether they go after her or not will say more than anything else about this election.   



#26 Peebo

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Posted 28 January 2016 - 06:55 am

Would Clinton not be seen as an establishment voice in the party rather than the radical outsider that Trump is viewed as?

In that Trump would win because he'd be fresher meat politically?

I still reckon someone like Christie or Rubio may well become the nominee. Which would make November more interesting.


I don't really understand the first two questions.

Re the last bit, yes, it's quite possible a more electable Republican candidate may yet emerge.

#27 Ugly American

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Posted 30 January 2016 - 07:21 pm

Would Clinton not be seen as an establishment voice in the party rather than the radical outsider that Trump is viewed as?

In that Trump would win because he'd be fresher meat politically?

I still reckon someone like Christie or Rubio may well become the nominee. Which would make November more interesting.

 

The general appeal of an "outsider" is vastly overstated, I think.

 

Do not discount the possibility of either Bush or Kasich having a breakthrough in the next month.  I'm not saying it will happen, I'm saying it's an underrated possibility.

 

Christie, on the other hand, has absolutely zero chance of being the nominee.



#28 hueyview

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Posted 30 January 2016 - 08:17 pm

Trump has absolutely no chance of winning the presidency. Zero.

i pray to god your right..............i saw the US appretice late last night, he is so.............obnoxious, and even idiots can vote, who knows.   At least Alex Salmond, to be fair, recognises the biggest mistake he made  whem First minister was giving credence to the Toxic Wig...............



#29 BigC

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Posted 31 January 2016 - 09:14 am

As I have said before. It would take one well publicized MSM program about the Clinton's past (there for all to see and very easily proven) and she would be dead in the water, if not in jail along with her fake husband. Evan if she gets elected she can be taken down any time which is common knowledge to all and sundry. For me, whether they go after her or not will say more than anything else about this election.


She's certainly lucky that Christopher Hitchens isn't around any more. His book on the Clintons didn't pull any punches.

#30 Barack

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Posted 02 February 2016 - 03:31 am

Trump beaten into 2nd place by Cruz in Iowa.

Close between Clinton & Sanders at present.

A slight victory for normality it seems, for now.

#31 Rab

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Posted 02 February 2016 - 03:43 am

Ted Cruz is possibly even more mental than Trump.



#32 Barack

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Posted 02 February 2016 - 04:37 am

Ted Cruz is possibly even more mental than Trump.

Yeah, sorry. I missed out the dripping with sarcasm smilie at the end of that last sentence.

 

Waiting for Trump to go full Canadian Bacon on Cruz, on stage soon too. :lol:



#33 Peebo

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Posted 02 February 2016 - 07:18 am

Ted Cruz is possibly even more mental than Trump.


He's certainly a scarier candidate.

#34 FWJ

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Posted 02 February 2016 - 07:55 am

Who is the most socially-liberal - it seems to be Trump, which is a bit scary. Jeb seems to be the most mainstream of the Republicans, and remember the GOP haven't won the Presidency without a Bush or Nixon on the ticket since 1928.

#35 Boris

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Posted 02 February 2016 - 08:04 am

Who is the most socially-liberal - it seems to be Trump, which is a bit scary. Jeb seems to be the most mainstream of the Republicans, and remember the GOP haven't won the Presidency without a Bush or Nixon on the ticket since 1928.


They've also lost a couple with Bush or Nixon the ticket.

#36 Don Draper

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Posted 02 February 2016 - 03:45 pm

If Sanders wins the Democratic nomination and Trump wins the Republican nomintation, Trump would win the election.

 

Neither of those things is going to happen.

 

National polls (for what they're worth) actually show Sanders beating Trump quite handily, by a wider margin than Clinton.

 

Ted Cruz is possibly even more mental than Trump.

 

This.

 

He's certainly a scarier candidate.

 

And this.

 

Cruz is a nutcase. His winning the Repub nomination is a far scarier prospect than Trump.



#37 WSTR

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Posted 02 February 2016 - 06:09 pm

I don't follow US politics so excuse my silly question. From what I've gathered from this thread, would people on here rather have Trump as president than this Cruz guy?

#38 Barack

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Posted 02 February 2016 - 06:19 pm

I don't follow US politics so excuse my silly question. From what I've gathered from this thread, would people on here rather have Trump as president than this Cruz guy?


Would you rather have Hibs win the Scottish Cup, or Hearts be liquidated and reformed in the lower leagues?

To use a football analogy, that is the choice you face with those two morons.

Can only hope Marco Rubio makes a Lazarus-style comeback.

#39 Peebo

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Posted 02 February 2016 - 07:02 pm

I don't follow US politics so excuse my silly question. From what I've gathered from this thread, would people on here rather have Trump as president than this Cruz guy?


I don't really care, but it's would be shite to have to pick on or the other.

As I said above, there is no chance Trump will become President.

Cruz, on the other hand, has demonstrated that he is electable. He's a christanoid fundamentalist nutjob with some really scary views.

I don't think he'd have much chance against Clinton, though, if it comes to it.

I suspect Trump will soon drop out, and you may see the GOP rally round someone like Rubio.

#40 Ugly American

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Posted 02 February 2016 - 09:23 pm

I don't follow US politics so excuse my silly question. From what I've gathered from this thread, would people on here rather have Trump as president than this Cruz guy?

 

Both interesting and different candidates.  Trump says basically whatever pops into his head, and if the crowd cheers, he doubles down and says it again.  He's very good at "punking" people, sort of doing an alpha male thing and looking like the big guy on stage.  Having him come in second yesterday will be a big blow to his chanes.  If he doesn't win New Hampshire, his campaign implodes, because it's all built on the "winner" image.  Basically a puffed up buffoon who talks a big game and in so doing impresses a few people as a "strong leader," and he's been on TV that he knows how to play the camera in the way a WWE wrestler does.  His "big lead" was always like 30-35% of *Republicans*, with no sign that the other 2/3 of the party was all that supportive of him or that he had that much appeal outside the party.

 

Cruz is a very different case -- he's whip smart by all accounts, but also completely arrogant about it, and is mean as a snake.  (True story -- he started a study group in law school and wouldn't allow anyone in except those who had graduated suma cum laude at Princeton, Harvard, or Yale only.)  He presents himself as an ideological conservative, and he's certainly that, but he's also completely self-serving and self-centered, and has thrown so many of his ideological allies under the bus over the years that a number of elected Republicans have been quoted anonymously as saying, quite seriously, that if he's the nominee they're voting for Clinton.  It's astounding how much high-ranking people in his own party hate him.

 

Cruz won Iowa with a really kind of funky grass roots campaign where you signed up on his website and got entered into basically a game system where you got points and rewards for making calls, knocking on doors, getting others to sign up.  It was remarkably effective, but that kind of thing works well in Iowa and does jack shit in California or Florida.  His hope is basically the same as Obama's 2008 Iowa strategy -- win Iowa as a way to break from the pack, then go on momentum.  The difference is that Obama was really charismatic, but the more Cruz is on TV the more people realize he's a complete dick.


Edited by Ugly American, 02 February 2016 - 09:23 pm.


#41 Jambo-Jimbo

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Posted 03 February 2016 - 04:02 pm

Donald Trump has thrown the toys out of the pram.

Sky news reporting that he's took to twitter and claimed that Ted Cruz stole the Iowa vote and then accused Cruz of Fraud, oh dear.

 

http://news.sky.com/...over-cruz-fraud



#42 Ugly American

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Posted 03 February 2016 - 09:41 pm

Donald Trump has thrown the toys out of the pram.

Sky news reporting that he's took to twitter and claimed that Ted Cruz stole the Iowa vote and then accused Cruz of Fraud, oh dear.

 

http://news.sky.com/...over-cruz-fraud

 

One of those instances where I wish more Americans understood the phrase "toys oot the pram" because it's perfect for this situation.



#43 niblick1874

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Posted 08 February 2016 - 05:37 pm

https://www.youtube....h?v=W3eQu457_9Y

 

 

https://www.youtube....h?v=KP1OAD9jSaI

 

 

The devil and the deep blue sea...............Meanwhile in the blue corner.


Edited by niblick1874, 08 February 2016 - 05:41 pm.


#44 aussieh

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Posted 08 February 2016 - 05:48 pm

I'd vote Sanders if I could, seems a good old guy.

#45 niblick1874

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Posted 08 February 2016 - 06:56 pm

Trump, Cruz, Clinton, Sanders,

 

Sanders financial contributors, http://www.opensecre...r&cid=N00000528

 

Cruz financial contributors, http://www.opensecre...p?cid=N00033085  ******* scary

 

Clinton and Trump? Who knows. For all we know it could be the devil.  http://www.thestar.c...t-scrutiny.html

 

Two of the above may be the truth.

 

Edit. People that get elected do not then say no to their backers.


Edited by niblick1874, 08 February 2016 - 07:04 pm.


#46 Rocco_Jambo

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Posted 08 February 2016 - 10:48 pm

Trump has absolutely no chance of winning the presidency. Zero.


That's just nonsense.

#47 niblick1874

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Posted 08 February 2016 - 11:32 pm

That's just nonsense.

I can't get away from the feeling that the whole thing is being manufactured from behind the scenes and we are not seeing the big picture yet. Bloomberg to step in when the whole thing implodes if/ when it ends up Clinton v Trump? https://en.wikipedia...chael_Bloomberg


Edited by niblick1874, 08 February 2016 - 11:38 pm.


#48 BigC

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Posted 09 February 2016 - 12:18 am

Didn't see the most recent debate but the news seems to be reporting that Rubio had a weak night and didn't manage to capitalise on the momentum he gained after finishing 3rd in Iowa ahead of all the other establishment republicans.

#49 Ugly American

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Posted 09 February 2016 - 12:18 am

I'd vote Sanders if I could, seems a good old guy.

Sanders is almost precisely the American Corbyn.

 

 

I can't get away from the feeling that the whole thing is being manufactured from behind the scenes and we are not seeing the big picture yet. Bloomberg to step in when the whole thing implodes if/ when it ends up Clinton v Trump? https://en.wikipedia...chael_Bloomberg

 

There's a shock.



#50 Ugly American

Ugly American

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Posted 09 February 2016 - 12:20 am

Didn't see the most recent debate but the news seems to be reporting that Rubio had a weak night and didn't manage to capitalise on the momentum he gained after finishing 3rd in Iowa ahead of all the other establishment republicans.

 

Christie completely humiliated him in the debate.  Results should be very interesting tomorrow.  I'm expecting Trump to narrowly win with about 30% and after that all bets are off.  At this point Trump, Cruz, and Rubio have effectively punched their ticket to keep their campaigns going into March.  Bush, Kasich, and Christie need a second or close third finish to do the same.

 

Fiorina and Carson are just in it for the money and future speaking fees at this point.